VISA Team Race Championship

HostNorfolk Yacht and Country Club
Date10/14/2017
TypeLeague Championship
BoatCFJ
ScoringTeam

#	School	Team	Rec.
1	Christchurch School	Seahorses 1	15–1
2	Norfolk Collegiate School	Oaks 1	11–5
3	Norfolk Academy	Bulldogs 1	8–8
4	York High School	Varsity	5–11
5	Christchurch School	Seahorses 2	7–0
6	Norfolk Academy	Bulldogs 2	6–1
7	Kecoughtan High School	Warriors	3–4
8	Maury High School	Commodores	2–5
9	Hampton Roads Academy	Navigators	2–5
10	Nansemond-Suffolk Academy	Saints	0–7
11	Phoebus High School	Phantoms	5–2
12	Norfolk Collegiate School	Oaks 2	4–3
13	Walsingham Academy	Trojans	2–5
14	Hampton High School	Crabbers	2–5
15	Grafton High School	Varsity	2–5
16	Catholic High School	Crusaders	0–7

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 3,840 team race matches sailed before 2017-10-14, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 37 of 46 matches (80%) with a log-loss of 0.423 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. Orderliness −0.14 ± 0.34: a typical event, more orderly than 31% of high school team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

Place	School	Pred.	Strength	Boats (skipper / crew, boat value)	Pred. win %	Record	vs forecast
1	Christchurch School Seahorses 1	1	7.32 school −0.21	Mariana Guzman Casas / Zoe Harding Nathan Smith / Reese Bragg 2.68 Brendan Little / Galt Oliver 2.42	88%	15–1 (94%)	+0.9
2	Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks 1	2	6.23 school +0.12	Parker Purrington / Ray Domena 1.93 10–5 Chris Robertson / Sam Beck 9–5 Ellie Maus / Matt Wright 2.66 7–4 Sarah Smith / Jenks Britt 1.76 7–1	75%	11–5 (69%)	−1.1
3	Norfolk Academy Bulldogs 1	5	3.88 school −0.12	Lawson Montgomery / Mihir Damle 1.39 Michael Hostutler / Alek Sas 1.45 Jack Kilduff / Cameron Lloyd 1.08	37%	8–8 (50%)	+2.1
4	York High School Varsity	7	3.41 school −0.18	Zane Morris / Ethan White 1.35 Daniel Hodges / Charlie Gibson 1.24 Brian Fox / Kai Vylet 0.83	31%	5–11 (31%)	+0.0
7	Kecoughtan High School Warriors	6	2.74 school −0.25	Sam Brady / Laura Rhodes 1.21 Cole Handly / Grace Joyner 1.46 Tyler Bevington / Ryan Nguyen	34%	3–4 (43%)	+0.6
8	Maury High School Commodores	8	1.52 school −0.14	Paul Trudell / Emily Palmer Jalen Rogers / Will Moore 2–3 Robert Chase / Jackson Walsh 0.61 2–3 Tyler Cason / Will Moore 0.41 0–2 Robert Chase / Kate Weaver 0.75 0–2	16%	2–5 (29%)	+0.9
9	Hampton Roads Academy Navigators	3	3.04 school −0.13	Henry Eley / Scott Spencer 1.57 Henry Waddill / Larry Rogers Alex Kitay / Olivia Basco 0.75	40%	2–5 (29%)	−0.8
10	Nansemond-Suffolk Academy Saints	4	2.87 school +0.17	Harrison Parker / Maddy Reynolds 1.68 Kyle Pfrang / T. J. Argust 1.50 Carter Lydon / Hunter Sznoluch	37%	0–7 (0%)	−2.6

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

Place	School	Strength	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
3	Norfolk Academy Bulldogs 1	3.88	4.98	8–8	5.9	+1.10	1.3	15%
8	Maury High School Commodores	1.52	2.54	2–5	1.2	+1.02	0.5	33%
1	Christchurch School Seahorses 1	7.32	8.34	15–1	14.1	+1.02	0.5	40%
7	Kecoughtan High School Warriors	2.74	3.40	3–4	2.4	+0.66	0.2	44%
4	York High School Varsity	3.41	3.41	5–11	5.0	−0.00	0.0	62%
2	Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks 1	6.23	5.61	11–5	12.0	−0.62	0.4	87%
9	Hampton Roads Academy Navigators	3.04	2.21	2–5	2.8	−0.83	0.4	88%
10	Nansemond-Suffolk Academy Saints	2.87	-0.13	0–7	2.6	≤−3.00	4.7	>99%

By skipper

Skipper	School	Value	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
Jalen Rogers	Maury High School	0.14	2.41	2–3	0.7	+2.28	1.8	13%
Lawson Montgomery	Norfolk Academy	1.39	2.49	8–8	5.9	+1.10	1.3	15%
Jack Kilduff	Norfolk Academy	1.08	2.18	8–8	5.9	+1.10	1.3	15%
Mariana Guzman Casas	Christchurch School	2.13	3.14	15–1	14.1	+1.02	0.5	40%
Sam Brady	Kecoughtan High School	1.21	1.87	3–4	2.4	+0.66	0.2	44%
Cole Handly	Kecoughtan High School	1.46	2.12	3–4	2.4	+0.66	0.2	44%
Zane Morris	York High School	1.35	1.35	5–11	5.0	−0.00	0.0	62%
Alex Kitay	Hampton Roads Academy	0.75	-0.08	2–5	2.8	−0.83	0.4	88%
Harrison Parker	Nansemond-Suffolk Academy	1.68	-1.32	0–7	2.6	≤−3.00	4.7	>99%
Carter Lydon	Nansemond-Suffolk Academy	-0.70	-3.70	0–7	2.6	≤−3.00	4.7	>99%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd	#	Winner	Loser	P(winner)
	1	Norfolk Academy Bulldogs 1	Maury High School Commodores	84%
	2	Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks 1	Kecoughtan High School Warriors	95%
	3	Hampton Roads Academy Navigators	Nansemond-Suffolk Academy Saints	55%
	4	Christchurch School Seahorses 1	York High School Varsity	95%
	5	Kecoughtan High School Warriors	Maury High School Commodores	68%
	6	Norfolk Academy Bulldogs 1	Hampton Roads Academy Navigators	66%
	7	Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks 1	York High School Varsity	85%
	8	Christchurch School Seahorses 1	Nansemond-Suffolk Academy Saints	97%
	9	Kecoughtan High School Warriors	Hampton Roads Academy Navigators	44%	upset
	10	York High School Varsity	Maury High School Commodores	83%
	11	Norfolk Academy Bulldogs 1	Nansemond-Suffolk Academy Saints	68%
	12	Christchurch School Seahorses 1	Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks 1	65%
	13	Hampton Roads Academy Navigators	York High School Varsity	44%	upset
	14	Kecoughtan High School Warriors	Nansemond-Suffolk Academy Saints	47%	upset
	15	Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks 1	Maury High School Commodores	98%
	16	Christchurch School Seahorses 1	Norfolk Academy Bulldogs 1	93%
	17	York High School Varsity	Nansemond-Suffolk Academy Saints	58%
	18	Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks 1	Hampton Roads Academy Navigators	94%
	19	Norfolk Academy Bulldogs 1	Kecoughtan High School Warriors	70%
	20	Christchurch School Seahorses 1	Maury High School Commodores	99%
	21	Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks 1	Nansemond-Suffolk Academy Saints	89%
	22	York High School Varsity	Norfolk Academy Bulldogs 1	41%	upset
	23	Maury High School Commodores	Hampton Roads Academy Navigators	22%	upset
	24	Christchurch School Seahorses 1	Kecoughtan High School Warriors	97%
	25	Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks 1	Norfolk Academy Bulldogs 1	88%
	26	Maury High School Commodores	Nansemond-Suffolk Academy Saints	24%	upset
	27	York High School Varsity	Kecoughtan High School Warriors	62%
	28	Christchurch School Seahorses 1	Hampton Roads Academy Navigators	96%
4	57	Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks 1	Norfolk Academy Bulldogs 1	88%
4	58	Christchurch School Seahorses 1	York High School Varsity	96%
4	59	Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks 1	York High School Varsity	85%
4	60	Christchurch School Seahorses 1	Norfolk Academy Bulldogs 1	94%
4	61	Norfolk Academy Bulldogs 1	York High School Varsity	59%
4	62	Christchurch School Seahorses 1	Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks 1	66%
4	63	Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks 1	Norfolk Academy Bulldogs 1	88%
4	64	Christchurch School Seahorses 1	York High School Varsity	96%
4	65	York High School Varsity	Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks 1	15%	upset
4	66	Christchurch School Seahorses 1	Norfolk Academy Bulldogs 1	94%
4	67	Norfolk Academy Bulldogs 1	York High School Varsity	59%
4	68	Christchurch School Seahorses 1	Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks 1	67%
4	69	Norfolk Academy Bulldogs 1	Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks 1	12%	upset
4	70	Christchurch School Seahorses 1	York High School Varsity	96%
4	71	Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks 1	York High School Varsity	85%
4	72	Christchurch School Seahorses 1	Norfolk Academy Bulldogs 1	94%
4	73	Norfolk Academy Bulldogs 1	York High School Varsity	59%
4	74	Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks 1	Christchurch School Seahorses 1	33%	upset

Filter by team:

#					Pos.
1	Bulldogs 1	1-2-4	def.	Commodores	3-5-6
2	Oaks 1	1-2-4	def.	Warriors	3-5-6
3	Navigators	1-2-5	def.	Saints	3-4-6
4	Seahorses 1	1-2-6	def.	Varsity	3-4-5
5	Warriors	1-2-3	def.	Commodores	4-5-6
6	Bulldogs 1	1-2-3	def.	Navigators	4-5-6
7	Oaks 1	1-2-5	def.	Varsity	3-4-6
8	Seahorses 1	1-2-3	def.	Saints	4-5-6
9	Warriors	1-2-6	def.	Navigators	3-4-5
10	Varsity	1-2-5	def.	Commodores	3-4-6
11	Bulldogs 1	1-3-4	def.	Saints	2-5-6
12	Seahorses 1	1-2-6	def.	Oaks 1	3-4-5
13	Navigators	1-3-4	def.	Varsity	2-5-6
14	Warriors	1-2-5	def.	Saints	3-4-6
15	Oaks 1	1-2-5	def.	Commodores	3-4-6
16	Seahorses 1	1-2-3	def.	Bulldogs 1	4-5-6
17	Varsity	1-2-5	def.	Saints	3-4-6
18	Oaks 1	1-2-4	def.	Navigators	3-5-6
19	Bulldogs 1	1-2-4	def.	Warriors	3-5-6
20	Seahorses 1	1-2-4	def.	Commodores	3-5-6
21	Oaks 1	1-2-5	def.	Saints	3-4-6
22	Varsity	1-2-4	def.	Bulldogs 1	3-5-6
23	Commodores	1-4-5	def.	Navigators	2-3-6
24	Seahorses 1	1-2-3	def.	Warriors	4-5-6
25	Oaks 1	1-2-3	def.	Bulldogs 1	4-5-6
26	Commodores	2-3-5	def.	Saints	1-4-6
27	Varsity	1-2-6	def.	Warriors	3-4-5
28	Seahorses 1	1-2-3	def.	Navigators	4-5-6
29	Phantoms	1-2-3	def.	Crabbers	4-5-6
30	Bulldogs 2	1-2-3	def.	Varsity	4-5-6
31	Seahorses 2	1-3-5	def.	Oaks 2	2-4-6
32	Trojans	2-3-5	def.	Crusaders	1-4-6
33	Varsity	1-2-6	def.	Crabbers	3-4-5
34	Seahorses 2	1-2-5	def.	Phantoms	3-4-6
35	Bulldogs 2	1-2-3	def.	Trojans	4-5-6
36	Oaks 2	1-2-3	def.	Crusaders	4-5-6
37	Seahorses 2	1-2-3	def.	Varsity	4-5-6
38	Crabbers	1-3-5	def.	Trojans	2-4-6
39	Phantoms	1-3-4	def.	Oaks 2	2-5-6
40	Bulldogs 2	1-2-3	def.	Crusaders	4-5-6
41	Seahorses 2	1-2-3	def.	Trojans	4-5-6
42	Oaks 2	1-2-6	def.	Varsity	3-4-5
43	Bulldogs 2	1-2-3	def.	Crabbers	4-5-6
44	Phantoms	1-2-4	def.	Crusaders	3-5-6
45	Oaks 2	1-2-4	def.	Trojans	3-5-6
46	Seahorses 2	1-2-4	def.	Bulldogs 2	3-5-6
47	Phantoms	1-3-4	def.	Varsity	2-5-6
48	Crabbers	1-2-3	def.	Crusaders	4-5-6
49	Bulldogs 2	1-2-6	def.	Oaks 2	3-4-5
50	Phantoms	1-2-4	def.	Trojans	3-5-6
51	Seahorses 2	1-2-3	def.	Crabbers	4-5-6
52	Varsity	1-3-4	def.	Crusaders	2-5-6
53	Bulldogs 2	1-3-6	def.	Phantoms	2-4-5
54	Oaks 2	1-4-5	def.	Crabbers	2-3-6
55	Trojans	1-3-4	def.	Varsity	2-5-6
56	Seahorses 2	1-2-3	def.	Crusaders	4-5-6
57	Oaks 1	1-3-5	def.	Bulldogs 1	2-4-6
58	Seahorses 1	1-2-4	def.	Varsity	3-5-6
59	Oaks 1	1-2-4	def.	Varsity	3-5-6
60	Seahorses 1	1-2-4	def.	Bulldogs 1	3-5-6
61	Bulldogs 1	1-3-5	def.	Varsity	2-4-6
62	Seahorses 1	1-2-3	def.	Oaks 1	4-5-6
63	Oaks 1	1-2-4	def.	Bulldogs 1	3-5-6
64	Seahorses 1	1-2-5	def.	Varsity	3-4-6
65	Varsity	1-3-4	def.	Oaks 1	2-5-6
66	Seahorses 1	1-2-3	def.	Bulldogs 1	4-5-6
67	Bulldogs 1	1-2-6	def.	Varsity	3-4-5
68	Seahorses 1	2-3-4	def.	Oaks 1	1-5-6
69	Bulldogs 1	1-2-5	def.	Oaks 1	3-4-6
70	Seahorses 1	1-2-3	def.	Varsity	4-5-6
71	Oaks 1	1-2-3	def.	Varsity	4-5-6
72	Seahorses 1	1-2-4	def.	Bulldogs 1	3-5-6
73	Bulldogs 1	1-2-5	def.	Varsity	3-4-6
74	Oaks 1	2-3-5	def.	Seahorses 1	1-4-6

School	Team	Skippers	Crew
Christchurch School	Seahorses 1	Brendan Little '18 Mariana Guzman Casas '19 Nathan Smith '20	Galt Oliver '18 Zoe Harding '18 Reese Bragg '21
Norfolk Collegiate School	Oaks 1	Chris Robertson '19 Ellie Maus '18 Parker Purrington '19 Sarah Smith '18	Sam Beck '21 Matt Wright '19 Ray Domena '19 Jenks Britt '20
Norfolk Academy	Bulldogs 1	Jack Kilduff '18 Lawson Montgomery '18 Michael Hostutler '20	Cameron Lloyd '19 Mihir Damle '19 Alek Sas '18
York High School	Varsity	Brian Fox '19 Daniel Hodges '18 Zane Morris '18	Kai Vylet '19 Charlie Gibson '20 Ethan White '21
Kecoughtan High School	Warriors	Cole Handly '19 Sam Brady '19 Tyler Bevington '19	Grace Joyner '19 Laura Rhodes '20 Ryan Nguyen '20
Maury High School	Commodores	Jalen Rogers '19 Paul Trudell '22 Robert Chase '22 Tyler Cason '18	Will Moore '20 Emily Palmer '18 Kate Weaver '18 Jackson Walsh '20
Hampton Roads Academy	Navigators	Alex Kitay '19 Henry Eley '18 Henry Waddill '18	Olivia Basco '19 Scott Spencer '19 Larry Rogers '19
Nansemond-Suffolk Academy	Saints	Carter Lydon '21 Harrison Parker '18 Kyle Pfrang '22	Hunter Sznoluch '19 Maddy Reynolds '21 T. J. Argust '18

Conditions — 10/14/2017 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast

Humidity 86% · Pressure 1022.6 hPa

Temperature

71°F

↑ 72°F ↓ 69°F

Feels like 72°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

9.3 kn

avg · max 11.4 kn

Gusts to 20.4 kn

From NNE (14°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover100% Sunshine0.2 hrs Humidity86% Pressure1022.6 hPa

What this breeze does at Norfolk Yacht and Country Club — from fleet racing

Breeze: N about 11 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In fleet races at Norfolk Yacht and Country Club in this breeze: an underdogs’ day (−0.03)

Underdogs’ conditions: in fleet racing here the fleet bunches up and lower-rated boats beat the seeds more often than usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.03 means a rating gap counts about 2% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Norfolk Yacht and Country Club by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (32 labelled fleet-race days at Norfolk Yacht and Country Club).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

How team race forecasts workThree boats’ ratings, a school term and a home edge; 78.8% of held-out matches called.
Play 1, Play 2, Play 4: how team races are wonHow often each play happens, how that shifts with breeze and level, and whether a star wins differently.
Which team races go to form?Orderliness is a real property of a team race regatta and nothing known in advance predicts it.

All notes →

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