| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Nansemond-Suffolk Academy | Saints | 13–1 |
| 2 |  |
Norfolk Collegiate School | Oaks 1 | 9–5 |
| 3 |  |
York High School | Varsity 2 | 9–5 |
| 4 | |
Norfolk Collegiate School | Oaks 2 | 8–6 |
| 5 |  |
Poquoson High School | Islanders 2 | 7–7 |
| 6 | |
York High School | Varsity 1 | 6–8 |
| 7 | |
Poquoson High School | Islanders 1 | 6–6 |
| 8 |  |
Maury High School | Commodores | 5–7 |
| 9 |  |
Grafton High School | Varsity | 3–9 |
| 10 |  |
Frank W. Cox High School | Falcons | 0–0 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 4,958 team race matches sailed before 2018-05-12, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 48 of 66 matches (73%) with a log-loss of 0.563 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went about as expected for the forecast. Orderliness −0.43 ± 0.29: an upset-heavy event, more orderly than 19% of high school team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nansemond-Suffolk Academy Saints | 3.32 | 6.22 | 13–1 | 9.0 | +2.90 | 5.3 | 1% |
| 5 | Poquoson High School Islanders 2 | 1.33 | 2.70 | 7–7 | 4.2 | +1.37 | 2.3 | 7% |
| 3 | York High School Varsity 2 | 2.21 | 3.53 | 9–5 | 6.2 | +1.31 | 2.0 | 8% |
| 8 | Maury High School Commodores | 1.00 | 1.48 | 5–7 | 4.2 | +0.48 | 0.2 | 40% |
| 9 | Grafton High School Varsity | 0.64 | 0.38 | 3–9 | 3.4 | −0.26 | 0.1 | 73% |
| 4 | Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks 2 | 3.35 | 2.83 | 8–6 | 9.1 | −0.52 | 0.3 | 84% |
| 7 | Poquoson High School Islanders 1 | 2.35 | 1.78 | 6–6 | 7.0 | −0.57 | 0.3 | 85% |
| 6 | York High School Varsity 1 | 3.22 | 1.94 | 6–8 | 8.7 | −1.28 | 2.0 | 98% |
| 2 | Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks 1 | 4.65 | 3.17 | 9–5 | 11.7 | −1.48 | 2.4 | 99% |
| 10 | Frank W. Cox High School Falcons | 0.07 | -2.94 | 0–12 | 2.5 | ≤−3.00 | 3.8 | >99% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harrison Parker | Nansemond-Suffolk Academy | 1.57 | 4.47 | 13–1 | 9.0 | +2.90 | 5.3 | 1% |
| Lost Rudder | Poquoson High School | 0.54 | 1.91 | 7–7 | 4.2 | +1.37 | 2.3 | 7% |
| Kai Vylet | York High School | 0.42 | 1.73 | 9–5 | 6.2 | +1.31 | 2.0 | 8% |
| Jalen Rogers | Maury High School | 0.42 | 0.91 | 5–7 | 4.2 | +0.48 | 0.2 | 40% |
| Ben Clarke | York High School | 0.73 | 0.74 | 15–13 | 15.0 | +0.01 | 0.0 | 58% |
| Tyler Cason | Maury High School | 0.40 | 0.23 | 2–4 | 2.1 | −0.17 | 0.0 | 73% |
| Haydon Gould | Grafton High School | 0.27 | 0.01 | 3–9 | 3.4 | −0.26 | 0.1 | 73% |
| Nikki Baldwin | Grafton High School | 0.60 | 0.34 | 3–9 | 3.4 | −0.26 | 0.1 | 73% |
| Jack Mckenna | Poquoson High School | 1.47 | 0.90 | 6–6 | 7.0 | −0.57 | 0.3 | 85% |
| Unreported Sailor | Poquoson High School | 0.69 | 0.12 | 6–6 | 7.0 | −0.57 | 0.3 | 85% |
| Zane Morris | York High School | 1.27 | -0.01 | 6–8 | 8.7 | −1.28 | 2.0 | 98% |
| Logan Deaver | Frank W. Cox High School | -0.56 | -3.56 | 0–12 | 2.5 | ≤−3.00 | 3.8 | >99% |
| Ryan Allman | Frank W. Cox High School | -0.19 | -3.19 | 0–12 | 2.5 | ≤−3.00 | 3.8 | >99% |
| Austin Koontz | Frank W. Cox High School | 0.52 | -2.48 | 0–12 | 2.5 | ≤−3.00 | 3.8 | >99% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Saints | 1-2-5 DNS | def. | |
Falcons | 3-4-6 DNS |
| 2 | |
Commodores | 1-3-6 DNS | def. | |
Varsity | 2-4-5 DNS |
| 3 | |
Oaks 1 | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Oaks 2 | 1-4-6 DNS |
| 4 | |
Varsity 2 | 1-2-6 DNS | def. | |
Varsity 1 | 3-4-5 DNS |
| 5 | |
Islanders 1 | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Islanders 2 | 1-4-6 DNS |
| 6 | |
Saints | 1-2-5 DNS | def. | |
Varsity | 3-4-6 DNS |
| 7 | |
Oaks 1 | 1-3-6 DNS | def. | |
Commodores | 2-4-5 DNS |
| 8 | |
Varsity 2 | 1-3-5 DNS | def. | |
Oaks 2 | 2-4-6 DNS |
| 9 | |
Islanders 2 | 1-2-6 DNS | def. | |
Varsity 1 | 3-4-5 DNS |
| 10 | |
Islanders 1 | 1-2-5 DNS | def. | |
Falcons | 3-4-6 DNS |
| 11 | |
Oaks 1 | 1-3-5 DNS | def. | |
Varsity | 2-4-6 DNS |
| 12 | |
Saints | 1-2-5 DNS | def. | |
Varsity 2 | 3-4-6 DNS |
| 13 | |
Islanders 2 | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Commodores | 3-4-6 |
| 14 | |
Varsity 1 | 1-2-6 DNS | def. | |
Falcons | 3-4-5 DNS |
| 15 | |
Oaks 2 | 1-2-5 DNS | def. | |
Islanders 1 | 3-4-6 DNS |
| 16 | |
Saints | 1-3-5 DNS | def. | |
Oaks 1 | 2-4-6 DNS |
| 17 | |
Varsity 2 | 1-2-5 DNS | def. | |
Commodores | 3-4-6 DNS |
| 18 | |
Varsity | 1-2-5 DNS | def. | |
Islanders 2 | 3-4-6 DNF,DNS |
| 19 | |
Oaks 2 | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Falcons | 1-4-6 DNS |
| 20 | |
Varsity 1 | 1-2-5 DNS | def. | |
Islanders 1 | 3-4-6 DNS |
| 21 | |
Saints | 1-2-5 DNS | def. | |
Commodores | 3-4-6 DNS |
| 22 | |
Islanders 2 | 1-3-5 DNS | def. | |
Oaks 1 | 2-4-6 DNS |
| 23 | |
Varsity | 1-3-5 DNS | def. | |
Falcons | 2-4-6 DNS |
| 24 | |
Oaks 2 | 1-2-6 DNS | def. | |
Varsity 1 | 3-4-5 DNS |
| 25 | |
Varsity 2 | 1-2-5 DNS | def. | |
Islanders 1 | 3-4-6 DNS |
| 26 | |
Saints | 1-2-5 DNS | def. | |
Islanders 2 | 3-4-6 DNS |
| 27 | |
Commodores | 1-2-5 DNS | def. | |
Falcons | 3-4-6 DNS |
| 28 | |
Varsity 1 | 1-2-5 DNS | def. | |
Varsity | 3-4-6 DNS |
| 29 | |
Oaks 1 | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Varsity 2 | 1-4-6 DNS |
| 30 | |
Oaks 2 | 1-3-5 DNS | def. | |
Islanders 2 | 2-4-6 DNS |
| 31 | |
Saints | 1-3-5 DNS | def. | |
Islanders 1 | 2-4-6 DNS |
| 32 | |
Varsity 1 | 1-2-5 DNS | def. | |
Commodores | 3-4-6 DNS |
| 33 | |
Oaks 1 | 1-2-6 DNS | def. | |
Falcons | 3-4-5 DNS |
| 34 | |
Varsity 2 | 1-2-5 DNF | def. | |
Varsity | 3-4-6 DNF |
| 35 | |
Saints | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Oaks 2 | 1-4-6 DNS |
| 36 | |
Islanders 1 | 1-2-5 DNS | def. | |
Commodores | 3-4-6 DNS |
| 37 | |
Varsity 1 | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Oaks 1 | 1-4-6 DNS |
| 38 | |
Islanders 2 | 1-2-5 DNS | def. | |
Varsity 2 | 3-4-6 DNS |
| 39 | |
Islanders 1 | 1-2-6 DNS | def. | |
Varsity | 3-4-5 DNS |
| 40 | |
Oaks 2 | 1-2-5 DNS | def. | |
Commodores | 3-4-6 DNS |
| 41 | |
Saints | 1-2-5 DNS | def. | |
Varsity 1 | 3-4-6 DNS |
| 42 | |
Varsity 2 | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Falcons | 3-4-6 |
| 43 | |
Oaks 1 | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Islanders 1 | 2-4-6 |
| 44 | |
Oaks 2 | 1-2-6 DNS | def. | |
Varsity | 3-4-5 DNS |
| 45 | |
Islanders 2 | 1-2-5 DNS | def. | |
Falcons | 3-4-6 DNS |
| 49 | |
Commodores | 1-2-5 DNS | def. | |
Varsity | 3-4-6 DNS |
| 50 | |
Islanders 1 | 1-2-5 DNS | def. | |
Falcons | 3-4-6 DNS |
| 54 | |
Commodores | 1-2-5 DNS | def. | |
Falcons | 3-4-6 DNS |
| 55 | |
Islanders 1 | 1-3-5 DNS | def. | |
Varsity | 2-4-6 DNS |
| 59 | |
Varsity | 1-2-5 DNS | def. | |
Falcons | 3-4-6 DNS |
| 60 | |
Commodores | 1-2-5 DNS | def. | |
Islanders 1 | 3-4-6 DNS |
| 46 | |
Oaks 1 | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Varsity 1 | 1-4-6 DNS |
| 47 | |
Varsity 2 | 1-3-5 DNS | def. | |
Oaks 2 | 2-4-6 DNS |
| 48 | |
Saints | 1-3-5 DNS | def. | |
Islanders 2 | 2-4-6 DNS |
| 51 | |
Oaks 1 | 1-3-5 DNS | def. | |
Varsity 2 | 2-4-6 DNS |
| 52 | |
Varsity 1 | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Islanders 2 | 1-4-6 DNS |
| 53 | |
Saints | 1-2-5 DNS | def. | |
Oaks 2 | 3-4-6 DNS |
| 56 | |
Islanders 2 | 1-2-5 DNS | def. | |
Varsity 2 | 3-4-6 DNS |
| 57 | |
Oaks 2 | 1-3-5 DNS | def. | |
Oaks 1 | 2-4-6 DNS |
| 58 | |
Saints | 1-2-5 DNS | def. | |
Varsity 1 | 3-4-6 DNS |
| 61 | |
Islanders 2 | 1-2-5 DNS | def. | |
Oaks 2 | 3-4-6 DNS |
| 62 | |
Varsity 2 | 1-2-5 DNS | def. | |
Varsity 1 | 3-4-6 DNS |
| 63 | |
Saints | 1-2-5 DNS | def. | |
Oaks 1 | 3-4-6 DNS |
| 64 | |
Oaks 2 | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Varsity 1 | 1-4-6 DNS |
| 65 | |
Oaks 1 | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Islanders 2 | 1-4-6 DNS |
| 66 | |
Varsity 2 | 1-2-5 DNS | def. | |
Saints | 3-4-6 DNS |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.00 means a rating gap counts about 1% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
