SSPP Varsity Fleet Race

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Severn School Severn School Admirals 11 4 15
2 Leonardtown High School Leonardtown High School Raiders 18 17 35
3 Bethesda - Chevy Chase HS Bethesda - Chevy Chase HS Battlin' Baron 20 15 35
4 Bishop O'Connell High School Bishop O'Connell High School Knights 15 27 42
5 Great Mills High School Great Mills High School Hornets 18 38 56
6 Broadneck High School Broadneck High School Bruins 29 29 58
7 Yorktown High School Yorktown High School Patriots 22 38 60
8 Walt Whitman High School Walt Whitman High School Varsity 51 21 72
9 Archbishop Spalding Archbishop Spalding Cavaliers 50 25 75
10 Key School Key School Zags 19 60 79
11 Indian Creek School Indian Creek School Eagles 49 32 81
12 Georgetown Day School Georgetown Day School Georgetown Day 42 41 83
13 Towson High School Towson High School Generals 37 49 86
14 Sts. Peter & Paul Sts. Peter & Paul Sabres 49 38 87
15 South River High School South River High School Seahawks 61 64 125
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 TOT Sailors
Severn School Severn School Admirals 1 2 1 7 11 Madeline Hawkins '20
Abby Tindall '19
Bishop O'Connell High School Bishop O'Connell High School Knights 5 5 3 2 15 Peter Lobaugh '20
Hannah Leggett '20
Leonardtown High School Leonardtown High School Raiders 3 7 2 6 18 Daniel Unangst '20
Emily Williams '20
Great Mills High School Great Mills High School Hornets 4 4 6 4 18 Olivia Sowa '20
Braedon Myers '20
Key School Key School Zags 2 3 5 9 19 Charles Anderson '21
Molly Roden '22
Bethesda - Chevy Chase HS Bethesda - Chevy Chase HS Battlin' Baron 9 6 4 1 20 Nick Budington '21 [1-4]
C. Augie Spendley '19 [1-2]
Liam Gronda '21 [3-4]
Yorktown High School Yorktown High School Patriots 7 1 11 3 22 Colman Schofield '21
Linnea Forsberg '21
Broadneck High School Broadneck High School Bruins 8 8 8 5 29 Emma Snead '19
Will Sizemore '20
Towson High School Towson High School Generals 6 11 7 13 37 Will Dryer '20
Finn Parkinson '21
Georgetown Day School Georgetown Day School Georgetown Day 12 10 9 11 42 David Grace '19
Dexter Mueller '19
Indian Creek School Indian Creek School Eagles 11 12 DNF 10 49 James Corckran '19
Liam Lonergan '19
Sts. Peter & Paul Sts. Peter & Paul Sabres DNF 9 12 12 49 Matthew Collinson '20 [1-4]
Joshua Sambrano '22 [1]
Sarah Rosa '20 [2-4]
Archbishop Spalding Archbishop Spalding Cavaliers DNF DNS 10 8 50 Anna Groszkowski '22
Ty Ryan '22
Walt Whitman High School Walt Whitman High School Varsity 10 14 13 14 51 Henry Haddon '20
Jackson Barlow '20
South River High School South River High School Seahawks DNF 13 DNS DNS 61 Hunter Ward '20
Vaughan Hood '20
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 TOT Sailors
Severn School Severn School Admirals 1 1 1 1 4 Owen Hennessey '21
Rees Tindall '21
Bethesda - Chevy Chase HS Bethesda - Chevy Chase HS Battlin' Baron 2 2 2 9 15 Friso Grolleman '20
Anna Grolleman '22
Leonardtown High School Leonardtown High School Raiders 5 6 4 2 17 Audrey Commerford '21
Makenna Labor '21
Walt Whitman High School Walt Whitman High School Varsity 4 3 3 11 21 Arin Bekem '22
Deniz Ayhan '24
Archbishop Spalding Archbishop Spalding Cavaliers 3 4 8 10 25 Ava Farley '22
Caroline Kelly '19
Bishop O'Connell High School Bishop O'Connell High School Knights 9 9 5 4 27 Gabe Paier '21
Nick Bus '21
Broadneck High School Broadneck High School Bruins 8 12 6 3 29 Morgan Carew '21
Josh Becker '20
Indian Creek School Indian Creek School Eagles 11 5 11 5 32 Ally Snead '19
Ted Ginsburg '19
Sts. Peter & Paul Sts. Peter & Paul Sabres 6 10 10 12 38 Ole Singelstad '21
Mary Nolan '21
Yorktown High School Yorktown High School Patriots 10 8 12 8 38 Aidan Young '20
Natalie Aramendia '21
Great Mills High School Great Mills High School Hornets DNS 7 9 6 38 Lucy Paskoff '20
Lochlann Ludwig '21
Georgetown Day School Georgetown Day School Georgetown Day DNS 11 7 7 41 Sam Rifkind-Brown '21
Phoebe Pressler '21
Towson High School Towson High School Generals 7 DNS 13 13 49 Reese Meyers '23
Thomas Krulak '22
Key School Key School Zags 12 DNF DNS DNS 60 Griffin Dugan '21
Emma Kissel '22
South River High School South River High School Seahawks DNS DNS DNS DNS 64 Rachel O'Neil '20
Laurel Bollinger '20
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.060+0.06
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2016 (22 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A
Archbishop SpaldingArchbishop Spalding Cavaliers1133
Bethesda - Chevy Chase HSBethesda - Chevy Chase HS Battlin' Baron2244
Bishop O'Connell High SchoolBishop O'Connell High School Knights3355
Broadneck High SchoolBroadneck High School Bruins4466
Georgetown Day SchoolGeorgetown Day School Georgetown Day5577
Great Mills High SchoolGreat Mills High School Hornets6688
Indian Creek SchoolIndian Creek School Eagles7799
Key SchoolKey School Zags881010
Leonardtown High SchoolLeonardtown High School Raiders991111
Sts. Peter & PaulSts. Peter & Paul Sabres12121414
Severn SchoolSevern School Admirals10101212
South River High SchoolSouth River High School Seahawks11111313
Towson High SchoolTowson High School Generals13131515
Walt Whitman High SchoolWalt Whitman High School Varsity141411
Yorktown High SchoolYorktown High School Patriots151522

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B
Archbishop SpaldingArchbishop Spalding Cavaliers2244
Bethesda - Chevy Chase HSBethesda - Chevy Chase HS Battlin' Baron3355
Bishop O'Connell High SchoolBishop O'Connell High School Knights4466
Broadneck High SchoolBroadneck High School Bruins5577
Georgetown Day SchoolGeorgetown Day School Georgetown Day6688
Great Mills High SchoolGreat Mills High School Hornets7799
Indian Creek SchoolIndian Creek School Eagles881010
Key SchoolKey School Zags991111
Leonardtown High SchoolLeonardtown High School Raiders10101212
Sts. Peter & PaulSts. Peter & Paul Sabres13131515
Severn SchoolSevern School Admirals11111313
South River High SchoolSouth River High School Seahawks12121414
Towson High SchoolTowson High School Generals141411
Walt Whitman High SchoolWalt Whitman High School Varsity151522
Yorktown High SchoolYorktown High School Patriots1133
School / Team SkipperCrew
Archbishop Spalding Archbishop Spalding Anna Groszkowski '22 Ty Ryan '22
Cavaliers Ava Farley '22 Caroline Kelly '19
Bethesda - Chevy Chase HS Bethesda - Chevy Chase HS Nick Budington '21 [1-4] C. Augie Spendley '19 [1-2]
Liam Gronda '21 [3-4]
Battlin' Baron Friso Grolleman '20 Anna Grolleman '22
Bishop O'Connell High School Bishop O'Connell High School Peter Lobaugh '20 Hannah Leggett '20
Knights Gabe Paier '21 Nick Bus '21
Broadneck High School Broadneck High School Emma Snead '19 Will Sizemore '20
Bruins Morgan Carew '21 Josh Becker '20
Georgetown Day School Georgetown Day School David Grace '19 Dexter Mueller '19
Georgetown Day Sam Rifkind-Brown '21 Phoebe Pressler '21
Great Mills High School Great Mills High School Olivia Sowa '20 Braedon Myers '20
Hornets Lucy Paskoff '20 Lochlann Ludwig '21
Indian Creek School Indian Creek School James Corckran '19 Liam Lonergan '19
Eagles Ally Snead '19 Ted Ginsburg '19
Key School Key School Charles Anderson '21 Molly Roden '22
Zags Griffin Dugan '21 Emma Kissel '22
Leonardtown High School Leonardtown High School Daniel Unangst '20 Emily Williams '20
Raiders Audrey Commerford '21 Makenna Labor '21
Severn School Severn School Madeline Hawkins '20 Abby Tindall '19
Admirals Owen Hennessey '21 Rees Tindall '21
South River High School South River High School Hunter Ward '20 Vaughan Hood '20
Seahawks Rachel O'Neil '20 Laurel Bollinger '20
Sts. Peter & Paul Sts. Peter & Paul Matthew Collinson '20 [1-4] Joshua Sambrano '22 [1]
Sarah Rosa '20 [2-4]
Sabres Ole Singelstad '21 Mary Nolan '21
Towson High School Towson High School Will Dryer '20 Finn Parkinson '21
Generals Reese Meyers '23 Thomas Krulak '22
Walt Whitman High School Walt Whitman High School Henry Haddon '20 Jackson Barlow '20
Varsity Arin Bekem '22 Deniz Ayhan '24
Yorktown High School Yorktown High School Colman Schofield '21 Linnea Forsberg '21
Patriots Aidan Young '20 Natalie Aramendia '21

Conditions — 03/16/2019 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 42%  ·  Pressure 1019.7 hPa

Temperature

48°F
↑ 51°F   ↓ 46°F
Feels like 38°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
12.6 kn
avg  ·  max 15.1 kn
Gusts to 30.9 kn
From WNW (302°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover26% Sunshine10.7 hrs Humidity42% Pressure1019.7 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: NW 14 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Saints Peter & Paul: a strongly favourites’ day (+0.30)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment −0.01 (an ordinary fleet) · combined forecast +0.29
Actual: about typical, within noise (−0.13 ± 0.16)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.30 means a rating gap counts about 26% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Saints Peter & Paul by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 3 labelled days at Saints Peter & Paul, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →