Rye High School '22
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3.10 (fleet 4.99) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.01 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 47–29 (62%) as crew 8–0 (100%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2022 | 1 | 3–9 | — |
| Fall 2021 | 1 | 7–2 | — |
| Spring 2021 | 2 | 17–11 | — |
| Spring 2019 | 2 | 20–7 | — |
| Fall 2018 | 1 | — | 8–0 |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 7 graded regattas (84 matches) the record is 55–29 against 51.7 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+3.3). 1 regatta clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 1 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 11 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-04-30 | MASSA 2022 Team Race Championship | skipper | — | — | 3–9 | 5.2 | −1.62 | 1.9 | 98% |
| 2021-10-23 | NYISA-SE Team Race Championship | skipper | — | — | 7–2 | 6.6 | +0.37 | 0.1 | 54% |
| 2021-04-24 | MASSA Baker Team Race Qualifiers | skipper | — | — | 13–11 | 14.0 | −0.28 | 0.2 | 76% |
| 2021-04-10 | NYISA-SE Team Race Qualifer | skipper | — | — | 4–0 | 1.2 | ≥+3.00 | 5.6 | 1% |
| 2019-04-27 | MASSA Team Race Championship (Baker Qualifier) | skipper | — | — | 14–7 | 12.1 | +0.81 | 0.9 | 21% |
| 2019-04-11 | NYISA-SE Team Race | skipper | — | — | 6–0 | 5.3 | ≥+3.00 | 1.0 | 45% |
| 2018-10-13 | NYISA-SE Team Race District Championship Qualifier | crew | — | — | 8–0 | 7.2 | ≥+3.00 | 1.1 | 42% |
| League | Name | School | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| ICSA | Vanessa Lahrkamp |  Stanford University |
'26 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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