Navigate

MASSA 2017 Fall Team Race Championship

# SchoolTeam Rec.
1 Severn School Severn School Admirals 9–1
2 Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 9–1
3 Annapolis High School Annapolis High School Panthers 8–2
4 Ranney School Ranney School Panthers 6–4
4 Norfolk Collegiate School Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks 6–4
6 Rumson-Fair Haven Rumson-Fair Haven Bulldogs 6–4
7 Southern Regional High School Southern Regional High School Rams 5–5
8 St. Mary's High School (MD) St. Mary's High School (MD) Saints 3–7
9 Broadneck High School Broadneck High School Bruins 4–5
10 Key School Key School Zags 4–5
11 Kecoughtan High School Kecoughtan High School Warriors 3–6
12 Norfolk Academy Norfolk Academy Bulldogs 2–7
13 The Stony Brook School The Stony Brook School Bears 1–8
14 Rye High School Rye High School Garnets 0–0

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 3,971 team race matches sailed before 2017-11-04, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 21 of 21 matches (100%) with a log-loss of 0.284 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. Orderliness +0.89 ± 0.51: an orderly event, more orderly than 97% of high school team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

PlaceSchool Pred. Strength Boats (skipper / crew, boat value) Pred. win % Recordvs forecast
2Christchurch School
Seahorses		18.96
school −0.20		Nathan Smith / Eric Demaro 2.94
Benton Amthor / Galt Oliver 3.00 5–0
Robert Bragg / Sally Johnson 3.37 5–0
John Vail / Robert Bragg 1–0
Benton Amthor / Sally Johnson 3.08 1–0		93%6–0 (100%)+0.4
3Annapolis High School
Panthers		26.63Porter Kavle / Ava Walker 2.79
Nicholas Salvesen / Kimberly Leonard 2.27
George Kaye / Jamey Macris 1.57 3–1
George Kaye / Shalom Fadullon 1.60 2–0		63%5–1 (83%)+1.2
6Rumson-Fair Haven
Bulldogs		45.94
school +0.31		Colleen O'Brien / Danny Raphael 2.09
Shaanti Choi-Bose / Oliva Pasquale 1.41
Michaela O'Brien / Amelia Buch 1.96		52%3–3 (50%)−0.1
7Southern Regional High School
Rams		36.10
school −0.14		Tom Green / Joe Mrazek 2.08
Dana Haig / Nate Ertle 2.10
Brielle Willoughby / Bridget Green 2.03		55%4–2 (67%)+0.7
9Broadneck High School
Bruins		55.19
school +0.67		Katherine Bennett / Maggie Mckay 2.16
Emma Snead / Nicole Ryan 1.74
Alex Heim / Lucien Parker 1–2
Sander Miller / Lucien Parker 0.54 1–2		38%2–4 (33%)−0.2
12Norfolk Academy
Bulldogs		64.49Lawson Montgomery / Mihir Damle 1.53
Michael Hostutler / Alek Sas 1.51
Charlie Britt / Cameron Lloyd 1.41		26%1–5 (17%)−0.6
14Rye High School
Garnets		74.33
school +0.15		Van Der Voort Constantyn / Cc Millard
Lise Powers / Gruber Jack
Matthew Wallace / Madeline Saffer		23%0–6 (0%)−1.4

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

PlaceSchoolStrength Perf.RecordExp.
wins		ΔSurprise
(bits)		P(this good
or better)
2Christchurch School8.9611.966–05.6≥+3.000.566%
3Annapolis High School6.638.585–13.8+1.941.225%
7Southern Regional High School6.106.984–23.3+0.880.343%
6Rumson-Fair Haven5.945.803–33.1−0.140.073%
9Broadneck High School5.194.902–42.3−0.290.076%
12Norfolk Academy4.493.661–51.6−0.830.386%
14Rye High School4.331.330–61.4≤−3.002.1>99%

By skipper

SkipperSchoolValue Perf.RecordExp.
wins		ΔSurprise
(bits)		P(this good
or better)
George KayeAnnapolis High School1.573.515–13.8+1.941.225%
Tom GreenSouthern Regional High School2.082.964–23.3+0.880.343%
Alex HeimBroadneck High School0.650.701–21.0+0.050.077%
Sander MillerBroadneck High School0.540.011–21.3−0.530.183%
Lawson MontgomeryNorfolk Academy1.530.701–51.6−0.830.386%
Van Der Voort ConstantynRye High School1.28-1.720–61.4≤−3.002.1>99%
Lise PowersRye High School1.09-1.910–61.4≤−3.002.1>99%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd#WinnerLoser P(winner)
11Southern Regional High SchoolRye High School82%
12Christchurch SchoolRumson-Fair Haven93%
15Annapolis High SchoolBroadneck High School75%
16Rumson-Fair HavenNorfolk Academy75%
19Christchurch SchoolAnnapolis High School88%
110Broadneck High SchoolRye High School68%
113Southern Regional High SchoolRumson-Fair Haven53%
114Annapolis High SchoolNorfolk Academy84%
117Christchurch SchoolBroadneck High School95%
118Annapolis High SchoolSouthern Regional High School60%
121Rumson-Fair HavenRye High School78%
122Christchurch SchoolNorfolk Academy94%
125Annapolis High SchoolRye High School86%
126Christchurch SchoolSouthern Regional High School91%
129Broadneck High SchoolNorfolk Academy62%
130Christchurch SchoolRye High School98%
133Southern Regional High SchoolNorfolk Academy78%
134Rumson-Fair HavenBroadneck High School67%
137Norfolk AcademyRye High School52%
138Annapolis High SchoolRumson-Fair Haven62%
141Southern Regional High SchoolBroadneck High School68%
# Winner Loser Pos.
1 Southern Regional High School Rams 1-2-3 def. Rye High School Garnets 4-5-6
2 Christchurch School Seahorses 1-2-5 def. Rumson-Fair Haven Bulldogs 3-4-6
5 Annapolis High School Panthers 1-2-5 def. Broadneck High School Bruins 3-4-6
6 Rumson-Fair Haven Bulldogs 1-2-3 def. Norfolk Academy Bulldogs 4-5-6
9 Christchurch School Seahorses 1-2-3 def. Annapolis High School Panthers 4-5-6
10 Broadneck High School Bruins 1-2-6 def. Rye High School Garnets 3-4-5
13 Southern Regional High School Rams 1-3-5 def. Rumson-Fair Haven Bulldogs 2-4-6
14 Annapolis High School Panthers 1-2-5 def. Norfolk Academy Bulldogs 3-4-6
17 Christchurch School Seahorses 1-2-4 def. Broadneck High School Bruins 3-5-6
18 Annapolis High School Panthers 1-2-3 def. Southern Regional High School Rams 4-5-6
21 Rumson-Fair Haven Bulldogs 1-2-5 def. Rye High School Garnets 3-4-6
22 Christchurch School Seahorses 1-2-5 def. Norfolk Academy Bulldogs 3-4-6
25 Annapolis High School Panthers 1-2-3 def. Rye High School Garnets 4-5-6
26 Christchurch School Seahorses 1-3-5 def. Southern Regional High School Rams 2-4-6
29 Broadneck High School Bruins 1-2-6 def. Norfolk Academy Bulldogs 3-4-5
30 Christchurch School Seahorses 1-2-3 def. Rye High School Garnets 4-5-6
33 Southern Regional High School Rams 1-2-3 def. Norfolk Academy Bulldogs 4-5-6
34 Rumson-Fair Haven Bulldogs 1-2-5 def. Broadneck High School Bruins 3-4-6
37 Norfolk Academy Bulldogs 1-2-5 def. Rye High School Garnets 3-4-6
38 Annapolis High School Panthers 1-2-5 def. Rumson-Fair Haven Bulldogs 3-4-6
41 Southern Regional High School Rams 2-3-4 def. Broadneck High School Bruins 1-5-6
3 Ranney School Panthers 1-2-5 def. St. Mary's High School (MD) Saints 3-4-6
4 Severn School Admirals 1-2-4 def. The Stony Brook School Bears 3-5-6
7 Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks 1-2-5 def. Kecoughtan High School Warriors 3-4-6
8 Key School Zags 1-2-4 def. The Stony Brook School Bears 3-5-6
11 Severn School Admirals 1-2-5 def. Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks 3-4-6
12 Ranney School Panthers 2-3-4 def. Kecoughtan High School Warriors 1-5-6
15 St. Mary's High School (MD) Saints 2-3-4 def. The Stony Brook School Bears 1-5-6
16 Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks 2-3-4 def. Key School Zags 1-5-6
19 Severn School Admirals 1-2-5 def. Kecoughtan High School Warriors 3-4-6
20 Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks 1-3-5 def. St. Mary's High School (MD) Saints 2-4-6
23 Ranney School Panthers 1-3-4 def. The Stony Brook School Bears 2-5-6
24 Severn School Admirals 1-2-3 def. Key School Zags 4-5-6
27 Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks 1-2-6 def. Ranney School Panthers 3-4-5
28 Severn School Admirals 1-2-3 def. St. Mary's High School (MD) Saints 4-5-6
31 Key School Zags 1-2-5 def. Kecoughtan High School Warriors 3-4-6
32 Severn School Admirals 1-2-6 def. Ranney School Panthers 3-4-5
35 St. Mary's High School (MD) Saints 2-3-4 def. Key School Zags 1-5-6
36 The Stony Brook School Bears 1-3-4 def. Kecoughtan High School Warriors 2-5-6
39 Ranney School Panthers 2-3-4 def. Key School Zags 1-5-6
40 Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks 1-2-5 def. The Stony Brook School Bears 3-4-6
42 St. Mary's High School (MD) Saints 1-2-3 def. Kecoughtan High School Warriors 4-5-6
43 Severn School Admirals 1-2-4 def. Christchurch School Seahorses 3-5-6
44 Ranney School Panthers 1-2-4 def. Southern Regional High School Rams 3-5-6
45 Annapolis High School Panthers 1-2-3 def. St. Mary's High School (MD) Saints 4-5-6
46 Broadneck High School Bruins 1-2-5 def. Key School Zags 3-4-6
47 Norfolk Academy Bulldogs 1-2-3 def. The Stony Brook School Bears 4-5-6
48 Kecoughtan High School Warriors 1-2-4 def. Rye High School Garnets 3-5-6
49 Rumson-Fair Haven Bulldogs 1-4-5 def. Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks 2-3-6
50 Severn School Admirals 1-3-6 def. Southern Regional High School Rams 2-4-5
51 Christchurch School Seahorses 1-2-3 def. St. Mary's High School (MD) Saints 4-5-6
52 Key School Zags 1-3-5 def. Norfolk Academy Bulldogs 2-4-6
53 Kecoughtan High School Warriors 1-2-6 def. Broadneck High School Bruins 3-4-5
54 Rye High School Garnets 1-2-3 def. The Stony Brook School Bears 4-5-6
55 Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks 1-3-5 def. Southern Regional High School Rams 2-4-6
56 Annapolis High School Panthers 1-2-4 def. Ranney School Panthers 3-5-6
57 Rumson-Fair Haven Bulldogs 2-3-5 def. Severn School Admirals 1-4-6
58 Kecoughtan High School Warriors 1-2-6 def. Norfolk Academy Bulldogs 3-4-5
59 Key School Zags 1-2-3 def. Rye High School Garnets 4-5-6
60 Broadneck High School Bruins 1-2-5 def. The Stony Brook School Bears 3-4-6
61 Christchurch School Seahorses 1-2-5 def. Ranney School Panthers 3-4-6
62 Annapolis High School Panthers 2-3-4 def. Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks 1-5-6
63 Southern Regional High School Rams 1-2-6 def. St. Mary's High School (MD) Saints 3-4-5
64 Ranney School Panthers 1-3-4 def. Rumson-Fair Haven Bulldogs 2-5-6
65 Christchurch School Seahorses 1-2-4 def. Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks 3-5-6
66 Severn School Admirals 1-2-6 def. Annapolis High School Panthers 3-4-5
67 Rumson-Fair Haven Bulldogs 1-2-3 def. St. Mary's High School (MD) Saints 4-5-6

Conditions — 11/04/2017 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 70%  ·  Pressure 1025.0 hPa

Temperature

56°F
↑ 59°F   ↓ 52°F
Feels like 52°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
6.7 kn
avg  ·  max 9.7 kn
Gusts to 22.7 kn
From NNE (30°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover96% Sunshine7.2 hrs Humidity70% Pressure1025.0 hPa Rain0.01 in

What this breeze does at St Mary's College — from fleet racing

Breeze: NE about 9 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In fleet races at St Mary's College in this breeze: a typical day (+0.01)
Nothing in this breeze favours either side in fleet racing here: results follow the ratings about as usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.01 means a rating gap counts about 1% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at St Mary's College by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (no labelled days at St Mary's College: the all-venue pattern is shown).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →