| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Rye High School | Garnets | 4–0 |
| 2 |  |
The Stony Brook School | Bears | 0–4 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 7,005 team race matches sailed before 2021-04-10, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 0 of 4 matches (0%) with a log-loss of 1.167 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went poorly for the forecast. vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
| Place | School | Pred. | Strength | Boats (skipper / crew, boat value) | Pred. win % | Record | vs forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rye High School Garnets | 2 | 4.28 school +0.24 | Vanessa Lahrkamp / Emmerson Jack 2.48 Quirke Declan / Sacristan Clara 0.71 Saffer Lillian / Nusbaum Felix | 31% | 4–0 (100%) | +2.8 |
| 2 | The Stony Brook School Bears | 1 | 5.30 home +-0.01 | Steven Hardee / Mairead Reitzel 1.93 Lilly Jette / Harry Fredericks 1.42 Gavin Hudson / Imogene Dunn | 69% | 0–4 (0%) | −2.8 |
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rye High School | 4.28 | 7.28 | 4–0 | 1.2 | ≥+3.00 | 5.6 | 1% |
| 2 | The Stony Brook School | 5.30 | 2.30 | 0–4 | 2.8 | ≤−3.00 | 5.6 | >99% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quirke Declan | Rye High School | 0.71 | 3.71 | 4–0 | 1.2 | ≥+3.00 | 5.6 | 1% |
| Saffer Lillian | Rye High School | 0.73 | 3.73 | 4–0 | 1.2 | ≥+3.00 | 5.6 | 1% |
| Lilly Jette | The Stony Brook School | 1.42 | -1.58 | 0–4 | 2.8 | ≤−3.00 | 5.6 | >99% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| Rd | # | Winner | Loser | P(winner) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Rye High School | The Stony Brook School | 30% | upset |
| 2 | 2 | Rye High School | The Stony Brook School | 31% | upset |
| 3 | 3 | Rye High School | The Stony Brook School | 31% | upset |
| 4 | 4 | Rye High School | The Stony Brook School | 32% | upset |
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Garnets | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Bears | 3-5-6 |
| 2 | |
Garnets | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Bears | 1-5-6 |
| 3 | |
Garnets | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Bears | 3-4-5 |
| 4 | |
Garnets | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Bears | 2-4-6 |
| School | Team | Skippers | Crew | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Rye High School | Garnets | Lahrkamp Vanessa '22 Quirke Declan '22 Saffer Lillian '23 |
Emmerson Jack '23 Sacristan Clara '22 Nusbaum Felix '21 |
|
The Stony Brook School | Bears | Gavin Hudson '24 Lilly Jette '21 Steven Hardee '22 |
Imogene Dunn '21 Harry Fredericks '22 Mairead Reitzel '24 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.01 means a rating gap counts about 1% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
