Phoebus High School '18
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.96 (fleet 1.54) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 19–34 (36%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2017 | 1 | 6–2 | — |
| Spring 2016 | 2 | 4–19 | — |
| Fall 2015 | 1 | 5–7 | — |
| Spring 2015 | 1 | 4–6 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 4 graded regattas (43 matches) the record is 15–28 against 14.1 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+0.9). 1 regatta clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 1 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 6 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017-04-22 | VISA HRA 2v2 Team Race Regatta | skipper | 1.34 | 2.01 | 6–2 | 5.2 | +0.67 | 0.3 | 42% |
| 2016-04-30 | 2016 MASSA Baker Qualifier | skipper | 1.58 | -1.42 | 0–15 | 2.1 | ≤−3.00 | 2.9 | >99% |
| 2016-04-23 | VISA Maury 3v3 Team Race Regatta | skipper | 1.45 | 2.02 | 4–4 | 3.5 | +0.57 | 0.2 | 52% |
| 2015-10-24 | VISA NCS 3x3 Team Race Championship | skipper | 1.36 | 3.32 | 5–7 | 3.3 | +1.96 | 2.1 | 8% |
| League | Name | School | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| ISSA | Blake Harrington |  Hampton Roads Academy |
'18 |
| ISSA | Blake Harrington |  Norfolk Academy |
'18 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
To have this profile removed, email quinnbrighton2005@gmail.com.
