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VISA Poquoson Scrimmage

# SchoolTeam A TOT
1 York High School York High School Varsity 2 16 16
2 Poquoson High School Poquoson High School Islanders 1 24 24
3 Kecoughtan High School Kecoughtan High School Varsity 27 27
4 Poquoson High School Poquoson High School Islanders 2 29 29
5 Phoebus High School Phoebus High School Varsity 1 40 40
6 York High School York High School Varsity 1 44 44
7 Phoebus High School Phoebus High School Varsity 2 44 44
8 Hampton Roads Academy Hampton Roads Academy Varsity 55 55
9 Maury High School Maury High School Varsity 2 61 61
10 Walsingham Academy Walsingham Academy Varsity 63 63
11 Maury High School Maury High School Varsity 1 64 64
12 Maury High School Maury High School Varsity 3 80 80
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 TOT Sailors
York High School York High School Varsity 2 1 1 6 1 1 3 3 16 Ben Clarke '16
Ben Clarke '16
Poquoson High School Poquoson High School Islanders 1 2 3 1 3 3 6 6 24
Kecoughtan High School Kecoughtan High School Varsity 3 8 2 2 8 2 2 27 Robert Peabody '14
Robert Peabody '14
Poquoson High School Poquoson High School Islanders 2 4 6 7 5 5 1 1 29 Akito Leslie '26
Michael Hedgecock '29
Phoebus High School Phoebus High School Varsity 1 6 9 3 6 6 5 5 40 David Michael Jennings '14
David Michael Jennings '14
York High School York High School Varsity 1 7 2 4 4 7 10 10 44 Ben Clarke '16
Ben Clarke '16
Phoebus High School Phoebus High School Varsity 2 10 7 5 10 4 4 4 44 David Michael Jennings '14
David Michael Jennings '14
Hampton Roads Academy Hampton Roads Academy Varsity 11 10 10 8 2 7 7 55 Miles Campbell '16
Mark Fitzharris '19
Maury High School Maury High School Varsity 2 5 4 11 12 11 9 9 61
Walsingham Academy Walsingham Academy Varsity 9 11 8 9 10 8 8 63 David Pellei '18
Maddy O'Connell '20
Maury High School Maury High School Varsity 1 8 5 9 7 DNF 11 11 64
Maury High School Maury High School Varsity 3 12 12 12 11 9 12 12 80
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.140+0.14
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2014 (5 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A
Hampton Roads AcademyHampton Roads Academy Varsity1111111
Kecoughtan High SchoolKecoughtan High School Varsity2222222
Maury High SchoolMaury High School Varsity 13333333
Maury High SchoolMaury High School Varsity 24444444
Maury High SchoolMaury High School Varsity 316161616161616
Phoebus High SchoolPhoebus High School Varsity 15555555
Phoebus High SchoolPhoebus High School Varsity 217171717171717
Poquoson High SchoolPoquoson High School Islanders 16666666
Poquoson High SchoolPoquoson High School Islanders 27777777
Walsingham AcademyWalsingham Academy Varsity8888888
York High SchoolYork High School Varsity 19999999
York High SchoolYork High School Varsity 218181818181818

Conditions — 05/09/2015 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 88%  ·  Pressure 1023.0 hPa

Temperature

70°F
↑ 72°F   ↓ 64°F
Feels like 73°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
7.5 kn
avg  ·  max 11.3 kn
Gusts to 23.3 kn
From ENE (64°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover80% Sunshine9.2 hrs Humidity88% Pressure1023.0 hPa Rain0.02 in

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: NE 10 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Hampton: a favourites’ day (+0.06)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment +0.12 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.19
Actual: about typical, within noise (−0.32 ± 0.27)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.06 means a rating gap counts about 5% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Hampton by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (26 labelled days at Hampton).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →