Kecoughtan High School '14
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.55 (fleet 0.90) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.01 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 18–27 (40%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2018 | 1 | 8–6 | — |
| Fall 2015 | 1 | 10–5 | — |
| Fall 2014 | 1 | 0–16 | — |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 2 graded regattas (29 matches) the record is 18–11 against 15.3 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+2.7). 1 regatta clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 0 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 1 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018-03-22 | VISA Peninsula Team Race Series | skipper | 0.67 | 0.91 | 8–6 | 7.4 | +0.24 | 0.1 | 47% |
| 2015-10-08 | Peninsula Team Race | skipper | 0.73 | 1.57 | 10–5 | 8.0 | +0.84 | 0.9 | 20% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| VISA Peninsula Team Race Series | Skipper | TR | 7 | 57% | — |
| Fall 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| Peninsula Team Race | Skipper | TR | 15 | 67% | — |
| Spring 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| VISA Poquoson Scrimmage | Skipper | A | 14 | 3.9 | 0.49 |
| VISA CCS Fleet Race Regatta | Skipper | A, B | — | — | — |
| Fall 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| VISA NA Silver Team Race (2v2) | Skipper | TR | 8 | 0% | — |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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