The Stony Brook School '22
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.43 (fleet 3.96) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.02 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 44–35 (56%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2022 | 1 | 5–9 | — |
| Fall 2021 | 2 | 13–14 | — |
| Spring 2021 | 2 | 14–7 | — |
| Fall 2019 | 2 | 12–5 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 7 graded regattas (79 matches) the record is 44–35 against 45.7 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−1.7). 1 regatta clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 2 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 8 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-04-30 | MASSA 2022 Team Race Championship | skipper | 2.55 | 2.34 | 5–9 | 5.4 | −0.22 | 0.0 | 72% |
| 2021-11-06 | MASSA Gold Fall Team Championship | skipper | 2.44 | 2.12 | 6–12 | 6.7 | −0.32 | 0.1 | 76% |
| 2021-10-23 | NYISA-SE Team Race Championship | skipper | 2.31 | 2.88 | 7–2 | 6.4 | +0.58 | 0.2 | 47% |
| 2021-04-24 | MASSA Silver Team Championship | skipper | 2.21 | 3.33 | 14–3 | 11.5 | +1.12 | 1.5 | 14% |
| 2021-04-10 | NYISA-SE Team Race Qualifer | skipper | 1.93 | -1.07 | 0–4 | 2.8 | ≤−3.00 | 5.6 | >99% |
| 2019-11-02 | MASSA Team Race Championship | skipper | 2.08 | 0.88 | 3–4 | 4.1 | −1.20 | 0.8 | 94% |
| 2019-09-28 | NYISA-SE Fall Team Race Champs | skipper | 1.86 | 2.17 | 9–1 | 8.8 | +0.31 | 0.0 | 66% |
| League | Name | School | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| ICSA | Steven Hardee |  University of Miami |
'26 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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