Norfolk Academy '21
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.36 (fleet 2.20) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 21–20 (51%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fall 2019 | 2 | 5–5 | — |
| Fall 2018 | 2 | 13–5 | — |
| Fall 2017 | 1 | 1–5 | — |
| Spring 2017 | 1 | 2–5 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 6 graded regattas (41 matches) the record is 21–20 against 20.5 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+0.5). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 2 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 2 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019-10-12 | VISA NCS Team Race Championship | skipper | 1.53 | 2.06 | 4–3 | 3.4 | +0.53 | 0.2 | 48% |
| 2019-09-19 | VISA Southside Team Race | skipper | 1.47 | 0.67 | 1–2 | 1.4 | −0.79 | 0.2 | 86% |
| 2018-11-03 | 2018 MASSA Fall Team Race Championship | skipper | 1.44 | 1.19 | 4–2 | 4.2 | −0.25 | 0.0 | 76% |
| 2018-10-13 | VISA NCS Team Race Regatta | skipper | 1.37 | 2.50 | 9–3 | 7.6 | +1.14 | 0.9 | 25% |
| 2017-11-04 | MASSA 2017 Fall Team Race Championship | skipper | 1.41 | 0.58 | 1–5 | 1.6 | −0.83 | 0.3 | 86% |
| 2017-04-01 | VISA NCS Team Race Regatta | skipper | 0.43 | 0.21 | 2–5 | 2.2 | −0.22 | 0.0 | 74% |
| League | Name | School | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| ISSA | Charlie Britt |  Maury High School |
'20 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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