Rye High School '19
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.12 (fleet 1.81) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 8–6 (57%) as crew 11–3 (79%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2019 | 2 | — | 11–3 |
| Fall 2018 | 1 | 8–0 | — |
| Fall 2017 | 1 | 0–6 | — |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 3 graded regattas (26 matches) the record is 17–9 against 16.4 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+0.6). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 1 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 4 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019-04-27 | MASSA Team Race Championship (Baker Qualifier) | crew | 1.61 | 2.58 | 9–3 | 7.8 | +0.97 | 0.6 | 30% |
| 2018-10-13 | NYISA-SE Team Race District Championship Qualifier | skipper | 1.21 | 4.21 | 8–0 | 7.2 | ≥+3.00 | 1.1 | 42% |
| 2017-11-04 | MASSA 2017 Fall Team Race Championship | skipper | 1.28 | -1.72 | 0–6 | 1.4 | ≤−3.00 | 2.1 | >99% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fall 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| MASSA Keelboat Qualifier Keelboat | Crew | A | 8 | 3.5 | — |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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