Grafton High School '14
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.11 | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.01 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 32–52 (38%) as crew 42–63 (40%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2018 | 2 | 6–24 | 5–19 |
| Spring 2017 | 1 | 2–6 | 4–12 |
| Spring 2016 | 1 | 5–3 | 5–3 |
| Fall 2015 | 2 | 19–19 | 28–29 |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 12 graded regattas (189 matches) the record is 74–115 against 107.5 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−33.5). 1 regatta clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 6 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 45 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018-05-12 | VISA 2v2 Team Race Regatta | skipper | 0.60 | 0.34 | 3–9 | 3.4 | −0.26 | 0.1 | 73% |
| 2018-05-12 | VISA 2v2 Team Race Regatta | crew | 0.60 | 0.34 | 3–9 | 3.4 | −0.26 | 0.1 | 73% |
| 2018-03-22 | VISA Peninsula Team Race Series | skipper | 0.79 | -2.20 | 3–15 | 11.9 | −2.99 | 13.8 | >99% |
| 2018-03-22 | VISA Peninsula Team Race Series | crew | 0.79 | -2.20 | 2–10 | 7.9 | −2.99 | 9.2 | >99% |
| 2017-04-22 | VISA HRA 2v2 Team Race Regatta | skipper | 0.53 | -0.68 | 2–6 | 3.6 | −1.22 | 1.0 | 94% |
| 2017-04-22 | VISA HRA 2v2 Team Race Regatta | crew | 0.53 | -0.68 | 4–12 | 7.1 | −1.22 | 2.0 | 97% |
| 2016-04-23 | VISA Maury 2v2 Team Race Regatta | skipper | 1.16 | 2.11 | 5–3 | 4.1 | +0.95 | 0.5 | 35% |
| 2016-04-23 | VISA Maury 2v2 Team Race Regatta | crew | 1.16 | 2.11 | 5–3 | 4.1 | +0.95 | 0.5 | 35% |
| 2015-10-24 | VISA NCS 2x2 Team Race Champions | skipper | 0.91 | 2.05 | 5–3 | 3.8 | +1.14 | 0.8 | 26% |
| 2015-10-24 | VISA NCS 2x2 Team Race Champions | crew | 0.91 | 2.01 | 7–5 | 5.1 | +1.10 | 1.2 | 16% |
| 2015-10-08 | Peninsula Team Race | skipper | 0.90 | -0.57 | 14–16 | 21.3 | −1.46 | 6.2 | >99% |
| 2015-10-08 | Peninsula Team Race | crew | 0.90 | -0.57 | 21–24 | 31.9 | −1.46 | 9.3 | >99% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| VISA Peninsula Team Race Series | Skipper | TR | 6 | 17% | — |
| VISA 2v2 Team Race Regatta | Skipper | TR | 12 | 25% | — |
| Spring 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| VISA HRA 2v2 Team Race Regatta | Crew | TR | 8 | 25% | — |
| Spring 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| VISA Poquoson Fleet Race Regatta | Crew | A | 2 | 5.0 | — |
| VISA Maury 2v2 Team Race Regatta | Skipper | TR | — | — | — |
| VISA Christchurch School Fleet Race Regatta | Crew | A | 2 | 14.5 | — |
| Fall 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| VISA NCS 2x2 Team Race Champions | Skipper | TR | 8 | 62% | — |
| Peninsula Team Race | Skipper | TR | 15 | 47% | — |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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