Norfolk Collegiate School '16
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.37 (fleet 2.21) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 73–41 (64%) as crew 7–0 (100%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2016 | 3 | 26–10 | 7–0 |
| Fall 2015 | 2 | 19–6 | — |
| Spring 2015 | 3 | 18–18 | — |
| Fall 2014 | 1 | 10–7 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 7 graded regattas (79 matches) the record is 55–24 against 53.4 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+1.6). 2 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 1 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 5 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016-05-28 | National Invitational Tournament | skipper | 2.41 | 5.41 | 12–0 | 10.5 | ≥+3.00 | 2.1 | 20% |
| 2016-04-30 | 2016 MASSA Baker Qualifier | skipper | 2.52 | 2.29 | 11–8 | 11.7 | −0.24 | 0.1 | 73% |
| 2016-04-23 | VISA Maury 3v3 Team Race Regatta | skipper | 2.41 | 2.71 | 3–2 | 2.7 | +0.29 | 0.0 | 59% |
| 2016-04-23 | VISA Maury 3v3 Team Race Regatta | crew | 2.41 | 5.41 | 7–0 | 6.6 | ≥+3.00 | 0.6 | 64% |
| 2015-10-31 | MASSA Fall Team Race District Championship | skipper | 2.40 | 2.54 | 11–5 | 10.7 | +0.14 | 0.0 | 55% |
| 2015-10-24 | VISA NCS 3x3 Team Race Championship | skipper | 2.34 | 4.03 | 8–1 | 6.4 | +1.69 | 1.4 | 19% |
| 2015-05-23 | ISSA Baker Team Race Nationals | skipper | 2.15 | 1.12 | 3–8 | 4.8 | −1.03 | 1.0 | 93% |
| League | Name | School | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| ICSA | Darden Purrington |  U. S. Coast Guard Academy |
'20 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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