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VISA Maury Fleet Race Regatta

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 1 8 6 14
2 Norfolk Collegiate School Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks 1 13 11 24
3 Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 2 21 40 61
4 Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 3 23 45 68
5 Norfolk Collegiate School Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks 2 49 24 73
6 York High School York High School Varsity 31 45 76
7 Kecoughtan High School Kecoughtan High School Warriors 44 33 77
8 Poquoson High School Poquoson High School Islanders 51 31 82
9 Norfolk Academy Norfolk Academy Bulldogs 1 53 37 90
10 Nansemond-Suffolk Academy Nansemond-Suffolk Academy Saints 45 63 108
11 Hampton Roads Academy Hampton Roads Academy Navigators 1 51 63 114
12 Phoebus High School Phoebus High School Phantoms 51 64 115
13 Hampton Roads Academy Hampton Roads Academy Navigators 2 71 48 119
14 Maury High School Maury High School Commodores 50 76 126
15 Norfolk Academy Norfolk Academy Bulldogs 2 79 71 150
16 Norfolk Academy Norfolk Academy Bulldogs 3 87 68 155
17 Grafton High School Grafton High School Varsity 72 85 157
18 Hampton High School Hampton High School Crabbers 83 92 175
19 Walsingham Academy Walsingham Academy Trojans 98 79 177
20 Norfolk Academy Norfolk Academy Bulldogs 4 102 84 186
21 Catholic High School Catholic High School Crusaders 1 82 106 188
22 St. Christopher's School St. Christopher's School Saints 106 103 209
23 Catholic High School Catholic High School Crusaders 2 106 108 214
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 TOT Sailors
Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 1 1 2 1 1 3 8 Boyd Bragg '19
Thomas Walker '17
Norfolk Collegiate School Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks 1 4 4 2 2 1 13 Daniel Vail '17
Chris Robertson '19
Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 2 2 7 4 3 5 21 Brendan Little '18
Carson Rozell '19
Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 3 3 1 3 5 11 23 Nathan Smith '20
Sally Johnson '18
York High School York High School Varsity 5 5 11 4 6 31 Zane Morris '18
Kylee Hockaday '17
Kecoughtan High School Kecoughtan High School Warriors 8 3 5 15 13 44 Sam Brady '19
Ryan Nguyen '20
Nansemond-Suffolk Academy Nansemond-Suffolk Academy Saints 12 6 9 11 7 45 Harrison Parker '18
T. J. Argust '18
Norfolk Collegiate School Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks 2 13 10 12 12 2 49 Parker Purrington '19
Ray Domena '19
Maury High School Maury High School Commodores 7 9 13 13 8 50 Tyler Cason '18 [1-2, 5]
Connor Mccrillis '20 [3-4]
Kate Weaver '18 [1-2]
Clare Ruedisueli '17 [3-4]
Kayla Washington '17 [5]
Phoebus High School Phoebus High School Phantoms 9 8 14 8 12 51 Blake Harrington '18
Hunter Lawrence '17
Poquoson High School Poquoson High School Islanders 10 13 8 6 14 51 Wilson Hatchett '17
Jordan Hillis '17
Hampton Roads Academy Hampton Roads Academy Navigators 1 15 12 10 10 4 51 Henry Eley '18 [1-5]
Larry Rogers '19 [1-4]
Connor Duggan '19 [5]
Norfolk Academy Norfolk Academy Bulldogs 1 6 DSQ 6 7 10 53 Jack Whitmore '19
Anna Heaton '18
Hampton Roads Academy Hampton Roads Academy Navigators 2 18 18 7 9 19 71 Jared Cronin '17 [1-5]
Kyrsta Rutherford '19 [1-4]
Olivia Basco '19 [5]
Grafton High School Grafton High School Varsity 11 11 18 17 15 72 Haydon Gould '19
Madeleine Etheridge '19
Norfolk Academy Norfolk Academy Bulldogs 2 16 BKD DSQ 14 9 79 Michael Hostutler '20
Hans Christoffersen '18
Catholic High School Catholic High School Crusaders 1 14 15 16 19 18 82 Jake Kiggans '19 [1-5]
Charles Schoening '19 [1-2, 5]
Maggie Mcdonald '19 [3-4]
Hampton High School Hampton High School Crabbers 17 14 17 18 17 83 Tyler Bevington '19 [1-5]
Ricky Cordner '19 [1-2, 5]
Anna Patterson '16 [3-4]
Norfolk Academy Norfolk Academy Bulldogs 3 19 21 15 16 16 87 Ellie Whitmore '17
Gordon Kitchener '17
Walsingham Academy Walsingham Academy Trojans 20 16 21 20 21 98 Morgan Kelly '17
Colin Wilson '18
Norfolk Academy Norfolk Academy Bulldogs 4 22 17 19 21 23 102 Jennifer Permenter '21
Graham Barbour '17
Catholic High School Catholic High School Crusaders 2 21 20 20 23 22 106 Nick Segerblom '17
Matt Beauchamp '17
St. Christopher's School St. Christopher's School Saints 23 19 22 22 20 106 Harrison Clary '18
Kaavya Shetty '18
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 TOT Sailors
Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 1 1 1 1 1 2 6 Benton Amthor '19
Eric Demaro '18
Norfolk Collegiate School Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks 1 2 2 2 2 3 11 Ellie Maus '18
Matt Wright '19
Norfolk Collegiate School Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks 2 3 3 3 8 7 24 Hunter Kahler '17
Chapman Holt '20
Poquoson High School Poquoson High School Islanders 12 5 4 6 4 31 Jack Mckenna '20
Devon Bailey '18
Kecoughtan High School Kecoughtan High School Warriors 4 10 5 9 5 33 Cole Handly '19 [1-5]
Grace Joyner '19 [1-2]
Emily Butler '19 [3-5]
Norfolk Academy Norfolk Academy Bulldogs 1 13 9 6 3 6 37 Lawson Montgomery '18
Mihir Damle '19
Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 2 6 4 OCS 5 1 40 Zoe Harding '18 [1-2]
Marianna Guzman '19 [3-5]
Sierra Lanier '18 [1-2]
Avery Davis '19 [3-5]
York High School York High School Varsity 7 15 8 7 8 45 Daniel Hodges '18
Charlie Gibson '20
Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 3 11 14 7 4 9 45 John Vail '20 [1-5]
Anna Flynn '20 [1-4]
Samuel Christie '17 [5]
Hampton Roads Academy Hampton Roads Academy Navigators 2 8 7 10 11 12 48 Alex Kitay '19
Connor Duggan '19
Hampton Roads Academy Hampton Roads Academy Navigators 1 10 OCS 9 10 10 63 Henry Waddill '18
Brandon Kim '19
Nansemond-Suffolk Academy Nansemond-Suffolk Academy Saints 14 6 15 13 15 63 Hailey Gilman '17 [1-2]
Bobby Levin '18 [3-5]
Emily Argust '20 [1-2]
Hunter Sznoluch '19 [3-5]
Phoebus High School Phoebus High School Phantoms 9 12 17 12 14 64 Gavin Smith '21 [1-5]
William Thornton '17 [1-2]
Morgan Handly '21 [3-5]
Norfolk Academy Norfolk Academy Bulldogs 3 15 13 11 18 11 68 Cameron Lloyd '19
Ali Zaidi '20
Norfolk Academy Norfolk Academy Bulldogs 2 16 8 14 15 18 71 Jack Kilduff '18 [1-5]
Gabby Foley '19 [1-2]
Carter Furr '17 [3-5]
Maury High School Maury High School Commodores 5 11 21 20 19 76 Byron Armstrong '18 [1-2]
Caleb Mccrillis '21 [3-5]
Kayla Washington '17 [1-2]
Jalen Rogers '19 [3-5]
Walsingham Academy Walsingham Academy Trojans 19 17 13 17 13 79 Carson Cooper '18 [1-5]
Till Seidenfue '18 [1-2]
David Pellei '18 [3-5]
Norfolk Academy Norfolk Academy Bulldogs 4 18 16 16 14 20 84 Henry Campbell '21
Claire Cunningham '18
Grafton High School Grafton High School Varsity 17 19 12 21 16 85 Haydon Gould '19
Jacqueline Lankford '18
Hampton High School Hampton High School Crabbers 21 18 20 16 17 92 Bryce Hoen '18 [1-2]
Avery Mcnight '20 [3-5]
Avery Mcnight '20 [1-2]
Mallory Soter '20 [3-5]
St. Christopher's School St. Christopher's School Saints 20 20 18 22 23 103 Audrey Ladd '19
Emmy Jankowski '19
Catholic High School Catholic High School Crusaders 1 22 21 19 23 21 106 Ignatius Liberto '17 [1-5]
Gustavo Morales '20 [1-2, 5]
Nathan Houser '17 [3-4]
Catholic High School Catholic High School Crusaders 2 23 22 22 19 22 108 Erynn Sorensen '17
Matt Lassalle '18
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.090+0.09
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2014 (13 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A
Catholic High SchoolCatholic High School Crusaders 111335
Catholic High SchoolCatholic High School Crusaders 216161818115
Christchurch SchoolChristchurch School Seahorses 122446
Christchurch SchoolChristchurch School Seahorses 21717114114116
Christchurch SchoolChristchurch School Seahorses 31161161181182
Grafton High SchoolGrafton High School Varsity33557
Hampton High SchoolHampton High School Crabbers44668
Hampton Roads AcademyHampton Roads Academy Navigators 155779
Hampton Roads AcademyHampton Roads Academy Navigators 21818115115117
Kecoughtan High SchoolKecoughtan High School Warriors668810
Maury High SchoolMaury High School Commodores779911
Nansemond-Suffolk AcademyNansemond-Suffolk Academy Saints88101012
Norfolk AcademyNorfolk Academy Bulldogs 199111113
Norfolk AcademyNorfolk Academy Bulldogs 2114114116116118
Norfolk AcademyNorfolk Academy Bulldogs 3117117113
Norfolk AcademyNorfolk Academy Bulldogs 4118118224
Norfolk Collegiate SchoolNorfolk Collegiate School Oaks 11010121214
Norfolk Collegiate SchoolNorfolk Collegiate School Oaks 21151151171171
Phoebus High SchoolPhoebus High School Phantoms1111131315
Poquoson High SchoolPoquoson High School Islanders1212141416
St. Christopher's SchoolSt. Christopher's School Saints1313151517
Walsingham AcademyWalsingham Academy Trojans1414161618
York High SchoolYork High School Varsity15151717114

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B
Catholic High SchoolCatholic High School Crusaders 122446
Catholic High SchoolCatholic High School Crusaders 21717114114116
Christchurch SchoolChristchurch School Seahorses 133557
Christchurch SchoolChristchurch School Seahorses 21818115115117
Christchurch SchoolChristchurch School Seahorses 3117117113
Grafton High SchoolGrafton High School Varsity44668
Hampton High SchoolHampton High School Crabbers55779
Hampton Roads AcademyHampton Roads Academy Navigators 1668810
Hampton Roads AcademyHampton Roads Academy Navigators 2114114116116118
Kecoughtan High SchoolKecoughtan High School Warriors779911
Maury High SchoolMaury High School Commodores88101012
Nansemond-Suffolk AcademyNansemond-Suffolk Academy Saints99111113
Norfolk AcademyNorfolk Academy Bulldogs 11010121214
Norfolk AcademyNorfolk Academy Bulldogs 21151151171171
Norfolk AcademyNorfolk Academy Bulldogs 3118118224
Norfolk AcademyNorfolk Academy Bulldogs 411335
Norfolk Collegiate SchoolNorfolk Collegiate School Oaks 11111131315
Norfolk Collegiate SchoolNorfolk Collegiate School Oaks 21161161181182
Phoebus High SchoolPhoebus High School Phantoms1212141416
Poquoson High SchoolPoquoson High School Islanders1313151517
St. Christopher's SchoolSt. Christopher's School Saints1414161618
Walsingham AcademyWalsingham Academy Trojans15151717114
York High SchoolYork High School Varsity16161818115
School / Team SkipperCrew
Catholic High School Catholic High School Jake Kiggans '19 [1-5] Charles Schoening '19 [1-2, 5]
Maggie Mcdonald '19 [3-4]
Crusaders 1 Ignatius Liberto '17 [1-5] Gustavo Morales '20 [1-2, 5]
Nathan Houser '17 [3-4]
Catholic High School Catholic High School Nick Segerblom '17 Matt Beauchamp '17
Crusaders 2 Erynn Sorensen '17 Matt Lassalle '18
Christchurch School Christchurch School Boyd Bragg '19 Thomas Walker '17
Seahorses 1 Benton Amthor '19 Eric Demaro '18
Christchurch School Christchurch School Brendan Little '18 Carson Rozell '19
Seahorses 2 Zoe Harding '18 [1-2]
Marianna Guzman '19 [3-5]		 Sierra Lanier '18 [1-2]
Avery Davis '19 [3-5]
Christchurch School Christchurch School Nathan Smith '20 Sally Johnson '18
Seahorses 3 John Vail '20 [1-5] Anna Flynn '20 [1-4]
Samuel Christie '17 [5]
Grafton High School Grafton High School Haydon Gould '19 Madeleine Etheridge '19
Varsity Haydon Gould '19 Jacqueline Lankford '18
Hampton High School Hampton High School Tyler Bevington '19 [1-5] Ricky Cordner '19 [1-2, 5]
Anna Patterson '16 [3-4]
Crabbers Bryce Hoen '18 [1-2]
Avery Mcnight '20 [3-5]		 Avery Mcnight '20 [1-2]
Mallory Soter '20 [3-5]
Hampton Roads Academy Hampton Roads Academy Henry Eley '18 [1-5] Larry Rogers '19 [1-4]
Connor Duggan '19 [5]
Navigators 1 Henry Waddill '18 Brandon Kim '19
Hampton Roads Academy Hampton Roads Academy Jared Cronin '17 [1-5] Kyrsta Rutherford '19 [1-4]
Olivia Basco '19 [5]
Navigators 2 Alex Kitay '19 Connor Duggan '19
Kecoughtan High School Kecoughtan High School Sam Brady '19 Ryan Nguyen '20
Warriors Cole Handly '19 [1-5] Grace Joyner '19 [1-2]
Emily Butler '19 [3-5]
Maury High School Maury High School Tyler Cason '18 [1-2, 5]
Connor Mccrillis '20 [3-4]		 Kate Weaver '18 [1-2]
Clare Ruedisueli '17 [3-4]
Kayla Washington '17 [5]
Commodores Byron Armstrong '18 [1-2]
Caleb Mccrillis '21 [3-5]		 Kayla Washington '17 [1-2]
Jalen Rogers '19 [3-5]
Nansemond-Suffolk Academy Nansemond-Suffolk Academy Harrison Parker '18 T. J. Argust '18
Saints Hailey Gilman '17 [1-2]
Bobby Levin '18 [3-5]		 Emily Argust '20 [1-2]
Hunter Sznoluch '19 [3-5]
Norfolk Academy Norfolk Academy Jack Whitmore '19 Anna Heaton '18
Bulldogs 1 Lawson Montgomery '18 Mihir Damle '19
Norfolk Academy Norfolk Academy Michael Hostutler '20 Hans Christoffersen '18
Bulldogs 2 Jack Kilduff '18 [1-5] Gabby Foley '19 [1-2]
Carter Furr '17 [3-5]
Norfolk Academy Norfolk Academy Ellie Whitmore '17 Gordon Kitchener '17
Bulldogs 3 Cameron Lloyd '19 Ali Zaidi '20
Norfolk Academy Norfolk Academy Jennifer Permenter '21 Graham Barbour '17
Bulldogs 4 Henry Campbell '21 Claire Cunningham '18
Norfolk Collegiate School Norfolk Collegiate School Daniel Vail '17 Chris Robertson '19
Oaks 1 Ellie Maus '18 Matt Wright '19
Norfolk Collegiate School Norfolk Collegiate School Parker Purrington '19 Ray Domena '19
Oaks 2 Hunter Kahler '17 Chapman Holt '20
Phoebus High School Phoebus High School Blake Harrington '18 Hunter Lawrence '17
Phantoms Gavin Smith '21 [1-5] William Thornton '17 [1-2]
Morgan Handly '21 [3-5]
Poquoson High School Poquoson High School Wilson Hatchett '17 Jordan Hillis '17
Islanders Jack Mckenna '20 Devon Bailey '18
St. Christopher's School St. Christopher's School Harrison Clary '18 Kaavya Shetty '18
Saints Audrey Ladd '19 Emmy Jankowski '19
Walsingham Academy Walsingham Academy Morgan Kelly '17 Colin Wilson '18
Trojans Carson Cooper '18 [1-5] Till Seidenfue '18 [1-2]
David Pellei '18 [3-5]
York High School York High School Zane Morris '18 Kylee Hockaday '17
Varsity Daniel Hodges '18 Charlie Gibson '20

Conditions — 09/10/2016 (8am–6pm)

🌤️Partly cloudy
Humidity 75%  ·  Pressure 1017.2 hPa

Temperature

82°F
↑ 87°F   ↓ 75°F
Feels like 87°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
8.2 kn
avg  ·  max 9.0 kn
Gusts to 17.9 kn
From SSW (201°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover76% Sunshine8.8 hrs Humidity75% Pressure1017.2 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: S 9 kn (scorer’s report)
In this breeze at Hampton: a favourites’ day (+0.03)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment +0.05 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.07
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.08 ± 0.09)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.03 means a rating gap counts about 2% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Hampton by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (26 labelled days at Hampton).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →