Hampton Roads Academy '16
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.73 (fleet 1.19) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 3–15 (17%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2016 | 1 | 2–6 | — |
| Spring 2015 | 1 | 1–9 | — |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 1 graded regattas (8 matches) the record is 2–6 against 3.0 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−1.0). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 1 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 1 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016-04-23 | VISA Maury 3v3 Team Race Regatta | skipper | 1.05 | -0.08 | 2–6 | 3.0 | −1.13 | 0.6 | 92% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| VISA NA Fleet Race Regatta | Skipper | A | 7 | 9.0 | -0.01 |
| Fall 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| VISA NSA York Fleet Race Regatta | Skipper | B | 4 | 8.8 | 0.87 |
| Norfolk Academy Fleet Race Regatta | Skipper | B | 5 | 9.6 | 0.77 |
| Maury Smithfield Regatta | Skipper | A | 4 | 12.5 | 0.16 |
| MASSA Fall Fleet Champs I - NYCC | Skipper | B | 9 | 15.2 | -0.86 |
| Spring 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| VISA Poquoson Scrimmage | Skipper | A | 7 | 7.9 | -3.92 |
| VISA NCS/CCS 3v3 Team Race Regatta | Skipper | TR | 10 | 10% | — |
| VISA MHS Fleet Race Regatta | Skipper | A | 4 | 13.2 | -1.28 |
| VISA CCS Fleet Race Regatta | Skipper | A | — | — | — |
| Fall 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| VISA Poquoson Fleet Race Regatta | Skipper | A | 2 | 13.5 | -1.22 |
| VISA NCS Fleet Race Regatta | Skipper | A | 5 | 11.6 | 0.60 |
| VISA Fall Championship Regatta | Skipper | A | 4 | 12.2 | -0.77 |
| VISA CCS Fleet Regatta | Skipper | A | 3 | 16.3 | -2.07 |
| HCS/HRA Fleet Race Regatta | Skipper | A | 7 | 12.7 | -0.42 |
| League | Name | School | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| ISSA | Miles Campbell |  Hampton High School |
'16 |
| ISSA | Miles Campbell |  Hampton Roads Academy |
'16 |
| ISSA | Miles Campbell |  Norfolk Academy |
'16 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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