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VISA Fall Championship Regatta

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 1 7 14 21
2 Norfolk Collegiate School Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks 1 16 10 26
3 Norfolk Academy Norfolk Academy Bulldogs 1 21 16 37
4 Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 2 56 42 98
5 York High School York High School Varsity 38 60 98
6 Nansemond-Suffolk Academy Nansemond-Suffolk Academy Varsity 61 88 149
7 Norfolk Academy Norfolk Academy Bulldogs 2 56 94 150
8 Hampton Roads Academy Hampton Roads Academy Varsity 87 65 152
9 Phoebus High School Phoebus High School Varsity 85 68 153
10 Walsingham Academy Walsingham Academy Varsity 74 101 175
11 Maury High School Maury High School Varsity 88 95 183
12 St. Christopher's School St. Christopher's School Varsity 1 76 108 184
13 Norfolk Collegiate School Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks 2 90 100 190
14 Norfolk Collegiate School Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks 3 104 96 200
15 Kecoughtan High School Kecoughtan High School Varsity 90 114 204
16 St. Catherine's School St. Catherine's School Varsity 97 109 206
17 Smithfield High School Smithfield High School Smithfield 105 106 211
18 St. Christopher's School St. Christopher's School Varsity 2 113 114 227
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 TOT Sailors
Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 1 1 1 1 2 1 1 7 Andy Burns '17
Eric Demario '18
Norfolk Collegiate School Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks 1 2 2 7 1 2 2 16 Dreugh Phillips '16
Mike Klink '15
Norfolk Academy Norfolk Academy Bulldogs 1 6 3 2 3 3 4 21 Jessica Williams '16
Elise Turrietta '16
York High School York High School Varsity 8 8 8 7 4 3 38 Daniel Hodges '18
Lucas Grigorian '17
Norfolk Academy Norfolk Academy Bulldogs 2 3 6 4 5 DNS DNS 56 Jon Pavilack '16
Rossi Mccall '15
Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 2 7 4 3 4 DNF DSQ 56 Austen Freda '17
Alara Sahin '18
Nansemond-Suffolk Academy Nansemond-Suffolk Academy Varsity 4 7 6 6 DNS DNS 61 Kaila Pfrang '17 [1-6]
Eason Barclay '15 [1-2]
Mitchell Hynes '18 [3-6]
Walsingham Academy Walsingham Academy Varsity 5 13 10 8 DNS DNS 74 Richard Gunn '15
Sidney Woloszynowski '20
St. Christopher's School St. Christopher's School Varsity 1 9 5 5 DNF DNS DNS 76 Nathaniel Llewellyn '15
Swayne Martin '15
Phoebus High School Phoebus High School Varsity 16 BKD 9 10 DNS DNS 85 Neilson Woodfield '16 [1-2]
Blake Harrington '18 [3-6]
Sam Brady '19 [1-2]
Hampton Roads Academy Hampton Roads Academy Varsity 15 14 11 9 DNS DNS 87 Miles Campbell '16
Harry Ross '17
Maury High School Maury High School Varsity BKD 10 13 12 DNS DNS 88 Will Ellson '15
Charlotte Hennessy '15
Kecoughtan High School Kecoughtan High School Varsity 11 16 14 11 DNS DNS 90 Anna Patterson '16
Cole Handly '19
Norfolk Collegiate School Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks 2 12 9 12 DNF DNS DNS 90 Ellie Maus '18
Ashley Obermeyer '18
St. Catherine's School St. Catherine's School Varsity 14 11 15 DNF DNS DNS 97 Lilli Cooper '17
Elizabeth Magee '17
Norfolk Collegiate School Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks 3 13 15 DNF DNS DNS DNS 104 Joe Morrison '16 [1-6]
Sarah Smith '18 [1-2]
Nathan Stell '17 [3-6]
Smithfield High School Smithfield High School Smithfield 10 DNF DNS DNS DNS DNS 105 Alex Shinn '15
Ramani Perera '15
St. Christopher's School St. Christopher's School Varsity 2 18 DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS 113 Judson Innes '18
Colin Smith '16
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 TOT Sailors
Norfolk Collegiate School Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks 1 1 4 1 1 2 1 10 Victor Layne '16 [1-2, 5-6]
Darden Purrington '16 [3-4]
Nick Baker '16 [1-2, 5-6]
Daniel Vail '17 [3-4]
Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 1 2 1 2 3 3 3 14 Sally Johnson '18
Zoe Harding '18
Norfolk Academy Norfolk Academy Bulldogs 1 3 2 6 2 1 2 16 Marshall Mccraw '16
Alexander Singh '15
Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 2 7 3 5 4 DNF 4 42 Brendan Little '18
Bryce Norvell '15
York High School York High School Varsity 4 8 4 6 DNS DNS 60 Zane Morris '18 [1-6]
Haydon Gould '19 [1-2]
Brian Fox '19 [3-6]
Hampton Roads Academy Hampton Roads Academy Varsity 6 BKD 3 7 DNS DNS 65 Luke Fitzharris '19
Mike Keller '17
Phoebus High School Phoebus High School Varsity 12 6 7 5 DNS DNS 68 Blake Harrington '18 [1-6]
Emily Rhodes '16 [1-2]
Sam Brady '19 [3-6]
Nansemond-Suffolk Academy Nansemond-Suffolk Academy Varsity 5 7 DNS DNS DNS DNS 88 Harrison Parker '18 [1-6]
Hailey Gilman '17 [1-2]
T.J. Argust '18 [3-6]
Norfolk Academy Norfolk Academy Bulldogs 2 8 10 DNS DNS DNS DNS 94 Jack Whitmore '19
Lawson Montgomery '18
Maury High School Maury High School Varsity 10 9 DNS DNS DNS DNS 95 Byron Armstrong '18 [1]
Charlie White '15 [2-4]
No Show [5-6]
Riley Golski '15 [1]
Norfolk Collegiate School Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks 3 9 11 DNS DNS DNS DNS 96 Chris Robertson '19
Hunter Kahler '17
Norfolk Collegiate School Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks 2 DNF 5 DNS DNS DNS DNS 100
Walsingham Academy Walsingham Academy Varsity 13 12 DNS DNS DNS DNS 101 David Pellei '18
Maddy O'Connell '20
Smithfield High School Smithfield High School Smithfield 11 DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS 106
St. Christopher's School St. Christopher's School Varsity 1 DNF 13 DNS DNS DNS DNS 108 Alex O'Connell '15
Ralph Levy '18
St. Catherine's School St. Catherine's School Varsity 14 DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS 109 Colin Knight '16
Mack Southworth '15
St. Christopher's School St. Christopher's School Varsity 2 DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS 114 Harrison Clary '18
Berkeley Galston '17
Kecoughtan High School Kecoughtan High School Varsity DNF DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS 114 Kasey Cordner '16
Jillian Kilgore '16
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.100+0.10
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2014 (2 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A
Christchurch SchoolChristchurch School Seahorses 1111111
Christchurch SchoolChristchurch School Seahorses 2151515151515
Hampton Roads AcademyHampton Roads Academy Varsity777777
Kecoughtan High SchoolKecoughtan High School Varsity131313131313
Maury High SchoolMaury High School Varsity101010101010
Nansemond-Suffolk AcademyNansemond-Suffolk Academy Varsity888888
Norfolk AcademyNorfolk Academy Bulldogs 1333333
Norfolk AcademyNorfolk Academy Bulldogs 2171717171717
Norfolk Collegiate SchoolNorfolk Collegiate School Oaks 1222222
Norfolk Collegiate SchoolNorfolk Collegiate School Oaks 2161616161616
Norfolk Collegiate SchoolNorfolk Collegiate School Oaks 3444444
Phoebus High SchoolPhoebus High School Varsity666666
Smithfield High SchoolSmithfield High School Smithfield999999
St. Catherine's SchoolSt. Catherine's School Varsity141414141414
St. Christopher's SchoolSt. Christopher's School Varsity 1555555
St. Christopher's SchoolSt. Christopher's School Varsity 2181818181818
Walsingham AcademyWalsingham Academy Varsity121212121212
York High SchoolYork High School Varsity111111111111

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B
Christchurch SchoolChristchurch School Seahorses 1111111
Christchurch SchoolChristchurch School Seahorses 2151515151515
Hampton Roads AcademyHampton Roads Academy Varsity777777
Kecoughtan High SchoolKecoughtan High School Varsity131313131313
Maury High SchoolMaury High School Varsity101010101010
Nansemond-Suffolk AcademyNansemond-Suffolk Academy Varsity888888
Norfolk AcademyNorfolk Academy Bulldogs 1333333
Norfolk AcademyNorfolk Academy Bulldogs 2171717171717
Norfolk Collegiate SchoolNorfolk Collegiate School Oaks 1222222
Norfolk Collegiate SchoolNorfolk Collegiate School Oaks 2161616161616
Norfolk Collegiate SchoolNorfolk Collegiate School Oaks 3444444
Phoebus High SchoolPhoebus High School Varsity666666
Smithfield High SchoolSmithfield High School Smithfield999999
St. Catherine's SchoolSt. Catherine's School Varsity141414141414
St. Christopher's SchoolSt. Christopher's School Varsity 1555555
St. Christopher's SchoolSt. Christopher's School Varsity 2181818181818
Walsingham AcademyWalsingham Academy Varsity121212121212
York High SchoolYork High School Varsity111111111111
School / Team SkipperCrew
Christchurch School Christchurch School Andy Burns '17 Eric Demario '18
Seahorses 1 Sally Johnson '18 Zoe Harding '18
Christchurch School Christchurch School Austen Freda '17 Alara Sahin '18
Seahorses 2 Brendan Little '18 Bryce Norvell '15
Hampton Roads Academy Hampton Roads Academy Miles Campbell '16 Harry Ross '17
Varsity Luke Fitzharris '19 Mike Keller '17
Kecoughtan High School Kecoughtan High School Anna Patterson '16 Cole Handly '19
Varsity Kasey Cordner '16 Jillian Kilgore '16
Maury High School Maury High School Will Ellson '15 Charlotte Hennessy '15
Varsity Byron Armstrong '18 [1]
Charlie White '15 [2-4]
No Show [5-6]		 Riley Golski '15 [1]
Nansemond-Suffolk Academy Nansemond-Suffolk Academy Kaila Pfrang '17 [1-6] Eason Barclay '15 [1-2]
Mitchell Hynes '18 [3-6]
Varsity Harrison Parker '18 [1-6] Hailey Gilman '17 [1-2]
T.J. Argust '18 [3-6]
Norfolk Academy Norfolk Academy Jessica Williams '16 Elise Turrietta '16
Bulldogs 1 Marshall Mccraw '16 Alexander Singh '15
Norfolk Academy Norfolk Academy Jon Pavilack '16 Rossi Mccall '15
Bulldogs 2 Jack Whitmore '19 Lawson Montgomery '18
Norfolk Collegiate School Norfolk Collegiate School Dreugh Phillips '16 Mike Klink '15
Oaks 1 Victor Layne '16 [1-2, 5-6]
Darden Purrington '16 [3-4]		 Nick Baker '16 [1-2, 5-6]
Daniel Vail '17 [3-4]
Norfolk Collegiate School Norfolk Collegiate School Ellie Maus '18 Ashley Obermeyer '18
Oaks 2
Norfolk Collegiate School Norfolk Collegiate School Joe Morrison '16 [1-6] Sarah Smith '18 [1-2]
Nathan Stell '17 [3-6]
Oaks 3 Chris Robertson '19 Hunter Kahler '17
Phoebus High School Phoebus High School Neilson Woodfield '16 [1-2]
Blake Harrington '18 [3-6]		 Sam Brady '19 [1-2]
Varsity Blake Harrington '18 [1-6] Emily Rhodes '16 [1-2]
Sam Brady '19 [3-6]
Smithfield High School Smithfield High School Alex Shinn '15 Ramani Perera '15
Smithfield
St. Catherine's School St. Catherine's School Lilli Cooper '17 Elizabeth Magee '17
Varsity Colin Knight '16 Mack Southworth '15
St. Christopher's School St. Christopher's School Nathaniel Llewellyn '15 Swayne Martin '15
Varsity 1 Alex O'Connell '15 Ralph Levy '18
St. Christopher's School St. Christopher's School Judson Innes '18 Colin Smith '16
Varsity 2 Harrison Clary '18 Berkeley Galston '17
Walsingham Academy Walsingham Academy Richard Gunn '15 Sidney Woloszynowski '20
Varsity David Pellei '18 Maddy O'Connell '20
York High School York High School Daniel Hodges '18 Lucas Grigorian '17
Varsity Zane Morris '18 [1-6] Haydon Gould '19 [1-2]
Brian Fox '19 [3-6]

Conditions — 11/01/2014 (8am–6pm)

🌦️Light drizzle
Humidity 84%  ·  Pressure 1006.2 hPa

Temperature

51°F
↑ 52°F   ↓ 50°F
Feels like 43°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
15.0 kn
avg  ·  max 18.1 kn
Gusts to 33.2 kn
From N (352°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover98% Sunshine1.4 hrs Humidity84% Pressure1006.2 hPa Rain0.11 in

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: N 16 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Christchurch School: a typical day (+0.02)
Nothing in the breeze favours either side; expect results to follow the ratings about as usual.
Fleet adjustment +0.05 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.07
Actual: about typical, within noise (−0.12 ± 0.15)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.02 means a rating gap counts about 2% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Christchurch School by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (25 labelled days at Christchurch School).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →