MASSA Team Race Championship (Baker Qualifier)

HostNorfolk Yacht and Country Club
Date04/27/2019
TypeLeague Championship
BoatCFJ
ScoringTeam

#	School	Team	Rec.
1	Severn School	Admirals	19–2
2	Christchurch School	Seahorses	19–2
3	Rye High School	Garnets	14–7
4	Ranney School	Panthers	12–9
5	Norfolk Collegiate School	Oaks	9–12
6	Bethesda - Chevy Chase HS	Battlin' Baron	6–15
7	The Stony Brook School	Bears	3–18
8	Poquoson High School	Islanders	2–19

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 6,160 team race matches sailed before 2019-04-27, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 75 of 84 matches (89%) with a log-loss of 0.316 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. Orderliness +0.12 ± 0.24: a typical event, more orderly than 50% of high school team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

Place	School	Pred.	Strength	Boats (skipper / crew, boat value)	Pred. win %	Record	vs forecast
1	Severn School Admirals	1	9.08 school +0.29	Mariner Fagan / Ryan Wahba 3.19 Jordan Bruce / Andrea Riefkohl 2.68 13–2 Sam Bruce / Addi Harris 2.94 11–1 Jordan Bruce / Caroline Bayless 2.62 6–0 Sam Bruce / Rees Tindall 2.82 6–0 Sam Bruce / Caroline Bayless 2.93 2–1	84%	19–2 (90%)	+1.4
2	Christchurch School Seahorses	2	9.04	Robert Bragg / Jeronimo Guzman 3.07 16–2 Benton Amthor / Carson Rozell 2.86 16–2 Nathan Smith / Anna Flynn 2.99 16–2 Robert Bragg / Reese Bragg 3.24 3–0 Benton Amthor / Jeronimo Guzman 2.69 3–0 Nathan Smith / Carson Rozell 2.94 3–0	83%	19–2 (90%)	+1.5
3	Rye High School Garnets	4	7.11 school +0.09	Michelle Lahrkamp / Elliot Taft 2.76 Vanessa Lahrkamp / Van Der Voort Elizabeth 2.55 Quirke Jacqueline / Van Der Voort Constantyn 1.61 9–3 Quirke Jacqueline / Constantyn Vandervoort 1.56 5–4	58%	14–7 (67%)	+1.9
4	Ranney School Panthers	3	8.02 school +0.19	Luke Arnone / Blake Epstein 3.04 9–9 Cameron Giblin / Will Beyer 2.77 10–8 Brooke Schmelz / John Cocozza 1.95 12–3 Brooke Schmelz / Matthew Hamelsky 1.96 0–6 Cameron Giblin / Matthew Hamelsky 2.84 2–1 Luke Arnone / Matthew Hamelsky 3.03 3–0	71%	12–9 (57%)	−2.8
5	Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks	6	5.68 school −0.30	Parker Purrington / Ray Domena 2.06 Chris Robertson / Sam Beck 2.12 Alex Schuck / Jon Krueger 1.76	38%	9–12 (43%)	+1.1
6	Bethesda - Chevy Chase HS Battlin' Baron	5	5.81 school +0.39	Nick Budington / Liam Gronda 2.13 Friso Grolleman / Anna Grolleman 1.38 Matt Budington / C. Augie Spendley 1.87	39%	6–15 (29%)	−2.3
7	The Stony Brook School Bears	7	3.73	Thomas Derose / Joshua Pavao 1.37 1–17 Will Meitz / Alyssa Jette 0.64 1–17 Jack Crager / Harry Fredericks 1.50 2–13 Jack Crager / Ella Simmons 1.61 1–5 Thomas Derose / Ella Simmons 1.46 2–1 Will Meitz / Margaret Hunt 0.75 2–1	14%	3–18 (14%)	+0.0
8	Poquoson High School Islanders	8	3.70 school +0.28	Jack Mckenna / Emmaline Dicarlo 2.10 Charlotte Patterson / Ashlyn Wise 0.79 Chase Brewer / Claire Dicarlo 0.46	13%	2–19 (10%)	−0.8

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

Place	School	Strength	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
2	Christchurch School	9.04	10.05	19–2	17.5	+1.00	0.8	26%
1	Severn School	9.08	10.01	19–2	17.6	+0.93	0.7	29%
3	Rye High School	7.11	7.92	14–7	12.1	+0.81	0.9	21%
5	Norfolk Collegiate School	5.68	6.14	9–12	7.9	+0.46	0.3	36%
7	The Stony Brook School	3.73	3.73	3–18	3.0	+0.01	0.0	62%
8	Poquoson High School	3.70	3.09	2–19	2.8	−0.60	0.3	83%
6	Bethesda - Chevy Chase HS	5.81	4.77	6–15	8.3	−1.04	1.3	95%
4	Ranney School	8.02	6.84	12–9	14.8	−1.18	1.9	97%

By skipper

Skipper	School	Value	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
Quirke Jacqueline	Rye High School	1.61	2.43	14–7	12.1	+0.81	0.9	21%
Alex Schuck	Norfolk Collegiate School	1.76	2.22	9–12	7.9	+0.46	0.3	36%
Thomas Derose	The Stony Brook School	1.37	1.37	3–18	3.0	+0.01	0.0	62%
Will Meitz	The Stony Brook School	0.64	0.64	3–18	3.0	+0.01	0.0	62%
Jack Mckenna	Poquoson High School	2.10	1.49	2–19	2.8	−0.60	0.3	83%
Friso Grolleman	Bethesda - Chevy Chase HS	1.38	0.34	6–15	8.3	−1.04	1.3	95%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd	#	Winner	Loser	P(winner)
1	1	Norfolk Collegiate School	Poquoson High School	83%
1	2	Rye High School	The Stony Brook School	93%
1	3	Severn School	Bethesda - Chevy Chase HS	93%
1	4	Christchurch School	Ranney School	67%
1	5	Rye High School	Norfolk Collegiate School	75%
1	6	Severn School	Poquoson High School	99%
1	7	Ranney School	The Stony Brook School	97%
1	8	Christchurch School	Bethesda - Chevy Chase HS	92%
1	9	Rye High School	Severn School	17%	upset
1	10	Ranney School	Norfolk Collegiate School	86%
1	11	Bethesda - Chevy Chase HS	Poquoson High School	84%
1	12	Christchurch School	The Stony Brook School	98%
1	13	Severn School	Ranney School	71%
1	14	Rye High School	Bethesda - Chevy Chase HS	73%
1	15	Norfolk Collegiate School	The Stony Brook School	83%
1	16	Christchurch School	Poquoson High School	98%
1	17	Ranney School	Bethesda - Chevy Chase HS	85%
1	18	Severn School	The Stony Brook School	98%
1	19	Rye High School	Poquoson High School	93%
1	20	Christchurch School	Norfolk Collegiate School	93%
1	21	Bethesda - Chevy Chase HS	The Stony Brook School	84%
1	22	Ranney School	Poquoson High School	97%
1	23	Severn School	Norfolk Collegiate School	93%
1	24	Christchurch School	Rye High School	82%
1	25	The Stony Brook School	Poquoson High School	52%
1	26	Norfolk Collegiate School	Bethesda - Chevy Chase HS	47%	upset
1	27	Rye High School	Ranney School	32%	upset
1	28	Severn School	Christchurch School	52%
2	29	Norfolk Collegiate School	Poquoson High School	82%
2	30	The Stony Brook School	Rye High School	7%	upset
2	31	Severn School	Bethesda - Chevy Chase HS	93%
2	32	Christchurch School	Ranney School	69%
2	33	Rye High School	Norfolk Collegiate School	76%
2	34	Severn School	Poquoson High School	99%
2	35	Ranney School	The Stony Brook School	97%
2	36	Christchurch School	Bethesda - Chevy Chase HS	93%
2	37	Severn School	Rye High School	83%
2	38	Norfolk Collegiate School	Ranney School	13%	upset
2	39	Bethesda - Chevy Chase HS	Poquoson High School	84%
2	40	Christchurch School	The Stony Brook School	98%
2	41	Severn School	Ranney School	70%
2	42	Rye High School	Bethesda - Chevy Chase HS	74%
2	43	Norfolk Collegiate School	The Stony Brook School	82%
2	44	Christchurch School	Poquoson High School	98%
2	45	Ranney School	Bethesda - Chevy Chase HS	85%
2	46	Severn School	The Stony Brook School	98%
2	47	Rye High School	Poquoson High School	93%
2	48	Christchurch School	Norfolk Collegiate School	93%
2	49	Bethesda - Chevy Chase HS	The Stony Brook School	84%
2	50	Ranney School	Poquoson High School	97%
2	51	Severn School	Norfolk Collegiate School	93%
2	52	Christchurch School	Rye High School	82%
2	53	Poquoson High School	The Stony Brook School	47%	upset
2	54	Bethesda - Chevy Chase HS	Norfolk Collegiate School	52%
2	55	Rye High School	Ranney School	33%	upset
2	56	Severn School	Christchurch School	51%
3	57	Norfolk Collegiate School	Poquoson High School	82%
3	58	Rye High School	The Stony Brook School	93%
3	59	Severn School	Bethesda - Chevy Chase HS	93%
3	60	Christchurch School	Ranney School	69%
3	61	Rye High School	Norfolk Collegiate School	76%
3	62	Severn School	Poquoson High School	99%
3	63	Ranney School	The Stony Brook School	96%
3	64	Christchurch School	Bethesda - Chevy Chase HS	93%
3	65	Severn School	Rye High School	82%
3	66	Ranney School	Norfolk Collegiate School	87%
3	67	Poquoson High School	Bethesda - Chevy Chase HS	16%	upset
3	68	Christchurch School	The Stony Brook School	98%
3	69	Severn School	Ranney School	70%
3	70	Rye High School	Bethesda - Chevy Chase HS	74%
3	71	Norfolk Collegiate School	The Stony Brook School	82%
3	72	Christchurch School	Poquoson High School	99%
3	73	Ranney School	Bethesda - Chevy Chase HS	85%
3	74	Severn School	The Stony Brook School	98%
3	75	Rye High School	Poquoson High School	93%
3	76	Christchurch School	Norfolk Collegiate School	94%
3	77	Bethesda - Chevy Chase HS	The Stony Brook School	83%
3	78	Ranney School	Poquoson High School	97%
3	79	Severn School	Norfolk Collegiate School	93%
3	80	Christchurch School	Rye High School	82%
3	81	The Stony Brook School	Poquoson High School	53%
3	82	Norfolk Collegiate School	Bethesda - Chevy Chase HS	48%	upset
3	83	Ranney School	Rye High School	67%
3	84	Christchurch School	Severn School	50%

Filter by team:

#					Pos.
1	Oaks	1-2-3	def.	Islanders	4-5-6
2	Garnets	1-2-3	def.	Bears	4-5-6
3	Admirals	1-3-4	def.	Battlin' Baron	2-5-6
4	Seahorses	1-3-4	def.	Panthers	2-5-6
5	Garnets	1-2-3	def.	Oaks	4-5-6
6	Admirals	1-2-3	def.	Islanders	4-5-6
7	Panthers	1-2-3	def.	Bears	4-5-6
8	Seahorses	1-2-3	def.	Battlin' Baron	4-5-6
9	Garnets	1-2-6	def.	Admirals	3-4-5
10	Panthers	1-2-6	def.	Oaks	3-4-5
11	Battlin' Baron	1-2-4	def.	Islanders	3-5-6
12	Seahorses	1-2-3	def.	Bears	4-5-6
13	Admirals	1-2-5	def.	Panthers	3-4-6
14	Garnets	1-2-3	def.	Battlin' Baron	4-5-6
15	Oaks	1-3-4	def.	Bears	2-5-6
16	Seahorses	1-2-3	def.	Islanders	4-5-6
17	Panthers	1-2-3	def.	Battlin' Baron	4-5-6
18	Admirals	1-2-3	def.	Bears	4-5-6
19	Garnets	1-2-3	def.	Islanders	4-5-6
20	Seahorses	1-2-5	def.	Oaks	3-4-6
21	Battlin' Baron	1-2-3	def.	Bears	4-5-6 DNF,DNF,DNF
22	Panthers	1-2-3	def.	Islanders	4-5-6
23	Admirals	1-2-6	def.	Oaks	3-4-5
24	Seahorses	1-2-3	def.	Garnets	4-5-6
25	Bears	1-2-6	def.	Islanders	3-4-5
26	Oaks	1-2-5	def.	Battlin' Baron	3-4-6 DNF
27	Garnets	1-2-4	def.	Panthers	3-5-6
28	Admirals	1-3-6	def.	Seahorses	2-4-5
29	Oaks	1-2-4	def.	Islanders	3-5-6
30	Bears	1-3-4	def.	Garnets	2-5-6
31	Admirals	1-2-3	def.	Battlin' Baron	4-5-6
32	Seahorses	1-2-3	def.	Panthers	4-5-6 DNF
33	Garnets	1-3-4	def.	Oaks	2-5-6
34	Admirals	1-2-3	def.	Islanders	4-5-6 DNF
35	Panthers	1-2-3	def.	Bears	4-5-6
36	Seahorses	1-2-3	def.	Battlin' Baron	4-5-6 DNS,DNS,DNS
37	Admirals	1-2-3	def.	Garnets	4-5-6
38	Oaks	1-2-6	def.	Panthers	3-4-5
39	Battlin' Baron	1-2-3	def.	Islanders	4-5-6
40	Seahorses	1-2-3	def.	Bears	4-5-6
41	Admirals	1-2-3	def.	Panthers	4-5-6
42	Garnets	1-2-3	def.	Battlin' Baron	4-5-6
43	Oaks	1-2-3	def.	Bears	4-5-6
44	Seahorses	1-2-4	def.	Islanders	3-5-6 DNF
45	Panthers	1-2-5	def.	Battlin' Baron	3-4-6
46	Admirals	1-2-3	def.	Bears	4-5-6
47	Garnets	1-2-3	def.	Islanders	4-5-6 DNS,DNS,DNS
48	Seahorses	1-2-5	def.	Oaks	3-4-6
49	Battlin' Baron	1-3-5	def.	Bears	2-4-6
50	Panthers	1-2-3	def.	Islanders	4-5-6
51	Admirals	1-2-6	def.	Oaks	3-4-5
52	Seahorses	1-2-6	def.	Garnets	3-4-5
53	Islanders	1-4-5	def.	Bears	2-3-6
54	Battlin' Baron	1-3-6	def.	Oaks	2-4-5
55	Garnets	1-2-6	def.	Panthers	3-4-5
56	Admirals	1-4-5	def.	Seahorses	2-3-6
57	Oaks	1-2-4	def.	Islanders	3-5-6
58	Garnets	1-2-5	def.	Bears	3-4-6
59	Admirals	1-2-3	def.	Battlin' Baron	4-5-6
60	Seahorses	1-2-5	def.	Panthers	3-4-6
61	Garnets	1-2-5	def.	Oaks	3-4-6
62	Admirals	1-2-3	def.	Islanders	4-5-6
63	Panthers	1-2-3	def.	Bears	4-5-6
64	Seahorses	1-2-5	def.	Battlin' Baron	3-4-6
65	Admirals	1-2-4	def.	Garnets	3-5-6
66	Panthers	1-2-4	def.	Oaks	3-5-6
67	Islanders	2-3-5	def.	Battlin' Baron	1-4-6
68	Seahorses	1-2-3	def.	Bears	4-5-6
69	Admirals	1-2-5	def.	Panthers	3-4-6
70	Garnets	1-2-4	def.	Battlin' Baron	3-5-6
71	Oaks	1-2-4	def.	Bears	3-5-6
72	Seahorses	1-2-3	def.	Islanders	4-5-6
73	Panthers	2-3-4	def.	Battlin' Baron	1-5-6
74	Admirals	1-2-3	def.	Bears	4-5-6
75	Garnets	1-2-3	def.	Islanders	4-5-6
76	Seahorses	2-3-4	def.	Oaks	1-5-6
77	Battlin' Baron	2-3-4	def.	Bears	1-5-6
78	Panthers	1-2-3	def.	Islanders	4-5-6
79	Admirals	1-2-3	def.	Oaks	4-5-6
80	Seahorses	1-3-5	def.	Garnets	2-4-6
81	Bears	1-2-3	def.	Islanders	4-5-6
82	Oaks	1-2-4	def.	Battlin' Baron	3-5-6
83	Panthers	2-3-4	def.	Garnets	1-5-6
84	Seahorses	1-2-5	def.	Admirals	3-4-6

School	Team	Skippers	Crew
Severn School	Admirals	Jordan Bruce '20 Mariner Fagan '20 Sam Bruce '20	Caroline Bayless '19 Andrea Riefkohl '20 Ryan Wahba '20 Rees Tindall '21 Addi Harris '20
Christchurch School	Seahorses	Benton Amthor '19 Boyd Bragg '19 Nathan Smith '20	Carson Rozell '19 Jeronimo Guzman '21 Reese Bragg '21 Anna Flynn '20
Rye High School	Garnets	Lahrkamp Vanessa '22 Michelle Lahrkamp '19 Quirke Jacqueline '21	Van Der Voort Elizabeth '21 Elliot Taft '19 Van Der Voort Constantyn '19 Constantyn Vandervoort '19
Ranney School	Panthers	Brooke Schmelz '21 Cameron Giblin '19 Luke Arnone '19	John Cocozza '20 Matthew Hamelsky '19 Will Beyer '20 Blake Epstein '19
Norfolk Collegiate School	Oaks	Alex Schuck '21 Chris Robertson '19 Parker Purrington '19	Jon Krueger '20 Sam Beck '21 Ray Domena '19
Bethesda - Chevy Chase HS	Battlin' Baron	Friso Grolleman '20 Matt Budington '21 Nick Budington '21	Anna Grolleman '22 C. Augie Spendley '19 Liam Gronda '21
The Stony Brook School	Bears	Jack Crager '20 Thomas Derose '19 Will Meitz '19	Harry Fredericks '22 Ella Simmons '20 Joshua Pavao '20 Alyssa Jette '19 Margaret Hunt '19
Poquoson High School	Islanders	Charlotte Patterson '20 Chase Brewer '22 Jack Mckenna '20	Ashlyn Wise '21 Claire Dicarlo '22 Emmaline Dicarlo '20

Conditions — 04/27/2019 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky

Humidity 39% · Pressure 1011.0 hPa

Temperature

66°F

↑ 70°F ↓ 57°F

Feels like 58°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

13.6 kn

avg · max 15.0 kn

Gusts to 27.4 kn

From W (263°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover0% Sunshine11.0 hrs Humidity39% Pressure1011.0 hPa

What this breeze does at Norfolk Yacht and Country Club — from fleet racing

Breeze: W about 15 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In fleet races at Norfolk Yacht and Country Club in this breeze: an underdogs’ day (−0.08)

Underdogs’ conditions: in fleet racing here the fleet bunches up and lower-rated boats beat the seeds more often than usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.08 means a rating gap counts about 7% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Norfolk Yacht and Country Club by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (32 labelled fleet-race days at Norfolk Yacht and Country Club).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

How team race forecasts workThree boats’ ratings, a school term and a home edge; 78.8% of held-out matches called.
Play 1, Play 2, Play 4: how team races are wonHow often each play happens, how that shifts with breeze and level, and whether a star wins differently.
Which team races go to form?Orderliness is a real property of a team race regatta and nothing known in advance predicts it.

All notes →

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