The Stony Brook School '20
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.31 (fleet 2.11) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.01 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 18–30 (38%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fall 2019 | 1 | 3–4 | — |
| Spring 2019 | 2 | 7–20 | — |
| Fall 2018 | 2 | 8–6 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 5 graded regattas (48 matches) the record is 18–30 against 17.0 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+1.0). 1 regatta clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 1 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 4 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019-11-02 | MASSA Team Race Championship | skipper | 1.67 | 0.48 | 3–4 | 4.1 | −1.20 | 0.8 | 94% |
| 2019-04-27 | MASSA Team Race Championship (Baker Qualifier) | skipper | 1.50 | 1.51 | 3–18 | 3.0 | +0.01 | 0.0 | 62% |
| 2019-04-11 | NYISA-SE Team Race | skipper | 1.47 | 4.11 | 4–2 | 2.0 | +2.65 | 3.1 | 5% |
| 2018-11-03 | 2018 MASSA Fall Team Race Championship | skipper | 1.51 | 1.71 | 3–3 | 2.8 | +0.21 | 0.0 | 61% |
| 2018-10-13 | NYISA-SE Team Race District Championship Qualifier | skipper | 1.36 | 1.30 | 5–3 | 5.1 | −0.06 | 0.0 | 70% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fall 2019 Team page Season | |||||
| MASSA Team Race Championship | Skipper | TR | 16 | 31% | — |
| Spring 2019 Team page Season | |||||
| Spring Fling Regatta | Skipper | A | 6 | 1.5 | 3.59 |
| NYISA-SE Team Race | Skipper | TR | 6 | 67% | — |
| NYISA-SE League Fleet Race Championships | Skipper | B | 3 | 3.7 | 1.29 |
| New York State Championships | Skipper | B | 6 | 4.2 | 0.26 |
| MASSA Team Race Championship (Baker Qualifier) | Skipper | TR | 21 | 14% | — |
| MASSA 2019 Spring Silver Fleet Championship | Skipper | B | 7 | 3.7 | 1.23 |
| Christchurch Spring Intersectional Kick Off | Skipper | A | 20 | 12.6 | -0.13 |
| Fall 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| NYISA-SE Team Race District Championship Qualifier | Skipper | TR | 8 | 62% | — |
| NYISA-SE Fleet Champs | Skipper | B | 7 | 1.7 | 2.27 |
| MASSA Fall SILVER Fleet Champs | Skipper | B | 10 | 5.7 | 1.69 |
| 2018 MASSA Fall Team Race Championship | Skipper | TR | 6 | 50% | — |
| League | Name | School | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| ISSA | Jack Crager |  Fairfield Ludlowe High School |
'20 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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