Nansemond-Suffolk Academy '18
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.48 (fleet 2.39) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.01 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 39–13 (75%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2018 | 1 | 13–1 | — |
| Fall 2017 | 1 | 0–7 | — |
| Spring 2017 | 1 | 8–0 | — |
| Fall 2015 | 1 | 8–0 | — |
| Spring 2015 | 1 | 10–5 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 4 graded regattas (37 matches) the record is 29–8 against 23.9 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+5.1). 3 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 1 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 16 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018-05-12 | VISA 2v2 Team Race Regatta | skipper | 1.57 | 4.47 | 13–1 | 9.0 | +2.90 | 5.3 | 1% |
| 2017-10-14 | VISA Team Race Championship | skipper | 1.68 | -1.32 | 0–7 | 2.6 | ≤−3.00 | 4.7 | >99% |
| 2017-04-22 | VISA HRA 2v2 Team Race Regatta | skipper | 1.56 | 4.56 | 8–0 | 6.0 | ≥+3.00 | 3.0 | 10% |
| 2015-10-24 | VISA NCS 2x2 Team Race Champions | skipper | 1.11 | 4.12 | 8–0 | 6.2 | ≥+3.00 | 2.9 | 10% |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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