| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Severn School | Admirals | 6–1 |
| 2 |  |
Archbishop Spalding | Cavaliers | 6–1 |
| 3 |  |
Key School | Zags | 6–1 |
| 4 |  |
Annapolis High School | Panthers | 3–4 |
| 5 |  |
Broadneck High School | Bruins | 3–4 |
| 6 |  |
Edmund Burke School | Bengals | 2–5 |
| 7 |  |
St. Mary's High School (MD) | Saints | 2–5 |
| 8 |  |
Severna Park | Falcons | 0–7 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 1,395 team race matches sailed before 2015-10-10, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 24 of 28 matches (86%) with a log-loss of 0.388 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. Orderliness +0.04 ± 0.41: a typical event, more orderly than 43% of high school team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Archbishop Spalding | 5.66 | 8.24 | 6–1 | 4.0 | +2.59 | 2.7 | 7% |
| 3 | Key School | 7.10 | 7.95 | 6–1 | 5.5 | +0.85 | 0.2 | 51% |
| 7 | St. Mary's High School (MD) | 3.42 | 4.04 | 2–5 | 1.5 | +0.63 | 0.2 | 48% |
| 1 | Severn School | 7.68 | 7.70 | 6–1 | 6.0 | +0.02 | 0.0 | 74% |
| 6 | Edmund Burke School | 4.16 | 3.84 | 2–5 | 2.3 | −0.32 | 0.0 | 77% |
| 5 | Broadneck High School | 5.37 | 4.71 | 3–4 | 3.6 | −0.66 | 0.2 | 85% |
| 4 | Annapolis High School | 6.11 | 4.61 | 3–4 | 4.4 | −1.50 | 1.2 | 96% |
| 8 | Severna Park | 2.53 | -0.47 | 0–7 | 0.8 | ≤−3.00 | 1.2 | >99% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ian Mathiesen | St. Mary's High School (MD) | 1.05 | 1.67 | 2–5 | 1.5 | +0.63 | 0.2 | 48% |
| Adian Molesky | Broadneck High School | 0.85 | 0.20 | 3–4 | 3.6 | −0.66 | 0.2 | 85% |
| Remington King | Annapolis High School | 1.77 | 0.27 | 3–4 | 4.4 | −1.50 | 1.2 | 96% |
| Kate Riley | Severna Park | 0.73 | -2.27 | 0–7 | 0.8 | ≤−3.00 | 1.2 | >99% |
| Andrew Vernon | Severna Park | 0.65 | -2.35 | 0–7 | 0.8 | ≤−3.00 | 1.2 | >99% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Zags | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Bengals | 4-5-6 |
| 2 | |
Admirals | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Bruins | 2-4-6 |
| 3 | |
Cavaliers | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Falcons | 3-4-6 |
| 4 | |
Saints | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Panthers | 1-4-6 |
| 5 | |
Bruins | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Bengals | 2-4-6 |
| 6 | |
Cavaliers | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Zags | 3-4-5 |
| 7 | |
Admirals | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Saints | 3-5-6 |
| 8 | |
Panthers | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Falcons | 3-5-6 |
| 9 | |
Cavaliers | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Bruins | 2-3-6 |
| 10 | |
Bengals | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Saints | 1-5-6 |
| 11 | |
Zags | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Falcons | 4-5-6 |
| 12 | |
Admirals | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Panthers | 1-4-6 |
| 13 | |
Cavaliers | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Saints | 4-5-6 |
| 14 | |
Bruins | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Falcons | 3-5-6 |
| 15 | |
Admirals | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Bengals | 4-5-6 |
| 16 | |
Zags | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Panthers | 2-3-6 |
| 17 | |
Saints | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Falcons | 2-5-6 |
| 18 | |
Admirals | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Cavaliers | 1-5-6 |
| 19 | |
Zags | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Bruins | 3-4-5 |
| 20 | |
Panthers | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Bengals | 3-4-6 |
| 21 | |
Admirals | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Falcons | 3-5-6 |
| 22 | |
Zags | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Saints | 4-5-6 |
| 23 | |
Cavaliers | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Bengals | 4-5-6 |
| 24 | |
Panthers | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Bruins | 3-5-6 |
| 25 | |
Zags | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Admirals | 2-3-6 |
| 26 | |
Bengals | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Falcons | 4-5-6 |
| 27 | |
Bruins | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Saints | 3-4-6 |
| 28 | |
Cavaliers | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Panthers | 1-5-6 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.02 means a rating gap counts about 2% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
