| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Hampton Roads Academy | Navigators | 4–0 |
| 2 |  |
Poquoson High School | Islanders 1 | 3–1 |
| 3 |  |
Kecoughtan High School | Warriors | 2–2 |
| 4 | |
Poquoson High School | Islanders 2 | 1–3 |
| 5 |  |
Peninsula Catholic High School | Knights | 0–4 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 6,861 team race matches sailed before 2019-10-10, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 7 of 10 matches (70%) with a log-loss of 0.434 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. Orderliness +0.49 ± 0.75: a typical event, more orderly than 77% of high school team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hampton Roads Academy Navigators | 2.72 | 5.72 | 4–0 | 2.3 | ≥+3.00 | 3.0 | 9% |
| 4 | Poquoson High School Islanders 2 | 1.15 | 1.10 | 1–3 | 1.0 | −0.06 | 0.0 | 72% |
| 2 | Poquoson High School Islanders 1 | 3.71 | 3.58 | 3–1 | 3.1 | −0.13 | 0.0 | 77% |
| 3 | Kecoughtan High School Warriors | 2.92 | 2.21 | 2–2 | 2.5 | −0.71 | 0.2 | 86% |
| 5 | Peninsula Catholic High School Knights | 1.32 | -1.68 | 0–4 | 1.1 | ≤−3.00 | 1.8 | >99% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Niccolo Nodero | Hampton Roads Academy | 1.83 | 4.83 | 4–0 | 2.3 | ≥+3.00 | 3.0 | 9% |
| Dax Dimuzio | Hampton Roads Academy | -0.38 | 2.62 | 4–0 | 2.3 | ≥+3.00 | 3.0 | 9% |
| Cam Brewer | Poquoson High School | 0.49 | 0.43 | 1–3 | 1.0 | −0.06 | 0.0 | 72% |
| Aubrey Walton | Poquoson High School | 0.32 | 0.27 | 1–3 | 1.0 | −0.06 | 0.0 | 72% |
| Jack Mckenna | Poquoson High School | 2.16 | 2.03 | 3–1 | 3.1 | −0.13 | 0.0 | 77% |
| Eleanor Patterson | Poquoson High School | 0.81 | 0.68 | 3–1 | 3.1 | −0.13 | 0.0 | 77% |
| Britt Cortina | Peninsula Catholic High School | 1.23 | -1.77 | 0–4 | 1.1 | ≤−3.00 | 1.8 | >99% |
| Will Robertson | Peninsula Catholic High School | -0.22 | -3.22 | 0–4 | 1.1 | ≤−3.00 | 1.8 | >99% |
| Katie Fremaux | Peninsula Catholic High School | 0.26 | -2.74 | 0–4 | 1.1 | ≤−3.00 | 1.8 | >99% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| Rd | # | Winner | Loser | P(winner) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Hampton Roads Academy Navigators | Poquoson High School Islanders 2 | 78% | |
| 1 | 2 | Poquoson High School Islanders 1 | Kecoughtan High School Warriors | 65% | |
| 1 | 3 | Poquoson High School Islanders 1 | Peninsula Catholic High School Knights | 87% | |
| 1 | 4 | Kecoughtan High School Warriors | Poquoson High School Islanders 2 | 80% | |
| 1 | 5 | Poquoson High School Islanders 1 | Poquoson High School Islanders 2 | 88% | |
| 1 | 6 | Hampton Roads Academy Navigators | Peninsula Catholic High School Knights | 75% | |
| 1 | 7 | Hampton Roads Academy Navigators | Kecoughtan High School Warriors | 46% | upset |
| 1 | 8 | Poquoson High School Islanders 2 | Peninsula Catholic High School Knights | 48% | upset |
| 1 | 9 | Kecoughtan High School Warriors | Peninsula Catholic High School Knights | 78% | |
| 1 | 10 | Hampton Roads Academy Navigators | Poquoson High School Islanders 1 | 32% | upset |
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Navigators | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Islanders 2 | 3-4-5 |
| 2 | |
Islanders 1 | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Warriors | 1-4-6 |
| 3 | |
Islanders 1 | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Knights | 3-4-6 |
| 4 | |
Warriors | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Islanders 2 | 4-5-6 |
| 5 | |
Islanders 1 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Islanders 2 | 4-5-6 |
| 6 | |
Navigators | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Knights | 3-5-6 |
| 7 | |
Navigators | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Warriors | 3-4-5 |
| 8 | |
Islanders 2 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Knights | 4-5-6 |
| 9 | |
Warriors | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Knights | 4-5-6 |
| 10 | |
Navigators | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Islanders 1 | 3-4-5 |
| School | Team | Skippers | Crew | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Hampton Roads Academy | Navigators | Dax Dimuzio '21 Niccolo Nodero '20 Parker Moore '25 |
Cole Frankenhoff '22 Justus Kaminski '22 Kyle Rutherford '22 |
|
Poquoson High School | Islanders 1 | Chase Brewer '22 Eleanor Patterson '22 Jack Mckenna '20 |
Ava Michel '22 Claire Dicarlo '22 Emmaline Dicarlo '20 |
|
Kecoughtan High School | Warriors | Megan Geith '20 Morgan Handly '21 Tyler Brown '23 |
Gavin Miller '23 Laura Rhodes '20 Ryan Nguyen '20 Peyton Crum '23 Victor Pirnik '22 Charlotte Pirnik '20 |
|
Poquoson High School | Islanders 2 | Aubrey Walton '23 Cam Brewer '24 Grace Watlington '22 |
Tiernan Boyd '23 Mackenzie Haynes '24 Emery Hill '23 |
|
Peninsula Catholic High School | Knights | Britt Cortina '20 Katie Fremaux '20 Will Robertson '21 |
Audrey Merritt '20 Disraeli Brooks '22 Gracie Harris '20 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.17 means a rating gap counts about 15% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
