Severn School '17
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.34 (fleet 3.78) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 61–25 (71%) as crew 24–3 (89%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2017 | 3 | 22–7 | — |
| Fall 2016 | 2 | 5–2 | — |
| Spring 2016 | 3 | 18–8 | — |
| Fall 2015 | 2 | 16–8 | — |
| Spring 2015 | 2 | — | 16–3 |
| Fall 2014 | 1 | — | 8–0 |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 9 graded regattas (88 matches) the record is 64–24 against 64.4 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−0.4). 1 regatta clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 3 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 7 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017-05-06 | Saints Peter & Paul Team Race Regatta | skipper | 2.66 | 0.09 | 2–2 | 3.4 | −2.57 | 2.1 | 99% |
| 2017-04-22 | MASSA Spring Team Race Championship | skipper | 2.70 | 1.78 | 11–4 | 12.5 | −0.91 | 0.8 | 93% |
| 2017-04-01 | MDISA Maryland State Team Racing Championship | skipper | 2.78 | 2.85 | 9–1 | 9.0 | +0.07 | 0.0 | 72% |
| 2016-10-29 | MASSA Fall Team Race Championship | skipper | 2.72 | 2.88 | 5–1 | 4.9 | +0.16 | 0.0 | 73% |
| 2016-05-28 | ISSA Baker Trophy - Team Race Nationals | skipper | 2.85 | 1.73 | 4–4 | 5.4 | −1.12 | 0.9 | 94% |
| 2016-04-30 | 2016 MASSA Baker Qualifier | skipper | 2.88 | 3.72 | 13–4 | 11.0 | +0.84 | 0.9 | 20% |
| 2015-10-31 | MASSA Fall Team Race District Championship | skipper | 2.58 | 2.66 | 10–7 | 9.8 | +0.07 | 0.0 | 57% |
| 2015-10-10 | MDISA Fall Team Race Qualifier | skipper | 2.50 | 2.51 | 6–1 | 6.0 | +0.02 | 0.0 | 74% |
| 2015-05-23 | ISSA Baker Team Race Nationals | crew | 2.14 | 5.14 | 4–0 | 2.4 | ≥+3.00 | 2.6 | 12% |
| League | Name | School | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| ICSA | Stephanie Houck |  Stanford University |
'21 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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