Archbishop Spalding '22
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.26 (fleet 2.07) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.01 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 27–55 (33%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2022 | 1 | 2–0 | — |
| Fall 2021 | 2 | 10–20 | — |
| Spring 2021 | 2 | 7–8 | — |
| Fall 2019 | 3 | 4–17 | — |
| Spring 2019 | 2 | 4–10 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 9 graded regattas (80 matches) the record is 25–55 against 29.3 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−4.3). 1 regatta clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 5 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 4 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021-11-06 | MASSA Gold Fall Team Championship | skipper | 1.50 | 0.40 | 4–14 | 6.1 | −1.10 | 1.3 | 95% |
| 2021-10-30 | MDISA TR Fall Championship | skipper | 1.39 | 0.83 | 6–6 | 6.6 | −0.57 | 0.2 | 84% |
| 2021-04-24 | MASSA Baker Team Race Qualifiers | skipper | 1.38 | 0.65 | 4–7 | 4.8 | −0.73 | 0.3 | 87% |
| 2021-04-17 | MDISA Team Race Qualifier | skipper | 1.33 | 1.68 | 3–1 | 2.8 | +0.35 | 0.0 | 65% |
| 2019-10-26 | MDISA Team Qualifier | skipper | 0.99 | 0.99 | 1–4 | 1.0 | −0.00 | 0.0 | 70% |
| 2019-10-05 | MDISA Team Race Series 2 | skipper | 0.99 | -0.66 | 1–9 | 2.5 | −1.65 | 1.3 | 96% |
| 2019-09-15 | MDISA Team Race 1 | skipper | 0.97 | 0.53 | 2–4 | 2.3 | −0.45 | 0.1 | 81% |
| 2019-04-06 | MDISA Team Race Qualifier | skipper | 0.83 | 2.37 | 3–4 | 1.7 | +1.54 | 1.1 | 20% |
| 2019-03-17 | MDISA Team Race | skipper | 0.70 | 0.28 | 1–6 | 1.3 | −0.42 | 0.1 | 78% |
| League | Name | School | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| ICSA | Anna Groszkowski |  University of Virginia |
'26 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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