Peninsula Catholic High School '21
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| -0.42 (fleet -0.68) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 3–13 (19%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fall 2019 | 2 | 2–6 | — |
| Fall 2018 | 1 | 1–7 | — |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 3 graded regattas (16 matches) the record is 3–13 against 4.5 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−1.5). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 2 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 3 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019-10-10 | VISA Peninsula Team Race Series Three | skipper | -0.22 | -3.22 | 0–4 | 1.1 | ≤−3.00 | 1.8 | >99% |
| 2019-09-18 | VISA Peninsula Team Race Series 1 | skipper | -0.32 | 0.81 | 2–2 | 1.3 | +1.13 | 0.4 | 40% |
| 2018-10-13 | VISA NCS Team Race Regatta | skipper | -0.61 | -1.88 | 1–7 | 2.0 | −1.26 | 0.7 | 92% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fall 2019 Season | |||||
| VISA Poquoson Fleet Race Team 1 | Skipper | B | 3 | 12.0 | -1.16 |
| VISA TCIS Championship | Skipper | A | 8 | 18.0 | -1.90 |
| VISA Peninsula Team Race Series Three | Skipper | TR | 4 | 0% | — |
| VISA Peninsula Team Race Series 1 | Skipper | TR | 4 | 50% | — |
| ViSA Maury/Granby Regatta | Skipper | B | 5 | 20.2 | -2.14 |
| VISA HCS Fleet Race Regatta | Skipper | B | 6 | 10.7 | -0.30 |
| VISA Fleet Championship | Skipper | A | 4 | 18.5 | -1.07 |
| VISA CCS Leukemia Cup Regatta | Skipper | B | 6 | 11.5 | 0.07 |
| MASSA Fall Silver Fleet Championship | Skipper | B | 8 | 14.6 | -1.48 |
| Fall 2018 Season | |||||
| VISA TCIS Championship | Skipper | A | 6 | 19.2 | -2.56 |
| VISA NCS Team Race Regatta | Skipper | TR | — | — | — |
| VISA HCS/PC Regatta | Skipper | B | 7 | 12.3 | -1.02 |
| VISA Fleet Race Championship | Skipper | B | 4 | 12.5 | -0.50 |
| VISA CCS Leukemia Cup Regatta | Skipper | B | 6 | 15.0 | -1.33 |
| MASSA Fall SILVER Fleet Champs | Skipper | B | 10 | 17.4 | -2.72 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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