| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Christchurch School | Seahorses 1 | 13–0 |
| 2 |  |
Norfolk Collegiate School | Oaks 1 | 8–5 |
| 3 |  |
Norfolk Academy | Bulldogs 1 | 9–3 |
| 4 |  |
Poquoson High School | Islanders | 5–7 |
| 5 |  |
Hampton Roads Academy | Navigators 1 | 3–5 |
| 6 |  |
York High School | Varsity | 3–5 |
| 7 |  |
Kecoughtan High School | Warriors | 2–6 |
| 8 |  |
Peninsula Catholic High School | Knights | 0–0 |
| 9 |  |
Hampton High School | Crabbers | 1–7 |
| 10 | |
Christchurch School | Seahorses 2 | 10–1 |
| 11 | |
Norfolk Collegiate School | Oaks 2 | 9–2 |
| 12 | |
Norfolk Academy | Bulldogs 2 | 7–4 |
| 13 |  |
Nansemond-Suffolk Academy | Saints | 6–5 |
| 14 |  |
Phoebus High School | Phantoms | 3–5 |
| 15 |  |
Grafton High School | Varsity | 3–5 |
| 16 | |
Hampton Roads Academy | Navigators 2 | 3–5 |
| 17 |  |
Catholic High School | Crusaders | 1–7 |
| 18 |  |
Walsingham Academy | Trojans | 0–8 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 5,570 team race matches sailed before 2018-10-13, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 38 of 45 matches (84%) with a log-loss of 0.291 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. Orderliness +0.35 ± 0.34: an orderly event, more orderly than 66% of high school team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Christchurch School Seahorses 1 | 7.46 | 10.46 | 13–0 | 12.4 | ≥+3.00 | 0.8 | 53% |
| 3 | Norfolk Academy Bulldogs 1 | 3.95 | 5.09 | 9–3 | 7.6 | +1.14 | 0.9 | 25% |
| 4 | Poquoson High School Islanders | 1.93 | 2.98 | 5–7 | 3.6 | +1.05 | 0.9 | 23% |
| 5 | Hampton Roads Academy Navigators 1 | 1.38 | 1.81 | 3–5 | 2.5 | +0.43 | 0.1 | 51% |
| 6 | York High School Varsity | 2.00 | 1.71 | 3–5 | 3.3 | −0.29 | 0.0 | 76% |
| 2 | Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks 1 | 5.53 | 5.12 | 8–5 | 8.4 | −0.41 | 0.1 | 81% |
| 9 | Hampton High School Crabbers | 0.66 | -0.18 | 1–7 | 1.6 | −0.85 | 0.3 | 86% |
| 8 | Peninsula Catholic High School Knights | 0.95 | -0.31 | 1–7 | 2.0 | −1.26 | 0.7 | 92% |
| 7 | Kecoughtan High School Warriors | 2.20 | 0.68 | 2–6 | 3.6 | −1.52 | 1.3 | 96% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mariana Guzman Casas | Christchurch School | 2.36 | 5.36 | 13–0 | 12.4 | ≥+3.00 | 0.8 | 53% |
| Tristan Elden | Christchurch School | 1.29 | 4.29 | 5–0 | 4.8 | ≥+3.00 | 0.3 | 79% |
| Jack Mckenna | Poquoson High School | 1.77 | 2.82 | 5–7 | 3.6 | +1.05 | 0.9 | 23% |
| Emmaline Dicarlo | Poquoson High School | -0.33 | 0.73 | 5–7 | 3.6 | +1.05 | 0.9 | 23% |
| Alex Kitay | Hampton Roads Academy | 0.60 | 1.03 | 3–5 | 2.5 | +0.43 | 0.1 | 51% |
| Connor Duggan | Hampton Roads Academy | -0.33 | 0.10 | 3–5 | 2.5 | +0.43 | 0.1 | 51% |
| Kai Vylet | York High School | 0.72 | 0.43 | 3–5 | 3.3 | −0.29 | 0.0 | 76% |
| Avery Mcnight | Hampton High School | 0.40 | -0.44 | 1–7 | 1.6 | −0.85 | 0.3 | 86% |
| Britt Cortina | Peninsula Catholic High School | 0.82 | -0.44 | 1–7 | 2.0 | −1.26 | 0.7 | 92% |
| Will Robertson | Peninsula Catholic High School | -0.61 | -1.88 | 1–7 | 2.0 | −1.26 | 0.7 | 92% |
| Paula Ann Robertson | Peninsula Catholic High School | 0.48 | -0.78 | 1–7 | 2.0 | −1.26 | 0.7 | 92% |
| Cole Handly | Kecoughtan High School | 1.32 | -0.20 | 2–6 | 3.6 | −1.52 | 1.3 | 96% |
| Gavin Smith | Kecoughtan High School | 0.41 | -1.11 | 2–6 | 3.6 | −1.52 | 1.3 | 96% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| Rd | # | Winner | Loser | P(winner) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks 1 | Peninsula Catholic High School Knights | 98% | ||
| 2 | Christchurch School Seahorses 1 | Hampton Roads Academy Navigators 1 | 100% | ||
| 3 | Kecoughtan High School Warriors | Hampton High School Crabbers | 79% | ||
| 4 | Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks 1 | York High School Varsity | 94% | ||
| 5 | Poquoson High School Islanders | Peninsula Catholic High School Knights | 68% | ||
| 6 | Norfolk Academy Bulldogs 1 | Kecoughtan High School Warriors | 79% | ||
| 7 | Christchurch School Seahorses 1 | York High School Varsity | 99% | ||
| 8 | Poquoson High School Islanders | Hampton High School Crabbers | 74% | ||
| 9 | Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks 1 | Hampton Roads Academy Navigators 1 | 96% | ||
| 10 | Christchurch School Seahorses 1 | Kecoughtan High School Warriors | 97% | ||
| 11 | York High School Varsity | Peninsula Catholic High School Knights | 70% | ||
| 12 | Norfolk Academy Bulldogs 1 | Hampton High School Crabbers | 93% | ||
| 13 | Hampton Roads Academy Navigators 1 | Kecoughtan High School Warriors | 33% | upset | |
| 14 | Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks 1 | Poquoson High School Islanders | 95% | ||
| 15 | Christchurch School Seahorses 1 | Hampton High School Crabbers | 99% | ||
| 16 | Kecoughtan High School Warriors | Peninsula Catholic High School Knights | 74% | ||
| 17 | Norfolk Academy Bulldogs 1 | Hampton Roads Academy Navigators 1 | 85% | ||
| 18 | Poquoson High School Islanders | York High School Varsity | 46% | upset | |
| 19 | Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks 1 | Hampton High School Crabbers | 98% | ||
| 20 | Norfolk Academy Bulldogs 1 | Peninsula Catholic High School Knights | 89% | ||
| 21 | Hampton Roads Academy Navigators 1 | York High School Varsity | 39% | upset | |
| 22 | Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks 1 | Kecoughtan High School Warriors | 93% | ||
| 23 | Christchurch School Seahorses 1 | Poquoson High School Islanders | 97% | ||
| 24 | Hampton Roads Academy Navigators 1 | Peninsula Catholic High School Knights | 58% | ||
| 25 | Norfolk Academy Bulldogs 1 | York High School Varsity | 82% | ||
| 26 | Poquoson High School Islanders | Kecoughtan High School Warriors | 47% | upset | |
| 27 | Peninsula Catholic High School Knights | Hampton High School Crabbers | 56% | ||
| 28 | Christchurch School Seahorses 1 | Norfolk Academy Bulldogs 1 | 88% | ||
| 29 | Poquoson High School Islanders | Hampton Roads Academy Navigators 1 | 58% | ||
| 30 | York High School Varsity | Hampton High School Crabbers | 73% | ||
| 31 | Norfolk Academy Bulldogs 1 | Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks 1 | 24% | upset | |
| 32 | Christchurch School Seahorses 1 | Peninsula Catholic High School Knights | 99% | ||
| 33 | York High School Varsity | Kecoughtan High School Warriors | 48% | upset | |
| 34 | Hampton High School Crabbers | Hampton Roads Academy Navigators 1 | 36% | upset | |
| 35 | Norfolk Academy Bulldogs 1 | Poquoson High School Islanders | 84% | ||
| 36 | Christchurch School Seahorses 1 | Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks 1 | 92% | ||
| 1 | 73 | Christchurch School Seahorses 1 | Poquoson High School Islanders | 97% | |
| 1 | 75 | Christchurch School Seahorses 1 | Poquoson High School Islanders | 97% | |
| 1 | 77 | Norfolk Academy Bulldogs 1 | Poquoson High School Islanders | 84% | |
| 1 | 78 | Christchurch School Seahorses 1 | Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks 1 | 92% | |
| 2 | 74 | Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks 1 | Norfolk Academy Bulldogs 1 | 76% | |
| 2 | 76 | Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks 1 | Norfolk Academy Bulldogs 1 | 76% | |
| 2 | 79 | Norfolk Academy Bulldogs 1 | Poquoson High School Islanders | 84% | |
| 2 | 80 | Christchurch School Seahorses 1 | Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks 1 | 92% | |
| 3 | 81 | Christchurch School Seahorses 1 | Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks 1 | 92% |
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Oaks 1 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Knights | 4-5-6 |
| 2 | |
Seahorses 1 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Navigators 1 | 4-5-6 |
| 3 | |
Warriors | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Crabbers | 2-4-6 |
| 4 | |
Oaks 1 | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Varsity | 3-5-6 |
| 5 | |
Islanders | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Knights | 2-5-6 |
| 6 | |
Bulldogs 1 | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Warriors | 3-5-6 |
| 7 | |
Seahorses 1 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Varsity | 4-5-6 |
| 8 | |
Islanders | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Crabbers | 3-5-6 |
| 9 | |
Oaks 1 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Navigators 1 | 4-5-6 |
| 10 | |
Seahorses 1 | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Warriors | 3-4-6 |
| 11 | |
Varsity | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Knights | 3-5-6 |
| 12 | |
Bulldogs 1 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Crabbers | 4-5-6 |
| 13 | |
Navigators 1 | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Warriors | 1-5-6 |
| 14 | |
Oaks 1 | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Islanders | 3-5-6 |
| 15 | |
Seahorses 1 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Crabbers | 4-5-6 |
| 16 | |
Warriors | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Knights | 1-5-6 |
| 17 | |
Bulldogs 1 | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Navigators 1 | 3-4-6 |
| 18 | |
Islanders | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Varsity | 3-4-5 |
| 19 | |
Oaks 1 | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Crabbers | 3-5-6 |
| 20 | |
Bulldogs 1 | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Knights | 3-5-6 |
| 21 | |
Navigators 1 | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Varsity | 2-4-5 |
| 22 | |
Oaks 1 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Warriors | 4-5-6 |
| 23 | |
Seahorses 1 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Islanders | 4-5-6 |
| 24 | |
Navigators 1 | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Knights | 2-4-6 |
| 25 | |
Bulldogs 1 | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Varsity | 3-5-6 |
| 26 | |
Islanders | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Warriors | 3-4-6 |
| 27 | |
Knights | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Crabbers | 2-4-5 |
| 28 | |
Seahorses 1 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Bulldogs 1 | 4-5-6 |
| 29 | |
Islanders | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Navigators 1 | 1-5-6 |
| 30 | |
Varsity | 1-2-5 DNS | def. | |
Crabbers | 3-4-6 DNS |
| 31 | |
Bulldogs 1 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Oaks 1 | 4-5-6 |
| 32 | |
Seahorses 1 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Knights | 4-5-6 |
| 33 | |
Varsity | 1-2-5 DNS | def. | |
Warriors | 3-4-6 DNS |
| 34 | |
Crabbers | 1-3-5 DNS | def. | |
Navigators 1 | 2-4-6 DNS |
| 35 | |
Bulldogs 1 | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Islanders | 3-4-5 |
| 36 | |
Seahorses 1 | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Oaks 1 | 3-5-6 |
| 37 | |
Oaks 2 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Varsity | 4-5-6 |
| 38 | |
Seahorses 2 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Crusaders | 4-5-6 |
| 39 | |
Saints | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Trojans | 4-5-6 |
| 40 | |
Oaks 2 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Phantoms | 4-5-6 |
| 41 | |
Navigators 2 | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Varsity | 1-5-6 |
| 42 | |
Bulldogs 2 | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Saints | 3-4-5 |
| 43 | |
Seahorses 2 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Phantoms | 4-5-6 |
| 44 | |
Navigators 2 | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Trojans | 1-4-6 |
| 45 | |
Oaks 2 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Crusaders | 4-5-6 |
| 46 | |
Seahorses 2 | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Saints | 3-5-6 |
| 47 | |
Varsity | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Phantoms | 2-3-6 |
| 48 | |
Bulldogs 2 | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Trojans | 3-5-6 |
| 49 | |
Saints | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Crusaders | 1-4-6 |
| 50 | |
Oaks 2 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Navigators 2 | 4-5-6 |
| 51 | |
Seahorses 2 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Trojans | 4-5-6 |
| 52 | |
Saints | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Varsity | 3-4-6 |
| 53 | |
Bulldogs 2 | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Crusaders | 3-5-6 |
| 54 | |
Phantoms | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Navigators 2 | 3-5-6 |
| 55 | |
Oaks 2 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Trojans | 4-5-6 |
| 56 | |
Bulldogs 2 | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Varsity | 3-4-6 |
| 57 | |
Phantoms | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Crusaders | 3-5-6 |
| 58 | |
Oaks 2 | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Saints | 3-4-6 |
| 59 | |
Seahorses 2 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Navigators 2 | 4-5-6 |
| 60 | |
Varsity | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Crusaders | 3-4-5 |
| 61 | |
Bulldogs 2 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Phantoms | 4-5-6 |
| 62 | |
Saints | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Navigators 2 | 2-4-5 |
| 63 | |
Varsity | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Trojans | 3-4-6 |
| 64 | |
Seahorses 2 | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Bulldogs 2 | 3-4-5 |
| 65 | |
Navigators 2 | 1-2-6 DNF | def. | |
Crusaders | 3-4-5 |
| 66 | |
Phantoms | 1-3-6 DNS | def. | |
Trojans | 2-4-5 |
| 67 | |
Oaks 2 | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Bulldogs 2 | 2-3-6 |
| 68 | |
Seahorses 2 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Varsity | 4-5-6 |
| 69 | |
Saints | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Phantoms | 3-5-6 DNS |
| 70 | |
Crusaders | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Trojans | 4-5-6 |
| 71 | |
Bulldogs 2 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Navigators 2 | 4-5-6 |
| 72 | |
Oaks 2 | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Seahorses 2 | 2-3-6 |
| 73 | |
Seahorses 1 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Islanders | 4-5-6 |
| 75 | |
Seahorses 1 | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Islanders | 3-5-6 |
| 77 | |
Bulldogs 1 | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Islanders | 1-4-6 |
| 78 | |
Seahorses 1 | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Oaks 1 | 3-4-6 |
| 74 | |
Oaks 1 | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Bulldogs 1 | 3-4-6 |
| 76 | |
Oaks 1 | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Bulldogs 1 | 1-5-6 |
| 79 | |
Bulldogs 1 | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Islanders | 1-4-6 |
| 80 | |
Seahorses 1 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Oaks 1 | 4-5-6 |
| 81 | |
Seahorses 1 | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Oaks 1 | 3-5-6 |
| 82 | |
Bulldogs 2 | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Oaks 2 | 3-4-5 |
| 83 | |
Seahorses 2 | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Saints | 1-5-6 |
| 84 | |
Oaks 2 | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Saints | 2-3-6 |
| 85 | |
Seahorses 2 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Bulldogs 2 | 4-5-6 DNS,DNS,DNS |
| 86 | |
Saints | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Bulldogs 2 | 4-5-6 DNS,DNS,DNS |
| 87 | |
Seahorses 2 | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Oaks 2 | 3-4-5 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.01 means a rating gap counts about 1% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
