| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Christchurch School | Seahorses | 10–1 |
| 2 |  |
Norfolk Collegiate School | Oaks 1 | 10–1 |
| 3 |  |
Norfolk Academy | Bulldogs | 7–4 |
| 4 | |
Norfolk Collegiate School | Oaks 2 | 5–6 |
| 5 |  |
Phoebus High School | Phantoms | 4–4 |
| 6 |  |
Hampton Roads Academy | Navigators | 2–6 |
| 6 |  |
Poquoson High School | Islanders | 2–6 |
| 8 |  |
York High School | Varsity | 2–6 |
| 9 |  |
Kecoughtan High School | Warriors | 0–8 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 1,667 team race matches sailed before 2016-04-23, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 40 of 43 matches (93%) with a log-loss of 0.240 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. Orderliness +0.62 ± 0.35: an orderly event, more orderly than 88% of high school team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Christchurch School Seahorses | 7.43 | 8.89 | 11–1 | 9.6 | +1.45 | 1.0 | 25% |
| 2 | Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks 1 | 7.78 | 8.40 | 10–2 | 9.3 | +0.62 | 0.2 | 45% |
| 5 | Phoebus High School Phantoms | 3.98 | 4.55 | 4–4 | 3.5 | +0.57 | 0.2 | 52% |
| 6 | Poquoson High School Islanders | 2.20 | 2.63 | 2–6 | 1.7 | +0.43 | 0.1 | 55% |
| 3 | Norfolk Academy Bulldogs | 6.68 | 6.45 | 7–4 | 7.3 | −0.23 | 0.0 | 74% |
| 4 | Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks 2 | 5.38 | 5.03 | 5–6 | 5.4 | −0.36 | 0.1 | 78% |
| 8 | York High School Varsity | 2.84 | 2.37 | 2–6 | 2.4 | −0.48 | 0.1 | 81% |
| 6 | Hampton Roads Academy Navigators | 3.38 | 2.25 | 2–6 | 3.0 | −1.13 | 0.6 | 92% |
| 9 | Kecoughtan High School Warriors | 1.11 | -1.89 | 0–8 | 0.8 | ≤−3.00 | 1.2 | >99% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austen Freda | Christchurch School | 2.01 | 3.46 | 11–1 | 9.6 | +1.45 | 1.0 | 25% |
| Joe Morrison | Norfolk Collegiate School | 0.93 | 1.60 | 3–2 | 2.7 | +0.67 | 0.1 | 64% |
| Neilson Woodfield | Phoebus High School | 1.15 | 1.72 | 4–4 | 3.5 | +0.57 | 0.2 | 52% |
| Wilson Hatchett | Poquoson High School | 1.05 | 1.48 | 2–6 | 1.7 | +0.43 | 0.1 | 55% |
| Catherine Gilmore | Poquoson High School | -0.01 | 0.42 | 2–6 | 1.7 | +0.43 | 0.1 | 55% |
| Jack Mckenna | Poquoson High School | 0.92 | 1.35 | 2–6 | 1.7 | +0.43 | 0.1 | 55% |
| Zane Morris | York High School | 1.25 | 0.77 | 2–6 | 2.4 | −0.48 | 0.1 | 81% |
| Neal Cameron | Hampton Roads Academy | 0.70 | -0.43 | 2–6 | 3.0 | −1.13 | 0.6 | 92% |
| Sam Brady | Kecoughtan High School | 0.72 | -2.27 | 0–8 | 0.8 | ≤−3.00 | 1.2 | >99% |
| Cole Handly | Kecoughtan High School | 0.81 | -2.19 | 0–8 | 0.8 | ≤−3.00 | 1.2 | >99% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Seahorses | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Navigators | 3-5-6 |
| 2 | |
Bulldogs | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Warriors | 4-5-6 |
| 3 | |
Oaks 1 | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Oaks 2 | 3-4-5 |
| 4 | |
Phantoms | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Islanders | 2-3-6 |
| 5 | |
Seahorses | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Varsity | 3-5-6 |
| 6 | |
Navigators | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Warriors | 4-5-6 |
| 7 | |
Oaks 1 | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Bulldogs | 3-4-5 |
| 8 | |
Oaks 2 | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Phantoms | 2-3-6 |
| 9 | |
Islanders | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Varsity | 2-5-6 |
| 10 | |
Seahorses | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Warriors | 3-4-6 |
| 11 | |
Bulldogs | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Navigators | 4-5-6 |
| 12 | |
Oaks 1 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Phantoms | 4-5-6 |
| 13 | |
Oaks 2 | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Islanders | 3-4-6 |
| 14 | |
Seahorses | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Bulldogs | 3-4-5 |
| 15 | |
Varsity | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Navigators | 2-4-5 |
| 16 | |
Oaks 1 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Warriors | 4-5-6 |
| 17 | |
Seahorses | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Islanders | 3-4-5 |
| 18 | |
Oaks 2 | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Varsity | 3-4-6 |
| 19 | |
Bulldogs | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Phantoms | 1-5-6 |
| 20 | |
Navigators | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Islanders | 1-5-6 |
| 21 | |
Seahorses | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Oaks 1 | 1-5-6 |
| 22 | |
Varsity | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Warriors | 3-4-6 |
| 23 | |
Bulldogs | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Oaks 2 | 3-4-6 |
| 24 | |
Phantoms | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Navigators | 3-5-6 |
| 25 | |
Oaks 1 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Islanders | 4-5-6 |
| 26 | |
Bulldogs | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Varsity | 4-5-6 |
| 27 | |
Oaks 2 | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Warriors | 1-5-6 |
| 28 | |
Seahorses | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Phantoms | 4-5-6 |
| 29 | |
Oaks 1 | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Varsity | 3-4-6 |
| 30 | |
Oaks 2 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Navigators | 4-5-6 |
| 31 | |
Bulldogs | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Islanders | 3-5-6 |
| 32 | |
Phantoms | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Warriors | 2-5-6 |
| 33 | |
Seahorses | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Oaks 2 | 3-4-6 |
| 34 | |
Oaks 1 | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Navigators | 3-5-6 |
| 35 | |
Islanders | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Warriors | 1-4-6 |
| 36 | |
Phantoms | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Varsity | 4-5-6 |
| 37 | |
Oaks 1 | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Bulldogs | 3-4-6 |
| 38 | |
Seahorses | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Oaks 2 | 4-5-6 |
| 39 | |
Bulldogs | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Oaks 2 | 2-5-6 |
| 40 | |
Oaks 1 | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Seahorses | 3-4-5 |
| 41 | |
Oaks 1 | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Oaks 2 | 3-5-6 |
| 42 | |
Seahorses | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Bulldogs | 4-5-6 DNS,DNS,DNS |
| 43 | |
Seahorses | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Oaks 1 | 1-4-6 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.01 means a rating gap counts about 1% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
