| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
York High School | Varsity | 7–0 |
| 2 |  |
Kecoughtan High School | Warriors | 4–3 |
| 3 |  |
Poquoson High School | Islanders | 1–5 |
| 3 |  |
Grafton High School | Varsity | 1–5 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 4,062 team race matches sailed before 2018-03-22, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 5 of 13 matches (38%) with a log-loss of 0.699 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went poorly for the forecast. Orderliness −0.85 ± 0.95: a typical event, more orderly than 9% of high school team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
| Place | School | Pred. | Strength | Boats (skipper / crew, boat value) | Pred. win % | Record | vs forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | York High School Varsity | 3 | 1.61 school −0.13 | Ben Clarke / Ben Clarke 0.58 21–0 | 52% | 7–0 (100%) | +3.4 |
| 2 | Kecoughtan High School Warriors | 2 | 1.65 school −0.19, home +0.17 | Robert Peabody / Samuel Templeman 0.67 8–6 Rachael Kilgore / Rachel Kilgore 0.31 | 53% | 4–3 (57%) | +0.3 |
| 3 | Poquoson High School Islanders | 4 | 0.66 | Unreported Sailor / Unreported Sailor 0.16 Greg Dolewski / Michael Hedgecock -0.33 Addy Lucas / Peyton Rollins 0.80 | 29% | 1–5 (17%) | −0.7 |
| 3 | Grafton High School Varsity | 1 | 2.18 school −0.16 | Nikki Baldwin / Nikki Baldwin 0.79 2–10 Nikki Baldwin / Elizabeth Ballman 0.74 | 66% | 1–5 (17%) | −3.0 |
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | York High School | 1.61 | 4.62 | 7–0 | 3.6 | ≥+3.00 | 5.9 | 1% |
| 2 | Kecoughtan High School | 1.65 | 1.89 | 4–3 | 3.7 | +0.24 | 0.0 | 56% |
| 3 | Poquoson High School | 0.66 | -0.27 | 1–5 | 1.7 | −0.92 | 0.4 | 87% |
| 3 | Grafton High School | 2.18 | -0.81 | 1–5 | 4.0 | −2.99 | 4.6 | >99% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Clarke | York High School | 0.58 | 3.58 | 21–0 | 10.9 | ≥+3.00 | 17.8 | <1% |
| Robert Peabody | Kecoughtan High School | 0.67 | 0.91 | 8–6 | 7.4 | +0.24 | 0.1 | 47% |
| Greg Dolewski | Poquoson High School | -0.33 | -1.25 | 1–5 | 1.7 | −0.92 | 0.4 | 87% |
| Addy Lucas | Poquoson High School | 0.80 | -0.12 | 1–5 | 1.7 | −0.92 | 0.4 | 87% |
| Nikki Baldwin | Grafton High School | 0.79 | -2.20 | 3–15 | 11.9 | −2.99 | 13.8 | >99% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| Rd | # | Winner | Loser | P(winner) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Kecoughtan High School | Poquoson High School | 68% | |
| 1 | 2 | York High School | Grafton High School | 39% | upset |
| 1 | 3 | Kecoughtan High School | Grafton High School | 40% | upset |
| 1 | 4 | York High School | Poquoson High School | 68% | |
| 1 | 5 | Grafton High School | Poquoson High School | 77% | |
| 1 | 6 | York High School | Kecoughtan High School | 49% | upset |
| 2 | 7 | York High School | Kecoughtan High School | 49% | upset |
| 3 | 8 | Kecoughtan High School | Poquoson High School | 68% | |
| 3 | 9 | York High School | Grafton High School | 39% | upset |
| 3 | 10 | Kecoughtan High School | Grafton High School | 40% | upset |
| 3 | 11 | York High School | Poquoson High School | 68% | |
| 3 | 12 | Poquoson High School | Grafton High School | 23% | upset |
| 3 | 13 | York High School | Kecoughtan High School | 49% | upset |
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Warriors | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Islanders | 2-5-6 |
| 2 | |
Varsity | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Varsity | 3-4-6 |
| 3 | |
Warriors | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Varsity | 4-5-6 |
| 4 | |
Varsity | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Islanders | 2-5-6 |
| 5 | |
Varsity | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Islanders | 2-5-6 |
| 6 | |
Varsity | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Warriors | 2-4-6 |
| 7 | |
Varsity | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Warriors | 2-5-6 |
| 8 | |
Warriors | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Islanders | 4-5-6 |
| 9 | |
Varsity | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Varsity | 2-5-6 |
| 10 | |
Warriors | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Varsity | 3-5-6 |
| 11 | |
Varsity | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Islanders | 4-5-6 |
| 12 | |
Islanders | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Varsity | 2-5-6 |
| 13 | |
Varsity | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Warriors | 2-4-6 |
| School | Team | Skippers | Crew | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
York High School | Varsity | Ben Clarke '16 | Ben Clarke '16 |
|
Kecoughtan High School | Warriors | Rachael Kilgore '14 Robert Peabody '14 |
Rachel Kilgore '14 Samuel Templeman '14 |
|
Poquoson High School | Islanders | Addy Lucas '28 Greg Dolewski '31 Unreported Sailor '19 |
Peyton Rollins '26 Michael Hedgecock '29 Unreported Sailor '19 |
|
Grafton High School | Varsity | Nikki Baldwin '14 | Elizabeth Ballman '15 Nikki Baldwin '14 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.13 means a rating gap counts about 12% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
