Key School '16
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.80 (fleet 2.91) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 42–33 (56%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2016 | 1 | 9–10 | — |
| Fall 2015 | 2 | 19–5 | — |
| Spring 2015 | 1 | 6–9 | — |
| Fall 2014 | 1 | 8–9 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 3 graded regattas (43 matches) the record is 28–15 against 26.4 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+1.6). 1 regatta clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 1 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 3 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016-04-30 | 2016 MASSA Baker Qualifier | skipper | 2.59 | 1.95 | 9–10 | 11.0 | −0.64 | 0.7 | 89% |
| 2015-10-31 | MASSA Fall Team Race District Championship | skipper | 2.21 | 3.53 | 13–4 | 10.0 | +1.32 | 2.1 | 8% |
| 2015-10-10 | MDISA Fall Team Race Qualifier | skipper | 2.23 | 3.08 | 6–1 | 5.5 | +0.85 | 0.2 | 51% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| 2016 MASSA District Mallory Championship | Skipper | B | 6 | 5.0 | 2.44 |
| 2016 MASSA Baker Qualifier | Skipper | TR | 17 | 47% | — |
| Fall 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| MDISA Fall Team Race Qualifier | Skipper | TR | 7 | 86% | — |
| MASSA Fall Team Race District Championship | Skipper | TR | 14 | 79% | — |
| 2015 Atlantic Coast Championship | Skipper | B | 5 | 6.4 | 1.38 |
| Spring 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| MASSA District Baker Qualifier | Skipper | TR | — | — | — |
| MASSA 2015 Mallory Qualifier | Skipper | B | 12 | 5.8 | 1.73 |
| Mallory Trophy | Skipper | B | 16 | 12.7 | 0.40 |
| Fall 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| MASSA 2014 Fall Team Race Champs | Skipper | TR | 17 | 47% | — |
| MASSA 2014 Fall Fleet Championship | Skipper | B | 17 | 5.9 | 1.78 |
| 2014 Atlantic Coast Championship | Skipper | B | 12 | 8.2 | 1.07 |
| League | Name | School | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| ICSA | Bryan Bay |  Virginia Tech |
'21 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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