Annapolis High School '17
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.64 (fleet 2.66) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 61–59 (51%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2017 | 3 | 14–19 | — |
| Fall 2016 | 2 | 13–4 | — |
| Spring 2016 | 1 | 8–7 | — |
| Fall 2015 | 2 | 11–10 | — |
| Spring 2015 | 1 | 5–9 | — |
| Fall 2014 | 1 | 10–10 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 8 graded regattas (86 matches) the record is 46–40 against 47.3 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−1.3). 1 regatta clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 4 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 6 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017-04-22 | MASSA Spring Team Race Championship | skipper | 2.07 | 1.57 | 5–11 | 6.0 | −0.49 | 0.3 | 82% |
| 2017-04-01 | MDISA Maryland State Team Racing Championship | skipper | 2.12 | 2.24 | 6–4 | 5.8 | +0.11 | 0.0 | 61% |
| 2017-03-12 | SSA Team Race Regatta | skipper | 2.05 | 0.75 | 3–4 | 4.4 | −1.30 | 1.0 | 95% |
| 2016-10-29 | MASSA Fall Team Race Championship | skipper | 2.01 | 3.86 | 10–2 | 7.5 | +1.86 | 2.5 | 7% |
| 2016-10-08 | MDISA Fall Team Race Championship | skipper | 2.04 | 1.24 | 3–2 | 3.7 | −0.80 | 0.3 | 88% |
| 2016-04-30 | 2016 MASSA Baker Qualifier | skipper | 2.10 | 1.84 | 8–7 | 8.5 | −0.26 | 0.1 | 74% |
| 2015-10-31 | MASSA Fall Team Race District Championship | skipper | 1.72 | 2.22 | 8–6 | 7.0 | +0.50 | 0.3 | 38% |
| 2015-10-10 | MDISA Fall Team Race Qualifier | skipper | 1.77 | 0.27 | 3–4 | 4.4 | −1.50 | 1.2 | 96% |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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