Grafton High School '15
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.12 | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 7–8 (47%) as crew 1–5 (17%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2018 | 1 | — | 1–5 |
| Fall 2015 | 1 | 7–8 | — |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 2 graded regattas (21 matches) the record is 8–13 against 14.6 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−6.6). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 2 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 8 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018-03-22 | VISA Peninsula Team Race Series | crew | 0.74 | -2.25 | 1–5 | 4.0 | −2.99 | 4.6 | >99% |
| 2015-10-08 | Peninsula Team Race | skipper | 0.90 | -0.57 | 7–8 | 10.6 | −1.46 | 3.1 | 99% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| VISA Peninsula Team Race Series | Crew | TR | 6 | 17% | — |
| Fall 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| Peninsula Team Race | Skipper | TR | 15 | 47% | — |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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