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VISA CCS Team 1 Fleet Race Regatta

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 1 8 10 18
2 Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 2 12 11 23
3 Norfolk Collegiate School Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks 1 14 24 38
4 Nansemond-Suffolk Academy Nansemond-Suffolk Academy Saints 33 21 54
5 Kecoughtan High School Kecoughtan High School Warriors 1 25 31 56
6 Norfolk Collegiate School Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks 2 26 44 70
7 Norfolk Academy Norfolk Academy Bulldogs 52 28 80
8 Poquoson High School Poquoson High School Islanders 1 40 50 90
9 York High School York High School Varsity 40 55 95
10 Phoebus High School Phoebus High School Phantoms 52 53 105
11 Hampton Roads Academy Hampton Roads Academy Navigators 1 52 53 105
12 Maury High School Maury High School Commodores 66 42 108
13 Peninsula Catholic High School Peninsula Catholic High School Knights 45 72 117
14 Kecoughtan High School Kecoughtan High School Warriors 2 70 55 125
15 Poquoson High School Poquoson High School Islanders 2 71 69 140
16 Hampton Roads Academy Hampton Roads Academy Navigators 2 79 63 142
17 Hampton High School Hampton High School Crabbers 80 84 164
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 TOT Sailors
Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 1 2 1 1 3 1 8 Benton Amthor '19 [1-5]
Reese Bragg '21 [1-4]
Boyd Bragg '19 [5]
Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 2 1 4 2 1 4 12 Nathan Smith '20
Carson Rozell '19
Norfolk Collegiate School Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks 1 4 2 3 2 3 14 Ellie Maus '18
Matt Wright '19
Kecoughtan High School Kecoughtan High School Warriors 1 8 3 4 5 5 25 Cole Handly '19
Grace Joyner '19
Norfolk Collegiate School Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks 2 3 7 6 8 2 26 Parker Purrington '19
Ray Domena '19
Nansemond-Suffolk Academy Nansemond-Suffolk Academy Saints 7 6 8 6 6 33 Harrison Parker '18
Maddy Reynolds '21
Poquoson High School Poquoson High School Islanders 1 5 14 9 4 8 40 Jack Mckenna '20
Eli Teague '19
York High School York High School Varsity 9 10 7 7 7 40 Brian Fox '19
Ethan White '21
Peninsula Catholic High School Peninsula Catholic High School Knights 12 9 5 9 10 45 Britt Cortina '20
Gracie Harris '20
Phoebus High School Phoebus High School Phantoms 6 11 11 13 11 52 Blake Harrington '18
Avery Mcnight '20
Norfolk Academy Norfolk Academy Bulldogs 10 8 13 12 9 52 Jennifer Permenter '21
Henry Campbell '21
Hampton Roads Academy Hampton Roads Academy Navigators 1 11 5 14 10 12 52 Alex Kitay '19
Connor Duggan '19
Maury High School Maury High School Commodores 13 13 10 15 15 66 Paul Trudell '22 [1-2]
Tyler Cason '18 [3-4]
Jalen Rogers '19 [5]
Sophia Bibbo '20 [1-2, 5]
Will Moore '20 [3-4]
Kecoughtan High School Kecoughtan High School Warriors 2 17 12 12 16 13 70 Tyson Denton '21
Ryan Nguyen '20
Poquoson High School Poquoson High School Islanders 2 14 15 15 11 16 71 David Hanna '21 [1-5]
Kalia Haupt '19 [1-2]
Cordell Johnson '19 [3-5]
Hampton Roads Academy Hampton Roads Academy Navigators 2 15 17 16 14 17 79 Krysta Rutherford '19
Diaana Mohsin '19
Hampton High School Hampton High School Crabbers 16 16 17 17 14 80 Nick Winkle '20
Molly Hanson '22
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 TOT Sailors
Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 1 2 2 1 1 4 10 Boyd Bragg '19
Zoe Harding '18
Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 2 1 1 4 3 2 11 Mariana Guzman Casas '19
Jeff Elkin '20
Nansemond-Suffolk Academy Nansemond-Suffolk Academy Saints 5 5 2 4 5 21 Kyle Pfrang '22
Hunter Sznoluch '19
Norfolk Collegiate School Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks 1 3 3 10 2 6 24 Chris Robertson '19
Sam Beck '21
Norfolk Academy Norfolk Academy Bulldogs 4 7 5 9 3 28 Charlie Britt '21
Lydia Sweeney '21
Kecoughtan High School Kecoughtan High School Warriors 1 12 9 3 6 1 31 Sam Brady '19
Laura Rhodes '20
Maury High School Maury High School Commodores 9 4 11 7 11 42 Robert Chase '22
Jackson Walsh '20
Norfolk Collegiate School Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks 2 10 12 7 5 10 44 Alex Schuck '21
Chapman Holt '20
Poquoson High School Poquoson High School Islanders 1 6 13 12 12 7 50 Charlotte Patterson '20
Ashlyn Wise '21
Phoebus High School Phoebus High School Phantoms 13 10 8 10 12 53 Gavin Smith '21
Mallory Soter '20
Hampton Roads Academy Hampton Roads Academy Navigators 1 15 8 9 13 8 53 Olivia Basco '19
Larry Rogers '19
Kecoughtan High School Kecoughtan High School Warriors 2 7 6 13 16 13 55 Morgan Handly '21 [1-5]
Charlotte Pirnik '20 [1-2]
Alexandra Smith '23 [3-5]
York High School York High School Varsity 14 15 6 11 9 55 Kai Vylet '19
Charlie Gibson '20
Hampton Roads Academy Hampton Roads Academy Navigators 2 11 14 14 8 16 63 Scott Spencer '19
Ethan Kutner '18
Poquoson High School Poquoson High School Islanders 2 8 16 17 14 14 69 Eleanor Patterson '22 [1-5]
Claire Dicarlo '22 [1-2]
Amory Haynes '18 [3-5]
Peninsula Catholic High School Peninsula Catholic High School Knights 16 11 15 15 15 72 Rachelle Steins '19 [1-2]
Paula-Ann Robertson '19 [3-5]
Liz Fierro '20 [1-2]
Hampton High School Hampton High School Crabbers 17 17 16 17 17 84 Tyler Brown '22
Ella Hampton '22
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.130+0.13
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2017 (4 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A
Christchurch SchoolChristchurch School Seahorses 111335
Christchurch SchoolChristchurch School Seahorses 222446
Hampton High SchoolHampton High School Crabbers33557
Hampton Roads AcademyHampton Roads Academy Navigators 144668
Hampton Roads AcademyHampton Roads Academy Navigators 255779
Kecoughtan High SchoolKecoughtan High School Warriors 1668810
Kecoughtan High SchoolKecoughtan High School Warriors 2779911
Maury High SchoolMaury High School Commodores88101012
Nansemond-Suffolk AcademyNansemond-Suffolk Academy Saints99111113
Norfolk AcademyNorfolk Academy Bulldogs1010121214
Norfolk Collegiate SchoolNorfolk Collegiate School Oaks 11111131315
Norfolk Collegiate SchoolNorfolk Collegiate School Oaks 21212141416
Peninsula Catholic High SchoolPeninsula Catholic High School Knights1313151517
Phoebus High SchoolPhoebus High School Phantoms141416161
Poquoson High SchoolPoquoson High School Islanders 1151517172
Poquoson High SchoolPoquoson High School Islanders 21616113
York High SchoolYork High School Varsity1717224

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B
Christchurch SchoolChristchurch School Seahorses 122444
Christchurch SchoolChristchurch School Seahorses 233555
Hampton High SchoolHampton High School Crabbers44666
Hampton Roads AcademyHampton Roads Academy Navigators 155777
Hampton Roads AcademyHampton Roads Academy Navigators 266888
Kecoughtan High SchoolKecoughtan High School Warriors 177999
Kecoughtan High SchoolKecoughtan High School Warriors 288101010
Maury High SchoolMaury High School Commodores99111111
Nansemond-Suffolk AcademyNansemond-Suffolk Academy Saints1010121212
Norfolk AcademyNorfolk Academy Bulldogs1111131313
Norfolk Collegiate SchoolNorfolk Collegiate School Oaks 11212141414
Norfolk Collegiate SchoolNorfolk Collegiate School Oaks 21313151515
Peninsula Catholic High SchoolPeninsula Catholic High School Knights1414161616
Phoebus High SchoolPhoebus High School Phantoms1515171717
Poquoson High SchoolPoquoson High School Islanders 11616111
Poquoson High SchoolPoquoson High School Islanders 21717222
York High SchoolYork High School Varsity11333
School / Team SkipperCrew
Christchurch School Christchurch School Benton Amthor '19 [1-5] Reese Bragg '21 [1-4]
Boyd Bragg '19 [5]
Seahorses 1 Boyd Bragg '19 Zoe Harding '18
Christchurch School Christchurch School Nathan Smith '20 Carson Rozell '19
Seahorses 2 Mariana Guzman Casas '19 Jeff Elkin '20
Hampton High School Hampton High School Nick Winkle '20 Molly Hanson '22
Crabbers Tyler Brown '22 Ella Hampton '22
Hampton Roads Academy Hampton Roads Academy Alex Kitay '19 Connor Duggan '19
Navigators 1 Olivia Basco '19 Larry Rogers '19
Hampton Roads Academy Hampton Roads Academy Krysta Rutherford '19 Diaana Mohsin '19
Navigators 2 Scott Spencer '19 Ethan Kutner '18
Kecoughtan High School Kecoughtan High School Cole Handly '19 Grace Joyner '19
Warriors 1 Sam Brady '19 Laura Rhodes '20
Kecoughtan High School Kecoughtan High School Tyson Denton '21 Ryan Nguyen '20
Warriors 2 Morgan Handly '21 [1-5] Charlotte Pirnik '20 [1-2]
Alexandra Smith '23 [3-5]
Maury High School Maury High School Paul Trudell '22 [1-2]
Tyler Cason '18 [3-4]
Jalen Rogers '19 [5]		 Sophia Bibbo '20 [1-2, 5]
Will Moore '20 [3-4]
Commodores Robert Chase '22 Jackson Walsh '20
Nansemond-Suffolk Academy Nansemond-Suffolk Academy Harrison Parker '18 Maddy Reynolds '21
Saints Kyle Pfrang '22 Hunter Sznoluch '19
Norfolk Academy Norfolk Academy Jennifer Permenter '21 Henry Campbell '21
Bulldogs Charlie Britt '21 Lydia Sweeney '21
Norfolk Collegiate School Norfolk Collegiate School Ellie Maus '18 Matt Wright '19
Oaks 1 Chris Robertson '19 Sam Beck '21
Norfolk Collegiate School Norfolk Collegiate School Parker Purrington '19 Ray Domena '19
Oaks 2 Alex Schuck '21 Chapman Holt '20
Peninsula Catholic High School Peninsula Catholic High School Britt Cortina '20 Gracie Harris '20
Knights Rachelle Steins '19 [1-2]
Paula-Ann Robertson '19 [3-5]		 Liz Fierro '20 [1-2]
Phoebus High School Phoebus High School Blake Harrington '18 Avery Mcnight '20
Phantoms Gavin Smith '21 Mallory Soter '20
Poquoson High School Poquoson High School Jack Mckenna '20 Eli Teague '19
Islanders 1 Charlotte Patterson '20 Ashlyn Wise '21
Poquoson High School Poquoson High School David Hanna '21 [1-5] Kalia Haupt '19 [1-2]
Cordell Johnson '19 [3-5]
Islanders 2 Eleanor Patterson '22 [1-5] Claire Dicarlo '22 [1-2]
Amory Haynes '18 [3-5]
York High School York High School Brian Fox '19 Ethan White '21
Varsity Kai Vylet '19 Charlie Gibson '20

Conditions — 10/07/2017 (8am–6pm)

🌦️Light drizzle
Humidity 75%  ·  Pressure 1018.7 hPa

Temperature

77°F
↑ 81°F   ↓ 67°F
Feels like 81°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
6.5 kn
avg  ·  max 8.6 kn
Gusts to 20.0 kn
From S (172°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover58% Sunshine10.7 hrs Humidity75% Pressure1018.7 hPa Rain0.03 in

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: S 10 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Christchurch: a typical day (−0.02)
Nothing in the breeze favours either side; expect results to follow the ratings about as usual.
Fleet adjustment +0.02 (an ordinary fleet) · combined forecast +0.00
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.07 ± 0.11)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.02 means a rating gap counts about 1% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Christchurch by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 7 labelled days at Christchurch, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →