| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Rye High School | Garnets | 6–0 |
| 2 |  |
The Stony Brook School | Bears | 4–2 |
| 3 |  |
Rye Country Day School | Wildcats | 1–5 |
| 4 |  |
Mamaroneck High School | Tigers | 1–5 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 6,070 team race matches sailed before 2019-04-11, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 9 of 12 matches (75%) with a log-loss of 0.607 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went poorly for the forecast. Orderliness −1.09 ± 0.59: an upset-heavy event, more orderly than 5% of high school team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
| Place | School | Pred. | Strength | Boats (skipper / crew, boat value) | Pred. win % | Record | vs forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rye High School Garnets | 1 | 6.50 | Vanessa Lahrkamp / Van Der Voort Elizabeth Michelle Lahrkamp / Kim Hahnbie 2.27 4–0 Matthew Wallace / Madeline Saffer 1.67 4–0 Michelle Lahrkamp / Van Der Voort Constantyn 2.43 2–0 Quirke Jacqueline / Madeline Saffer 2–0 | 88% | 6–0 (100%) | +0.7 |
| 2 | The Stony Brook School Bears | 3 | 3.27 school −0.18 | Thomas Derose / Margaret Hunt 1.37 Jack Crager / Ella Simmons 1.47 Will Meitz / Isabella Seminario 0.56 | 33% | 4–2 (67%) | +2.0 |
| 3 | Rye Country Day School Wildcats | 4 | 2.07 school −0.11 | Jaume Pujadas / Alexa Shea 1.07 Josie Yeager / Grant Halpern 0.32 Tyler Gilman / Andrew Lemley 0.63 | 14% | 1–5 (17%) | +0.2 |
| 4 | Mamaroneck High School Tigers | 2 | 5.11 school +0.28 | Lizzy Kaplan / Lily Donnelly 1.56 Wyatt Bischoff / Clara Hewson Charlie Roseberry / Natalie Manley | 66% | 1–5 (17%) | −2.9 |
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rye High School | 6.50 | 9.50 | 6–0 | 5.3 | ≥+3.00 | 1.0 | 45% |
| 2 | The Stony Brook School | 3.27 | 5.91 | 4–2 | 2.0 | +2.65 | 3.1 | 5% |
| 3 | Rye Country Day School | 2.07 | 2.43 | 1–5 | 0.8 | +0.36 | 0.0 | 60% |
| 4 | Mamaroneck High School | 5.11 | 1.14 | 1–5 | 3.9 | −3.97 | 6.5 | >99% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thomas Derose | The Stony Brook School | 1.37 | 4.02 | 4–2 | 2.0 | +2.65 | 3.1 | 5% |
| Will Meitz | The Stony Brook School | 0.56 | 3.21 | 4–2 | 2.0 | +2.65 | 3.1 | 5% |
| Jaume Pujadas | Rye Country Day School | 1.07 | 1.43 | 1–5 | 0.8 | +0.36 | 0.0 | 60% |
| Josie Yeager | Rye Country Day School | 0.32 | 0.68 | 1–5 | 0.8 | +0.36 | 0.0 | 60% |
| Tyler Gilman | Rye Country Day School | 0.63 | 0.99 | 1–5 | 0.8 | +0.36 | 0.0 | 60% |
| Lizzy Kaplan | Mamaroneck High School | 1.56 | -2.41 | 1–5 | 3.9 | −3.97 | 6.5 | >99% |
| Wyatt Bischoff | Mamaroneck High School | 1.70 | -2.27 | 1–5 | 3.9 | −3.97 | 6.5 | >99% |
| Charlie Roseberry | Mamaroneck High School | 1.36 | -2.60 | 1–5 | 3.9 | −3.97 | 6.5 | >99% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Garnets | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Bears | 4-5-6 |
| 2 | |
Wildcats | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Tigers | 4-5-6 |
| 3 | |
Garnets | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Wildcats | 4-5-6 |
| 4 | |
Bears | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Tigers | 4-5-6 |
| 5 | |
Bears | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Wildcats | 4-5-6 |
| 6 | |
Garnets | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Tigers | 4-5-6 |
| 7 | |
Garnets | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Wildcats | 4-5-6 |
| 8 | |
Bears | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Tigers | 4-5-6 |
| 9 | |
Bears | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Wildcats | 4-5-6 |
| 10 | |
Garnets | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Tigers | 4-5-6 |
| 11 | |
Garnets | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Bears | 4-5-6 |
| 12 | |
Tigers | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Wildcats | 3-5-6 |
| School | Team | Skippers | Crew | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Rye High School | Garnets | Lahrkamp Vanessa '22 Matthew Wallace '21 Michelle Lahrkamp '19 Quirke Jacqueline '21 |
Van Der Voort Elizabeth '21 Madeline Saffer '20 Kim Hahnbie '20 Van Der Voort Constantyn '19 |
|
The Stony Brook School | Bears | Jack Crager '20 Thomas Derose '19 Will Meitz '19 |
Ella Simmons '20 Margaret Hunt '19 Isabella Seminario '22 |
|
Rye Country Day School | Wildcats | Jaume Pujadas '20 Josie Yeager '20 Tyler Gilman '20 |
Alexa Shea '22 Grant Halpern '22 Andrew Lemley '22 |
|
Mamaroneck High School | Tigers | Charlie Roseberry '20 Lizzy Kaplan '19 Wyatt Bischoff '21 |
Natalie Manley '20 Lily Donnelly '21 Clara Hewson '20 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.06 means a rating gap counts about 5% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
