| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Severn School | Admirals | 17–1 |
| 2 |  |
Christchurch School | Seahorses | 13–5 |
| 3 |  |
Norfolk Collegiate School | Oaks | 13–5 |
| 4 |  |
Norfolk Academy | Bulldogs | 10–8 |
| 5 |  |
The Stony Brook School | Bears | 6–12 |
| 6 |  |
Archbishop Spalding | Cavaliers | 4–14 |
| 7 |  |
Leonardtown High School | Raiders | 0–18 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 7,909 team race matches sailed before 2021-11-06, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 55 of 63 matches (87%) with a log-loss of 0.303 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. Orderliness +0.45 ± 0.28: an orderly event, more orderly than 73% of high school team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Norfolk Collegiate School | 6.81 | 8.05 | 13–5 | 10.2 | +1.24 | 1.9 | 9% |
| 1 | Severn School | 9.27 | 9.94 | 17–1 | 16.4 | +0.68 | 0.2 | 51% |
| 2 | Christchurch School | 7.38 | 7.91 | 13–5 | 11.9 | +0.52 | 0.3 | 36% |
| 4 | Norfolk Academy | 6.87 | 6.74 | 10–8 | 10.3 | −0.13 | 0.0 | 68% |
| 5 | The Stony Brook School | 5.66 | 5.34 | 6–12 | 6.7 | −0.32 | 0.1 | 76% |
| 6 | Archbishop Spalding | 5.45 | 4.35 | 4–14 | 6.1 | −1.10 | 1.3 | 95% |
| 7 | Leonardtown High School | 3.34 | 0.34 | 0–18 | 1.4 | ≤−3.00 | 1.9 | >99% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maggie Campbell | Norfolk Collegiate School | 2.45 | 3.68 | 13–5 | 10.2 | +1.24 | 1.9 | 9% |
| Carlos Bermudez De Castro Castro | Christchurch School | 2.97 | 3.49 | 13–5 | 11.9 | +0.52 | 0.3 | 36% |
| Audrey Permenter | Norfolk Academy | 1.81 | 1.68 | 10–8 | 10.3 | −0.13 | 0.0 | 68% |
| Harry Fredericks | The Stony Brook School | 1.03 | 0.71 | 6–12 | 6.7 | −0.32 | 0.1 | 76% |
| Anna Groszkowski | Archbishop Spalding | 1.50 | 0.40 | 4–14 | 6.1 | −1.10 | 1.3 | 95% |
| Ava Farley | Archbishop Spalding | 1.86 | 0.76 | 4–14 | 6.1 | −1.10 | 1.3 | 95% |
| Kyle Engel | Leonardtown High School | 1.12 | -1.88 | 0–6 | 0.4 | ≤−3.00 | 0.5 | >99% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Oaks | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Admirals | 1-5-6 |
| 2 | |
Cavaliers | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Raiders | 3-4-6 |
| 3 | |
Seahorses | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Bears | 3-4-6 |
| 4 | |
Admirals | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Bulldogs | 4-5-6 |
| 5 | |
Oaks | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Cavaliers | 4-5-6 |
| 6 | |
Bears | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Raiders | 3-4-6 |
| 7 | |
Bulldogs | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Seahorses | 3-4-5 |
| 8 | |
Admirals | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Cavaliers | 3-5-6 |
| 9 | |
Oaks | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Bears | 4-5-6 |
| 10 | |
Seahorses | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Raiders | 2-3-6 |
| 11 | |
Bulldogs | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Cavaliers | 2-4-5 |
| 12 | |
Admirals | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Bears | 3-4-6 |
| 13 | |
Seahorses | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Oaks | 2-5-6 |
| 14 | |
Bulldogs | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Raiders | 2-5-6 |
| 15 | |
Cavaliers | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Bears | 2-4-5 |
| 16 | |
Admirals | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Seahorses | 4-5-6 |
| 17 | |
Oaks | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Raiders | 3-5-6 |
| 18 | |
Bulldogs | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Bears | 2-4-6 |
| 19 | |
Seahorses | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Cavaliers | 3-4-6 |
| 20 | |
Admirals | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Raiders | 3-5-6 |
| 21 | |
Oaks | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Bulldogs | 3-5-6 |
| 22 | |
Admirals | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Raiders | 4-5-6 |
| 23 | |
Oaks | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Bulldogs | 3-4-6 |
| 24 | |
Bears | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Cavaliers | 2-5-6 |
| 25 | |
Seahorses | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Raiders | 3-4-6 |
| 26 | |
Admirals | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Bulldogs | 3-5-6 |
| 27 | |
Oaks | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Cavaliers | 2-5-6 |
| 28 | |
Seahorses | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Bears | 3-5-6 |
| 29 | |
Bulldogs | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Raiders | 3-4-5 |
| 30 | |
Admirals | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Cavaliers | 3-4-5 |
| 31 | |
Oaks | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Bears | 3-5-6 |
| 32 | |
Bulldogs | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Seahorses | 3-4-5 |
| 33 | |
Cavaliers | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Raiders | 3-4-6 |
| 34 | |
Admirals | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Bears | 3-5-6 |
| 35 | |
Seahorses | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Oaks | 2-4-5 |
| 36 | |
Bulldogs | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Cavaliers | 1-4-6 |
| 37 | |
Bears | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Raiders | 3-5-6 |
| 38 | |
Admirals | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Oaks | 3-4-6 |
| 39 | |
Seahorses | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Cavaliers | 2-4-6 |
| 40 | |
Bears | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Bulldogs | 1-5-6 |
| 41 | |
Oaks | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Raiders | 4-5-6 |
| 42 | |
Admirals | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Seahorses | 1-5-6 |
| 43 | |
Bulldogs | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Bears | 2-4-6 |
| 44 | |
Admirals | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Raiders | 4-5-6 |
| 45 | |
Seahorses | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Oaks | 2-5-6 |
| 46 | |
Bears | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Cavaliers | 2-5-6 |
| 47 | |
Bulldogs | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Raiders | 4-5-6 |
| 48 | |
Admirals | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Seahorses | 2-5-6 |
| 49 | |
Oaks | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Cavaliers | 2-5-6 |
| 50 | |
Bears | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Raiders | 4-5-6 |
| 51 | |
Seahorses | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Bulldogs | 4-5-6 |
| 52 | |
Admirals | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Oaks | 4-5-6 |
| 53 | |
Cavaliers | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Raiders | 3-5-6 |
| 54 | |
Seahorses | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Bears | 3-4-5 |
| 55 | |
Oaks | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Bulldogs | 2-4-6 |
| 56 | |
Admirals | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Cavaliers | 3-4-5 |
| 57 | |
Seahorses | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Raiders | 3-4-5 |
| 58 | |
Oaks | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Bears | 2-4-5 |
| 59 | |
Admirals | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Bulldogs | 2-5-6 |
| 60 | |
Seahorses | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Cavaliers | 3-4-5 |
| 61 | |
Oaks | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Raiders | 4-5-6 |
| 62 | |
Admirals | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Bears | 4-5-6 |
| 63 | |
Bulldogs | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Cavaliers | 3-5-6 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.04 means a rating gap counts about 3% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
