2016 MASSA Baker Qualifier

Pre-event forecast?

Fitted on the 1,892 team race matches sailed before 2016-04-30, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 65 of 81 matches (80%) with a log-loss of 0.478 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went about as expected for the forecast. Orderliness +0.19 ± 0.28: a typical event, more orderly than 55% of high school team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

Place	School	Pred.	Strength	Boats (skipper / crew, boat value)	Pred. win %	Record	vs forecast
1	Christchurch School Seahorses	1	8.96 school −0.12	Austen Freda / Eric Demario 2.56 Robert Bragg / Alara Sahin 2.89 Hector Guzman / Sally Johnson 3.60 13–3 Brendan Little / Thomas Walker 2.78 1–0	73%	14–3 (82%)	+1.6
2	Severn School Admirals	2	8.53 school +0.44	Connor Bayless / Caroline Mcneil 3.06 Stephanie Houck / Blair Reilly 2.88 Stephen Duncan / Aidan Morgan 2.02	65%	13–4 (76%)	+2.0
3	Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks	3	8.35 school +0.22	Victor Layne / Nick Baker 2.59 Darden Purrington / Daniel Vail 2.52 Dreugh Phillips / Sarah Smith 2.99 10–8 Ellie Maus / Chris Robertson 2.52 1–0	62%	11–8 (58%)	−0.7
4	Key School Zags	4	8.16	Christian Filter / Nicholas Papadopoulos 2.96 Harrison Koller / Declan Lombard 2.56 Bryan Bay / Isadora Gallanar 2.59 8–10 Bryan Bay / Noah Chapman 2.40 1–0	58%	9–10 (47%)	−2.0
5	Archbishop Spalding Cavaliers	8	6.85	Will Comerford / Alex Hatch 2.24 Cole Daitch / Noah Strother 2.15 Jake Vickers / Caroline Kelly 2.20	36%	8–8 (50%)	+2.3
6	Norfolk Academy Bulldogs	6	7.74 school +0.08	Gray Kiger / Alek Sas 2.68 James Whitmore / Anna Cornetta 2.61 Jessica Williams / Marshall Mccraw 2.31 4–5 Marshall Mccraw / Jessica Williams 2.34 2–3	53%	6–8 (43%)	−1.5
7	Annapolis High School Panthers	5	6.81 school +0.07	Porter Kavle / Ava Walker 2.69 Remington King / Kimberly Leonard 2.10 Nicholas Salvesen / George Kaye 1.87	57%	8–7 (53%)	−0.6
8	Southern Regional High School Rams	7	5.91	Emily Haig / Sam Westby 1.99 Tom Green / Michael Scales 1.83 Dana Haig / Paul Reiff 1.75	41%	7–8 (47%)	+0.8
9	Mercy High School Varsity	9	5.45 school −0.16	Nate Peck / William Santos 1.58 Ava Esquier / Gavin First Name Last Name Graduation Year Delete Row Delete Row Delete Row Delete Row Delete Row Delete Row Bloom 2.02 Bridget Lawless / Sarah Chew 1.87	33%	5–10 (33%)	+0.0
10	Phoebus High School Phantoms	10	4.13 school +0.55	Neilson Woodfield / Mateo Burt 1.27 Kasey Cordner / William Thornton 0.65 Blake Harrington / Ricky Cordner 1.58 0–10 Blake Harrington / Hunter Lawrence 1.43 0–5	14%	0–15 (0%)	−2.1

Surprisal: who beat their rating?

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

Place	School	Strength	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
5	Archbishop Spalding	6.85	7.76	8–8	5.7	+0.91	1.2	15%
2	Severn School	8.53	9.37	13–4	11.0	+0.84	0.9	20%
1	Christchurch School	8.96	9.70	14–3	12.4	+0.75	0.6	28%
8	Southern Regional High School	5.91	6.31	7–8	6.2	+0.40	0.2	41%
9	Mercy High School	5.45	5.47	5–10	5.0	+0.02	0.0	61%
3	Norfolk Collegiate School	8.35	8.11	11–8	11.7	−0.24	0.1	73%
7	Annapolis High School	6.81	6.55	8–7	8.5	−0.26	0.1	74%
4	Key School	8.16	7.52	9–10	11.0	−0.64	0.7	89%
6	Norfolk Academy	7.74	7.05	6–8	7.5	−0.69	0.6	88%
10	Phoebus High School	4.13	1.13	0–15	2.1	≤−3.00	2.9	>99%

By skipper

Skipper	School	Value	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
Austen Freda	Christchurch School	2.56	3.31	14–3	12.4	+0.75	0.6	28%
Tom Green	Southern Regional High School	1.83	2.23	7–8	6.2	+0.40	0.2	41%
Ava Esquier	Mercy High School	2.02	2.04	5–10	5.0	+0.02	0.0	61%
Remington King	Annapolis High School	2.10	1.84	8–7	8.5	−0.26	0.1	74%
Neilson Woodfield	Phoebus High School	1.27	-1.73	0–15	2.1	≤−3.00	2.9	>99%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

#	Winner				Loser		Pos.
1		Cavaliers	1-2-5	def.		Panthers	3-4-6
2		Oaks	2-3-5	def.		Bulldogs	1-4-6
3		Seahorses	1-2-3	def.		Varsity	4-5-6
4		Rams	2-3-4	def.		Phantoms	1-5-6
5		Zags	1-3-5	def.		Panthers	2-4-6
6		Bulldogs	1-3-4	def.		Admirals	2-5-6
7		Cavaliers	1-2-6	def.		Varsity	3-4-5
8		Oaks	1-2-4	def.		Rams	3-5-6
9		Seahorses	1-2-4	def.		Zags	3-5-6
10		Admirals	1-2-5	def.		Phantoms	3-4-6
11		Panthers	2-3-4	def.		Varsity	1-5-6
12		Rams	1-4-5	def.		Bulldogs	2-3-6
13		Zags	1-2-3	def.		Cavaliers	4-5-6
14		Admirals	1-2-5	def.		Oaks	3-4-6
15		Seahorses	1-2-6	def.		Panthers	3-4-5
16		Bulldogs	1-2-3	def.		Phantoms	4-5-6
17		Zags	1-2-4	def.		Varsity	3-5-6
18		Admirals	1-4-5	def.		Rams	2-3-6
19		Seahorses	2-3-4	def.		Cavaliers	1-5-6
20		Oaks	1-2-4	def.		Phantoms	3-5-6
21		Bulldogs	1-2-6	def.		Panthers	3-4-5
22		Zags	1-2-4	def.		Rams	3-5-6
23		Admirals	1-2-6	def.		Varsity	3-4-5
24		Seahorses	1-2-5	def.		Phantoms	3-4-6
25		Cavaliers	1-2-4	def.		Oaks	3-5-6
26		Panthers	1-2-4	def.		Rams	3-5-6
27		Zags	1-4-5	def.		Bulldogs	2-3-6
28		Seahorses	1-2-5	def.		Admirals	3-4-6
29		Varsity	1-3-5	def.		Phantoms	2-4-6
30		Rams	1-2-6	def.		Cavaliers	3-4-5
31		Oaks	1-2-6	def.		Panthers	3-4-5
32		Admirals	1-2-6	def.		Zags	3-4-5
33		Bulldogs	1-2-4	def.		Varsity	3-5-6
34		Cavaliers	1-2-5	def.		Phantoms	3-4-6
35		Seahorses	1-4-5	def.		Oaks	2-3-6
36		Admirals	1-4-5	def.		Panthers	2-3-6
37		Rams	1-3-4	def.		Varsity	2-5-6
38		Zags	1-2-5	def.		Phantoms	3-4-6
39		Bulldogs	2-3-4	def.		Seahorses	1-5-6
40		Admirals	1-3-5	def.		Cavaliers	2-4-6
41		Oaks	1-2-5	def.		Varsity	3-4-6
42		Panthers	1-2-5	def.		Phantoms	3-4-6
43		Seahorses	1-2-6	def.		Rams	3-4-5
44		Cavaliers	1-2-6	def.		Bulldogs	3-4-5
45		Oaks	2-3-4	def.		Zags	1-5-6
70		Panthers	1-2-4	def.		Varsity	3-5-6
71		Rams	1-2-4	def.		Phantoms	3-5-6
72		Panthers	1-2-3	def.		Phantoms	4-5-6
73		Varsity	1-4-5	def.		Rams	2-3-6
74		Varsity	1-2-4	def.		Phantoms	3-5-6
75		Panthers	1-2-5	def.		Rams	3-4-6
76		Panthers	1-2-3	def.		Varsity	4-5-6
77		Rams	1-2-4	def.		Phantoms	3-5-6
78		Panthers	1-2-3	def.		Phantoms	4-5-6
79		Varsity	2-3-5	def.		Rams	1-4-6
80		Varsity	2-3-4	def.		Phantoms	1-5-6
81		Rams	1-3-6	def.		Panthers	2-4-5
64		Admirals	1-4-5	def.		Oaks	2-3-6
65		Seahorses	1-2-6	def.		Zags	3-4-5
66		Admirals	2-3-4	def.		Zags	1-5-6
67		Seahorses	2-3-5	def.		Oaks	1-4-6
68		Oaks	2-3-4	def.		Zags	1-5-6
69		Admirals	1-3-5	def.		Seahorses	2-4-6
46		Oaks	1-2-6	def.		Zags	3-4-5
47		Cavaliers	1-2-6	def.		Admirals	3-4-5
48		Seahorses	1-2-3	def.		Bulldogs	4-5-6
49		Admirals	1-3-6	def.		Oaks	2-4-5
50		Bulldogs	1-3-5	def.		Zags	2-4-6
51		Seahorses	1-2-4	def.		Cavaliers	3-5-6
52		Admirals	1-2-6	def.		Bulldogs	3-4-5
53		Cavaliers	2-3-4	def.		Oaks	1-5-6
54		Zags	1-2-4	def.		Seahorses	3-5-6
55		Cavaliers	1-2-6	def.		Bulldogs	3-4-5
56		Admirals	1-2-5	def.		Zags	3-4-6
57		Seahorses	1-3-4	def.		Oaks	2-5-6
58		Zags	1-2-6	def.		Cavaliers	3-4-5
59		Oaks	1-2-6	def.		Bulldogs	3-4-5
60		Seahorses	1-2-4	def.		Admirals	3-5-6
61		Oaks	1-2-6	def.		Cavaliers	3-4-5
62		Zags	1-4-5	def.		Cavaliers	2-3-6
63		Oaks	1-4-5	def.		Zags	2-3-6

	School	Team	Skippers	Crew
	Christchurch School	Seahorses	Austen Freda '17 Boyd Bragg '19 Brendan Little '18 Hector Guzman '16	Eric Demario '18 Alara Sahin '18 Thomas Walker '17 Sally Johnson '18
	Severn School	Admirals	Connor Bayless '17 Stephanie Houck '17 Stephen Duncan '16	Caroline Mcneil '18 Blair Reilly '18 Aidan Morgan '17
	Norfolk Collegiate School	Oaks	Darden Purrington '16 Dreugh Phillips '16 Ellie Maus '18 Victor Layne '16	Daniel Vail '17 Sarah Smith '18 Chris Robertson '19 Nick Baker '16
	Key School	Zags	Bryan Bay '16 Christian Filter '16 Harrison Koller '17	Isadora Gallanar '17 Noah Chapman '16 Nicholas Papadopoulos '18 Declan Lombard '17
	Archbishop Spalding	Cavaliers	Cole Daitch '16 Jake Vickers '18 Will Comerford '17	Noah Strother '16 Caroline Kelly '19 Alex Hatch '16
	Norfolk Academy	Bulldogs	Gray Kiger '16 James Whitmore '16 Jessica Williams '16 Marshall Mccraw '16	Alek Sas '18 Anna Cornetta '16 Marshall Mccraw '16 Jessica Williams '16
	Annapolis High School	Panthers	Nicholas Salvesen '18 Porter Kavle '18 Remington King '17	George Kaye '18 Ava Walker '20 Kimberly Leonard '18
	Southern Regional High School	Rams	Dana Haig '18 Emily Haig '17 Tom Green '19	Paul Reiff '17 Sam Westby '16 Michael Scales '16
	Mercy High School	Varsity	Ava Esquier '16 Bridget Lawless '17 Nate Peck '16	Gavin First Name Last Name Graduation Year Delete Row Delete Row Delete Row Delete Row Delete Row Delete Row Bloom '17 Sarah Chew '18 William Santos '18
	Phoebus High School	Phantoms	Blake Harrington '18 Kasey Cordner '16 Neilson Woodfield '16	Ricky Cordner '19 Hunter Lawrence '17 William Thornton '17 Mateo Burt '16