MASSA Fall Team Race District Championship

HostAnnapolis, MD
Date10/31/2015
TypeDistrict Championship
BoatC420
ScoringTeam

#	School	Team	Rec.
1	Key School	Zags	11–3
2	Christchurch School	Seahorses	11–3
3	Norfolk Collegiate School	Oaks	10–4
4	Severn School	Admirals	10–4
5	Broadneck High School	Bruins	9–5
6	Annapolis High School	Panthers	8–6
7	Norfolk Academy	Bulldogs	8–6
8	Mercy High School	Varsity	6–8
9	Archbishop Spalding	Cavaliers	4–10
10	St. John the Baptist	Cougars	3–11
11	The Stony Brook School	Bears	2–12
11	Summit High School	Hilltoppers	2–12

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 1,528 team race matches sailed before 2015-10-31, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 68 of 90 matches (76%) with a log-loss of 0.429 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. Orderliness −0.01 ± 0.26: a typical event, more orderly than 39% of high school team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

Place	School	Pred.	Strength	Boats (skipper / crew, boat value)	Pred. win %	Record	vs forecast
1	Key School Zags	4	7.22 school −0.14	Christian Filter / Nicholas Papadopoulos 2.78 Bryan Bay / Isadora Gallanar 2.21 Harrison Koller / Declan Lombard 2.31	59%	13–4 (76%)	+3.0
2	Christchurch School Seahorses	1	8.56 school −0.07	Hector Guzman / Sally Johnson 3.27 Andy Burns / Claire Rae 2.66 Robert Bragg / Eric Demario 2.61	81%	13–4 (76%)	−0.8
3	Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks	2	7.77 school +0.24	Dreugh Phillips / Sarah Smith 2.79 Darden Purrington / Daniel Vail 2.40 11–5 Victor Layne / Nick Baker 2.31 11–5 Ellie Maus / Ashley Obermeyer 2.24 2–0	69%	12–5 (71%)	+0.3
4	Severn School Admirals	5	7.14 school +0.45	Stephen Duncan / Caroline Mcneil 1.77 Caroline Bayless / Camille White Stephanie Houck / Blair Reilly 2.58	58%	10–7 (59%)	+0.2
5	Broadneck High School Bruins	8	5.76 school +0.33	Philip Davis / Katherine Bennett 2.00 Phillip Schofield / Brigid Mckay 2.14 Adian Molesky / Kate Selley 1.08	47%	9–5 (64%)	+2.4
6	Annapolis High School Panthers	7	5.94	Porter Kavle / Jamey Macris 2.47 Remington King / Ava Walker 1.72 Nicholas Salvesen / Kimberly Leonard 1.66	50%	8–6 (57%)	+1.0
7	Norfolk Academy Bulldogs	3	6.86 school +0.15	Jessica Williams / Anna Cornetta 2.10 James Whitmore / Alek Sas 2.51 Marshall Mccraw / Emmaline Herring 2.04	66%	8–6 (57%)	−1.2
8	Mercy High School Varsity	9	4.83 school −0.12	Bridget Lawless / Sarah Chew 1.71 Nate Peck / Bridgit Patterson 6–6 Ava Esquier / Gavin First Name Last Name Graduation Year Delete Row Delete Row Delete Row Delete Row Delete Row Delete Row Bloom 1.77 6–6 Gavin First Name Last Name Graduation Year Delete Row Delete Row Delete Row Delete Row Delete Row Delete Row Bloom / William Santos 1.29 0–2 Ava Esquier / Bridgit Patterson 1.83 0–2	47%	6–8 (43%)	−0.6
9	Archbishop Spalding Cavaliers	6	6.11 school +0.41	Will Comerford / Alex Hatch 2.08 Cole Daitch / Noah Strother 1.97 Jack Irvin / Whitney Kopp	53%	4–10 (29%)	−3.4
10	St. John the Baptist Cougars	10	3.12 school +0.10	Finn Rauch / Kristi Dolan 1.05 Kai Rauch / Wendy Quatrale 0.97 Noah Scarpa / Clare Guarascio 0.80	26%	3–11 (21%)	−0.6
11	The Stony Brook School Bears	11	2.18 school +0.11	Kadin Via / Matthew Sparacio 0.68 Joshua Martin / Kimberly Cataudella 1.22 2–10 Nicholas Buscemi / Kevin Zhang 2–7 Nicholas Buscemi / Michael Bilfinger 0–5 Edward Feldt-Cipkin / Isaac Voros 0–2	16%	2–12 (14%)	−0.2
11	Summit High School Hilltoppers	12	2.13	Thomas Quinn / Juliana Rustum Danny Kane / Natalie Herr 2–10 Shannon Groskoph / William Przedpelski 2–8 Shannon Groskoph / Sarah Elia 0–4 Danny Kane / Sarah Elia 0–2	14%	2–12 (14%)	+0.0

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

Place	School	Strength	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
1	Key School	7.22	8.54	13–4	10.0	+1.32	2.1	8%
5	Broadneck High School	5.76	6.96	9–5	6.6	+1.20	1.6	11%
6	Annapolis High School	5.94	6.44	8–6	7.0	+0.50	0.3	38%
3	Norfolk Collegiate School	7.77	7.91	12–5	11.7	+0.14	0.0	55%
4	Severn School	7.14	7.21	10–7	9.8	+0.07	0.0	57%
11	Summit High School	2.13	2.15	2–12	2.0	+0.02	0.0	64%
11	The Stony Brook School	2.18	1.99	2–12	2.2	−0.20	0.0	72%
2	Christchurch School	8.56	8.15	13–4	13.8	−0.41	0.2	81%
8	Mercy High School	4.83	4.40	6–8	6.6	−0.43	0.1	80%
10	St. John the Baptist	3.12	2.63	3–11	3.6	−0.48	0.2	81%
7	Norfolk Academy	6.86	6.25	8–6	9.2	−0.61	0.4	86%
9	Archbishop Spalding	6.11	4.12	4–10	7.4	−1.99	3.6	>99%

By skipper

Skipper	School	Value	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
Adian Molesky	Broadneck High School	1.08	2.28	9–5	6.6	+1.20	1.6	11%
Remington King	Annapolis High School	1.72	2.22	8–6	7.0	+0.50	0.3	38%
Shannon Groskoph	Summit High School	0.54	0.56	2–12	2.0	+0.02	0.0	64%
Joshua Martin	The Stony Brook School	1.22	1.05	2–10	2.2	−0.17	0.0	71%
Kadin Via	The Stony Brook School	0.68	0.49	2–12	2.2	−0.20	0.0	72%
Nicholas Buscemi	The Stony Brook School	0.03	-0.17	2–12	2.2	−0.20	0.0	72%
Andy Burns	Christchurch School	2.66	2.25	13–4	13.8	−0.41	0.2	81%
Ava Esquier	Mercy High School	1.77	1.34	6–8	6.6	−0.43	0.1	80%
Kai Rauch	St. John the Baptist	0.97	0.49	3–11	3.6	−0.48	0.2	81%
Noah Scarpa	St. John the Baptist	0.80	0.32	3–11	3.6	−0.48	0.2	81%
Jack Irvin	Archbishop Spalding	1.30	-0.69	4–10	7.4	−1.99	3.6	>99%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd	#	Winner	Loser	P(winner)
1	1	Christchurch School	Severn School	78%
1	2	Annapolis High School	Broadneck High School	56%
1	3	Key School	Norfolk Collegiate School	39%	upset
1	4	Mercy High School	The Stony Brook School	89%
1	5	Norfolk Academy	Archbishop Spalding	69%
1	6	St. John the Baptist	Summit High School	75%
1	7	Key School	Christchurch School	26%	upset
1	8	Annapolis High School	Mercy High School	72%
1	9	Norfolk Collegiate School	Severn School	66%
1	10	Broadneck High School	The Stony Brook School	94%
1	11	Christchurch School	Archbishop Spalding	89%
1	12	Annapolis High School	Summit High School	96%
1	13	Key School	Norfolk Academy	57%
1	14	Mercy High School	St. John the Baptist	80%
1	15	Severn School	Archbishop Spalding	69%
1	16	Broadneck High School	Summit High School	95%
1	17	Norfolk Collegiate School	Christchurch School	36%	upset
1	18	Annapolis High School	The Stony Brook School	95%
1	19	Norfolk Academy	Severn School	46%	upset
1	20	Broadneck High School	St. John the Baptist	89%
1	21	Archbishop Spalding	Key School	29%	upset
1	22	Mercy High School	Summit High School	90%
1	23	Norfolk Collegiate School	Norfolk Academy	67%
1	24	The Stony Brook School	St. John the Baptist	34%	upset
1	25	Severn School	Key School	47%	upset
1	26	Broadneck High School	Mercy High School	68%
1	27	Christchurch School	Norfolk Academy	79%
1	28	Annapolis High School	St. John the Baptist	90%
1	29	Norfolk Collegiate School	Archbishop Spalding	79%
1	30	The Stony Brook School	Summit High School	53%
1	31	Christchurch School	Mercy High School	95%
1	32	Severn School	Broadneck High School	74%
1	33	Key School	Annapolis High School	73%
1	34	Norfolk Academy	St. John the Baptist	95%
1	35	Norfolk Collegiate School	The Stony Brook School	99%
1	36	Summit High School	Archbishop Spalding	4%	upset
1	37	Severn School	Mercy High School	86%
1	38	Christchurch School	Annapolis High School	88%
1	39	Broadneck High School	Norfolk Academy	30%	upset
1	40	Key School	Summit High School	98%
1	41	Archbishop Spalding	The Stony Brook School	95%
1	42	Norfolk Collegiate School	St. John the Baptist	97%
1	43	Christchurch School	Broadneck High School	90%
1	44	Annapolis High School	Norfolk Academy	33%	upset
1	45	Severn School	Summit High School	98%
1	46	Key School	The Stony Brook School	98%
1	47	Norfolk Collegiate School	Mercy High School	91%
1	48	Archbishop Spalding	St. John the Baptist	91%
1	49	Norfolk Academy	Summit High School	97%
1	50	Christchurch School	The Stony Brook School	99%
1	51	Key School	Broadneck High School	75%
1	52	Severn School	Annapolis High School	72%
1	53	Archbishop Spalding	Mercy High School	73%
1	54	Norfolk Collegiate School	Summit High School	98%
1	55	Christchurch School	St. John the Baptist	99%
1	56	Norfolk Academy	The Stony Brook School	98%
1	57	Annapolis High School	Archbishop Spalding	45%	upset
1	58	Norfolk Collegiate School	Broadneck High School	82%
1	59	Key School	Mercy High School	86%
1	60	Severn School	St. John the Baptist	96%
1	61	Christchurch School	Summit High School	99%
1	62	Broadneck High School	Archbishop Spalding	42%	upset
1	63	Norfolk Collegiate School	Annapolis High School	80%
1	64	Norfolk Academy	Mercy High School	82%
1	65	Severn School	The Stony Brook School	99%
1	66	Key School	St. John the Baptist	96%
1	67	Christchurch School	Key School	74%
1	68	Severn School	Norfolk Collegiate School	39%	upset
1	69	Annapolis High School	Archbishop Spalding	45%	upset
1	70	Mercy High School	Summit High School	88%
1	71	Key School	Severn School	50%
1	72	Christchurch School	Norfolk Collegiate School	65%
1	73	Broadneck High School	Norfolk Academy	31%	upset
1	74	St. John the Baptist	The Stony Brook School	65%
1	75	Severn School	Christchurch School	26%	upset
1	76	Key School	Norfolk Collegiate School	40%	upset
1	77	Norfolk Academy	Annapolis High School	67%
1	78	Mercy High School	St. John the Baptist	79%
1	79	Broadneck High School	Archbishop Spalding	42%	upset
1	80	Summit High School	The Stony Brook School	49%	upset
1	81	Broadneck High School	Annapolis High School	48%	upset
1	82	Mercy High School	The Stony Brook School	88%
1	83	Norfolk Academy	Archbishop Spalding	61%
1	84	St. John the Baptist	Summit High School	66%
5	85	Norfolk Collegiate School	Key School	60%
5	86	Christchurch School	Severn School	74%
5	87	Key School	Severn School	50%	upset
5	88	Christchurch School	Norfolk Collegiate School	65%
5	89	Norfolk Collegiate School	Severn School	60%
5	90	Key School	Christchurch School	26%	upset

Filter by team:

#					Pos.
1	Seahorses	1-2-6	def.	Admirals	3-4-5
2	Panthers	1-2-3	def.	Bruins	4-5-6
3	Zags	1-2-4	def.	Oaks	3-5-6
4	Varsity	1-2-4	def.	Bears	3-5-6
5	Bulldogs	1-2-4	def.	Cavaliers	3-5-6
6	Cougars	1-3-6	def.	Hilltoppers	2-4-5
7	Zags	1-3-6	def.	Seahorses	2-4-5
8	Panthers	1-2-4	def.	Varsity	3-5-6
9	Oaks	1-2-6	def.	Admirals	3-4-5
10	Bruins	1-2-3	def.	Bears	4-5-6
11	Seahorses	1-2-3	def.	Cavaliers	4-5-6
12	Panthers	1-2-3	def.	Hilltoppers	4-5-6
13	Zags	1-2-4	def.	Bulldogs	3-5-6
14	Varsity	1-2-3	def.	Cougars	4-5-6
15	Admirals	1-2-6	def.	Cavaliers	3-4-5
16	Bruins	1-2-3	def.	Hilltoppers	4-5-6
17	Oaks	2-3-4	def.	Seahorses	1-5-6
18	Panthers	1-2-3	def.	Bears	4-5-6
19	Bulldogs	1-2-5	def.	Admirals	3-4-6
20	Bruins	1-3-4	def.	Cougars	2-5-6
21	Cavaliers	1-2-6	def.	Zags	3-4-5
22	Varsity	1-2-5	def.	Hilltoppers	3-4-6
23	Oaks	1-2-5	def.	Bulldogs	3-4-6
24	Bears	2-3-5	def.	Cougars	1-4-6
25	Admirals	1-2-6	def.	Zags	3-4-5
26	Bruins	1-5-6	def.	Varsity	2-3-4 DSQ
27	Seahorses	1-2-3	def.	Bulldogs	4-5-6
28	Panthers	1-2-3	def.	Cougars	4-5-6
29	Oaks	1-2-6	def.	Cavaliers	3-4-5
30	Bears	1-2-6	def.	Hilltoppers	3-4-5
31	Seahorses	1-2-3	def.	Varsity	4-5-6
32	Admirals	1-2-4	def.	Bruins	3-5-6
33	Zags	1-2-6	def.	Panthers	3-4-5
34	Bulldogs	1-2-5	def.	Cougars	3-4-6
35	Oaks	1-2-4	def.	Bears	3-5-6
36	Hilltoppers	1-2-6	def.	Cavaliers	3-4-5
37	Admirals	1-2-4	def.	Varsity	3-5-6
38	Seahorses	1-2-6	def.	Panthers	3-4-5
39	Bruins	1-2-3	def.	Bulldogs	4-5-6
40	Zags	1-2-6	def.	Hilltoppers	3-4-5
41	Cavaliers	1-2-3	def.	Bears	4-5-6
42	Oaks	1-2-3	def.	Cougars	4-5-6
43	Seahorses	1-2-3	def.	Bruins	4-5-6
44	Panthers	1-2-3	def.	Bulldogs	4-5-6
45	Admirals	1-2-3	def.	Hilltoppers	4-5-6
46	Zags	1-2-5	def.	Bears	3-4-6
47	Oaks	1-2-4	def.	Varsity	3-5-6
48	Cavaliers	1-2-4 DSQ	def.	Cougars	3-5-6
49	Bulldogs	1-2-4	def.	Hilltoppers	3-5-6
50	Seahorses	1-2-5	def.	Bears	3-4-6
51	Zags	1-2-6	def.	Bruins	3-4-5
52	Admirals	1-2-5	def.	Panthers	3-4-6
53	Cavaliers	1-2-6	def.	Varsity	3-4-5
54	Oaks	1-2-3	def.	Hilltoppers	4-5-6
55	Seahorses	1-2-4	def.	Cougars	3-5-6
56	Bulldogs	1-2-4	def.	Bears	3-5-6
57	Panthers	1-2-5	def.	Cavaliers	3-4-6
58	Oaks	1-4-5	def.	Bruins	2-3-6
59	Zags	1-2-6	def.	Varsity	3-4-5
60	Admirals	1-2-3	def.	Cougars	4-5-6
61	Seahorses	1-2-3	def.	Hilltoppers	4-5-6
62	Bruins	1-4-5	def.	Cavaliers	2-3-6
63	Oaks	1-3-4	def.	Panthers	2-5-6
64	Bulldogs	1-2-4	def.	Varsity	3-5-6
65	Admirals	1-2-4	def.	Bears	3-5-6
66	Zags	1-2-4	def.	Cougars	3-5-6
67	Seahorses	1-2-4	def.	Zags	3-5-6
68	Admirals	2-3-4	def.	Oaks	1-5-6
69	Panthers	2-3-4	def.	Cavaliers	1-5-6
70	Varsity	1-2-3	def.	Hilltoppers	4-5-6
71	Zags	1-2-3	def.	Admirals	4-5-6
72	Seahorses	1-2-3	def.	Oaks	4-5-6
73	Bruins	1-3-6	def.	Bulldogs	2-4-5
74	Cougars	1-3-6	def.	Bears	2-4-5
75	Admirals	1-5-6	def.	Seahorses	2-3-4 DSQ
76	Zags	1-2-6	def.	Oaks	3-4-5
77	Bulldogs	2-3-4	def.	Panthers	1-5-6
78	Varsity	1-2-3	def.	Cougars	4-5-6
79	Bruins	1-2-6	def.	Cavaliers	3-4-5
80	Hilltoppers	2-3-4	def.	Bears	1-5-6
81	Bruins	1-3-6	def.	Panthers	2-4-5
82	Varsity	1-2-6	def.	Bears	3-4-5
83	Bulldogs	1-2-4	def.	Cavaliers	3-5-6
84	Cougars	2-3-5	def.	Hilltoppers	1-4-6
85	Oaks	1-2-5	def.	Zags	3-4-6
86	Seahorses	1-2-3	def.	Admirals	4-5-6
87	Zags	1-2-5	def.	Admirals	3-4-6
88	Seahorses	1-2-3	def.	Oaks	4-5-6
89	Oaks	1-2-5	def.	Admirals	3-4-6
90	Zags	1-2-6	def.	Seahorses	3-4-5

School	Team	Skippers	Crew
Key School	Zags	Bryan Bay '16 Christian Filter '16 Harrison Koller '17	Isadora Gallanar '17 Nicholas Papadopoulos '18 Declan Lombard '17
Christchurch School	Seahorses	Andy Burns '17 Boyd Bragg '19 Hector Guzman '16	Claire Rae '16 Eric Demario '18 Sally Johnson '18
Norfolk Collegiate School	Oaks	Darden Purrington '16 Dreugh Phillips '16 Ellie Maus '18 Victor Layne '16	Daniel Vail '17 Sarah Smith '18 Ashley Obermeyer '18 Nick Baker '16
Severn School	Admirals	Caroline Bayless '19 Stephanie Houck '17 Stephen Duncan '16	Camille White '18 Blair Reilly '18 Caroline Mcneil '18
Broadneck High School	Bruins	Adian Molesky '16 Philip Davis '16 Phillip Schofield '17	Kate Selley '16 Katherine Bennett '18 Brigid Mckay '17
Annapolis High School	Panthers	Nicholas Salvesen '18 Porter Kavle '18 Remington King '17	Kimberly Leonard '18 Jamey Macris '18 Ava Walker '20
Norfolk Academy	Bulldogs	James Whitmore '16 Jessica Williams '16 Marshall Mccraw '16	Alek Sas '18 Anna Cornetta '16 Emmaline Herring '16
Mercy High School	Varsity	Ava Esquier '16 Bridget Lawless '17 Gavin First Name Last Name Graduation Year Delete Row Delete Row Delete Row Delete Row Delete Row Delete Row Bloom '17 Nate Peck '16	Bridgit Patterson '18 Gavin First Name Last Name Graduation Year Delete Row Delete Row Delete Row Delete Row Delete Row Delete Row Bloom '17 Sarah Chew '18 William Santos '18
Archbishop Spalding	Cavaliers	Cole Daitch '16 Jack Irvin '17 Will Comerford '17	Noah Strother '16 Whitney Kopp '17 Alex Hatch '16
St. John the Baptist	Cougars	Finn Rauch '19 Kai Rauch '15 Noah Scarpa '17	Kristi Dolan '16 Wendy Quatrale '17 Clare Guarascio '18
The Stony Brook School	Bears	Edward Feldt-Cipkin '16 Joshua Martin '17 Kadin Via '17 Nicholas Buscemi '18	Isaac Voros '17 Kimberly Cataudella '16 Matthew Sparacio '18 Kevin Zhang '17 Michael Bilfinger '17
Summit High School	Hilltoppers	Danny Kane '16 Shannon Groskoph '17 Thomas Quinn '18	Natalie Herr '17 Sarah Elia '16 William Przedpelski '17 Juliana Rustum '16

Conditions — 10/31/2015 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast

Humidity 60% · Pressure 1022.4 hPa

Temperature

53°F

↑ 57°F ↓ 46°F

Feels like 49°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

4.9 kn

avg · max 6.8 kn

Gusts to 12.1 kn

From SE (140°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover51% Sunshine10.0 hrs Humidity60% Pressure1022.4 hPa

What this breeze does at Annapolis, MD — from fleet racing

Breeze: SE about 8 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In fleet races at Annapolis, MD in this breeze: a typical day (+0.01)

Nothing in this breeze favours either side in fleet racing here: results follow the ratings about as usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.01 means a rating gap counts about 1% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Annapolis, MD by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (no labelled days at Annapolis, MD: the all-venue pattern is shown).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

How team race forecasts workThree boats’ ratings, a school term and a home edge; 78.8% of held-out matches called.
Play 1, Play 2, Play 4: how team races are wonHow often each play happens, how that shifts with breeze and level, and whether a star wins differently.
Which team races go to form?Orderliness is a real property of a team race regatta and nothing known in advance predicts it.

All notes →

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