York High School '19
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.38 (fleet 0.61) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.01 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 12–10 (55%) as crew 5–11 (31%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fall 2018 | 1 | 3–5 | — |
| Spring 2018 | 1 | 9–5 | — |
| Fall 2017 | 1 | — | 5–11 |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 3 graded regattas (38 matches) the record is 17–21 against 14.5 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+2.5). 1 regatta clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 0 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 2 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018-10-13 | VISA NCS Team Race Regatta | skipper | 0.72 | 0.43 | 3–5 | 3.3 | −0.29 | 0.0 | 76% |
| 2018-05-12 | VISA 2v2 Team Race Regatta | skipper | 0.42 | 1.73 | 9–5 | 6.2 | +1.31 | 2.0 | 8% |
| 2017-10-14 | VISA Team Race Championship | crew | 0.83 | 0.83 | 5–11 | 5.0 | −0.00 | 0.0 | 62% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fall 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| VISA NCS Team Race Regatta | Skipper | TR | 8 | 38% | — |
| VISA NA/Cox Fleet Regatta | Skipper | B | 5 | 12.6 | 0.07 |
| MASSA Fall SILVER Fleet Champs | Skipper | B | 10 | 10.6 | 0.38 |
| Spring 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| VISA York Fleet Race Regatta | Skipper | B | 7 | 8.9 | 0.54 |
| VISA NSA/Cox Fleet Race Regatta | Skipper | B | 6 | 8.8 | 0.09 |
| VISA NCS Fleet Race Regatta | Skipper | B | 7 | 8.1 | 0.11 |
| Visa Fleet Championship Regatta | Skipper | A | 7 | 16.7 | -1.84 |
| VISA CCS Fleet Race Regatta | Skipper | B | 5 | 9.6 | -0.25 |
| VISA 2v2 Team Race Regatta | Skipper | TR | 14 | 64% | — |
| Fall 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| VISA York County Fleet Race Regatta | Skipper | B | 7 | 14.6 | -0.07 |
| VISA Team Race Championship | Crew | TR | 16 | 31% | — |
| VISA NSA Fleet Race Regatta (Team 2) | Skipper | B | 6 | 4.8 | 0.24 |
| VISA Maury Fleet Race Regatta | Skipper | B | 5 | 14.8 | -0.26 |
| VISA Fleet Race Championship Regatta | Skipper | B | 8 | 10.4 | -0.16 |
| VISA CCS Team 1 Fleet Race Regatta | Skipper | B | 5 | 11.0 | -0.23 |
| Spring 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| VISA Maury Fleet Race JV Regatta | Crew | A | 3 | 3.0 | — |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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