York High School '18
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.04 (fleet 1.69) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.01 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 28–44 (39%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2018 | 1 | 6–8 | — |
| Fall 2017 | 1 | 5–11 | — |
| Spring 2017 | 2 | 8–8 | — |
| Spring 2016 | 1 | 2–6 | — |
| Fall 2015 | 1 | 5–3 | — |
| Spring 2015 | 1 | 2–8 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 6 graded regattas (62 matches) the record is 26–36 against 31.1 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−5.1). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 5 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 3 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018-05-12 | VISA 2v2 Team Race Regatta | skipper | 1.27 | -0.01 | 6–8 | 8.7 | −1.28 | 2.0 | 98% |
| 2017-10-14 | VISA Team Race Championship | skipper | 1.35 | 1.35 | 5–11 | 5.0 | −0.00 | 0.0 | 62% |
| 2017-04-22 | VISA HRA 2v2 Team Race Regatta | skipper | 1.30 | 0.73 | 5–3 | 5.7 | −0.57 | 0.2 | 84% |
| 2017-04-01 | VISA NCS Team Race Regatta | skipper | 1.53 | 0.70 | 3–5 | 3.6 | −0.83 | 0.3 | 89% |
| 2016-04-23 | VISA Maury 3v3 Team Race Regatta | skipper | 1.25 | 0.77 | 2–6 | 2.4 | −0.48 | 0.1 | 81% |
| 2015-10-24 | VISA NCS 2x2 Team Race Champions | skipper | 1.08 | 0.39 | 5–3 | 5.7 | −0.68 | 0.3 | 86% |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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