Peninsula Team Race

Pre-event forecast?

Fitted on the 1,350 team race matches sailed before 2015-10-08, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 18 of 45 matches (40%) with a log-loss of 0.912 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went poorly for the forecast. Orderliness −2.34 ± 0.38: an upset-heavy event, more orderly than 1% of high school team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

Place	School	Pred.	Strength	Boats (skipper / crew, boat value)	Pred. win %	Record	vs forecast
1	Phoebus High School Varsity	4	1.78 school +0.23	David Michael Jennings / David Michael Jennings 0.48 30–15	39%	10–5 (67%)	+4.2
2	York High School Varsity	6	1.27 school −0.25	Ben Clarke / Ben Clarke 0.46 20–10 Ben Clarke / Matt Clarke 0.52	29%	10–5 (67%)	+5.7
3	Kecoughtan High School Varsity	3	2.44 school −0.64	Samuel Templeman / Will Olson Rachel Kilgore / Will Olson Robert Peabody / Will Olson 0.73	53%	10–5 (67%)	+2.0
4	Grafton High School Varsity	2	3.37	Nikki Baldwin / Nikki Baldwin 14–16 Elizabeth Ballman / Nikki Baldwin	71%	7–8 (47%)	−3.7
5	Poquoson High School Islanders	1	3.54 school +0.16	Lost Rudder / Sky Halyard 12–33	74%	4–11 (27%)	−7.1
6	Hampton Roads Academy Varsity	5	1.51 school +0.14	Henry Eley / Henry Waddill 1.17 Alex Kitay / Phillip Whitten Andrew Frix / Connor Duggan	34%	4–11 (27%)	−1.1

Surprisal: who beat their rating?

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

Place	School	Strength	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
2	York High School	1.27	3.52	10–5	4.3	+2.25	7.2	<1%
1	Phoebus High School	1.78	3.44	10–5	5.8	+1.66	3.9	2%
3	Kecoughtan High School	2.44	3.27	10–5	8.0	+0.84	0.9	20%
6	Hampton Roads Academy	1.51	1.03	4–11	5.1	−0.48	0.3	82%
4	Grafton High School	3.37	1.91	7–8	10.6	−1.46	3.1	99%
5	Poquoson High School	3.54	0.67	4–11	11.1	−2.87	11.6	>99%

By skipper

Skipper	School	Value	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
Ben Clarke	York High School	0.46	2.71	30–15	13.0	+2.25	21.7	<1%
Samuel Templeman	Kecoughtan High School	1.18	2.02	10–5	8.0	+0.84	0.9	20%
Robert Peabody	Kecoughtan High School	0.73	1.57	10–5	8.0	+0.84	0.9	20%
Alex Kitay	Hampton Roads Academy	0.22	-0.27	4–11	5.1	−0.48	0.3	82%
Andrew Frix	Hampton Roads Academy	-0.23	-0.71	4–11	5.1	−0.48	0.3	82%
Nikki Baldwin	Grafton High School	0.90	-0.57	14–16	21.3	−1.46	6.2	>99%
Elizabeth Ballman	Grafton High School	0.90	-0.57	7–8	10.6	−1.46	3.1	99%
Lost Rudder	Poquoson High School	0.90	-1.97	12–33	33.4	−2.87	34.9	>99%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

#	Winner				Loser		Pos.
1		Varsity	1-2-4	def.		Varsity	3-5-6
2		Varsity	1-2-4	def.		Varsity	3-5-6
3		Varsity	2-3-5	def.		Islanders	1-4-6
4		Varsity	1-2-5	def.		Varsity	3-4-6
5		Varsity	2-3-4	def.		Islanders	1-5-6
6		Varsity	1-2-6	def.		Varsity	3-4-5
7		Islanders	1-2-6	def.		Varsity	3-4-5
8		Varsity	1-2-6	def.		Varsity	3-4-5
9		Varsity	1-2-5	def.		Varsity	3-4-6
10		Varsity	1-3-6	def.		Islanders	2-4-5
11		Varsity	1-2-4	def.		Varsity	3-5-6
12		Varsity	1-2-5	def.		Varsity	3-4-6
13		Varsity	2-3-5	def.		Varsity	1-4-6
14		Islanders	2-3-5	def.		Varsity	1-4-6
15		Varsity	1-3-6	def.		Varsity	2-4-5
16		Varsity	1-3-6	def.		Varsity	2-4-5
17		Varsity	1-2-5	def.		Varsity	3-4-6
18		Islanders	1-3-5	def.		Varsity	2-4-6
19		Varsity	2-3-5	def.		Varsity	1-4-6
20		Varsity	1-3-4	def.		Islanders	2-5-6
21		Varsity	2-3-4	def.		Varsity	1-5-6
22		Varsity	1-3-6	def.		Islanders	2-4-5
23		Varsity	2-3-4	def.		Varsity	1-5-6
24		Varsity	1-2-6	def.		Varsity	3-4-5
25		Varsity	1-3-5	def.		Islanders	2-4-6
26		Varsity	1-3-6	def.		Varsity	2-4-5
27		Varsity	2-3-4	def.		Varsity	1-5-6
28		Varsity	1-3-4	def.		Varsity	2-5-6
29		Varsity	1-2-4	def.		Islanders	3-5-6
30		Varsity	1-2-6	def.		Varsity	3-4-5
31		Varsity	1-2-3	def.		Varsity	4-5-6
32		Varsity	2-3-5	def.		Varsity	1-4-6
33		Islanders	1-2-5	def.		Varsity	3-4-6
34		Varsity	1-2-6	def.		Varsity	3-4-5
35		Varsity	1-2-6	def.		Islanders	3-4-5
36		Varsity	1-3-4	def.		Varsity	2-5-6 DNF
37		Varsity	1-2-3	def.		Islanders	4-5-6
38		Varsity	1-2-6	def.		Varsity	3-4-5
39		Varsity	1-3-6 DNF	def.		Varsity	2-4-5
40		Varsity	1-4-5	def.		Islanders	2-3-6
41		Varsity	1-2-3	def.		Varsity	4-5-6
42		Varsity	2-3-4	def.		Varsity	1-5-6
43		Varsity	2-3-4	def.		Varsity	1-5-6
44		Varsity	2-3-4	def.		Islanders	1-5-6
45		Varsity	2-3-5	def.		Varsity	1-4-6

	School	Team	Skippers	Crew
	Phoebus High School	Varsity	David Michael Jennings '14	David Michael Jennings '14
	York High School	Varsity	Ben Clarke '16	Ben Clarke '16 Matt Clarke '16
	Kecoughtan High School	Varsity	Rachel Kilgore '14 Robert Peabody '14 Samuel Templeman '14	Will Olson '17
	Grafton High School	Varsity	Elizabeth Ballman '15 Nikki Baldwin '14	Nikki Baldwin '14
	Poquoson High School	Islanders	Lost Rudder '16	Sky Halyard '16
	Hampton Roads Academy	Varsity	Alex Kitay '19 Andrew Frix '18 Henry Eley '18	Phillip Whitten '17 Connor Duggan '19 Henry Waddill '19