Peninsula Catholic High School '20
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.96 (fleet 1.56) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 3–13 (19%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fall 2019 | 2 | 2–6 | — |
| Fall 2018 | 1 | 1–7 | — |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 3 graded regattas (16 matches) the record is 3–13 against 4.5 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−1.5). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 2 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 3 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019-10-10 | VISA Peninsula Team Race Series Three | skipper | 1.23 | -1.77 | 0–4 | 1.1 | ≤−3.00 | 1.8 | >99% |
| 2019-09-18 | VISA Peninsula Team Race Series 1 | skipper | 1.11 | 2.23 | 2–2 | 1.3 | +1.13 | 0.4 | 40% |
| 2018-10-13 | VISA NCS Team Race Regatta | skipper | 0.82 | -0.44 | 1–7 | 2.0 | −1.26 | 0.7 | 92% |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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