| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Bethesda - Chevy Chase HS | Battlin' Baron | 8–2 |
| 2 |  |
Severn School | Admirals | 8–2 |
| 3 |  |
Leonardtown High School | Raiders | 7–3 |
| 4 |  |
Great Mills High School | Hornets | 4–6 |
| 5 |  |
Broadneck High School | Bruins | 2–8 |
| 6 |  |
Archbishop Spalding | Cavaliers | 1–9 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 6,792 team race matches sailed before 2019-10-05, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 24 of 30 matches (80%) with a log-loss of 0.418 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. Orderliness +0.09 ± 0.40: a typical event, more orderly than 46% of high school team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Leonardtown High School | 4.90 | 5.85 | 7–3 | 5.7 | +0.96 | 0.7 | 28% |
| 1 | Bethesda - Chevy Chase HS | 5.61 | 6.53 | 8–2 | 7.0 | +0.93 | 0.5 | 35% |
| 4 | Great Mills High School | 3.92 | 3.92 | 4–6 | 4.0 | +0.00 | 0.0 | 64% |
| 5 | Broadneck High School | 2.80 | 2.72 | 2–8 | 2.1 | −0.08 | 0.0 | 67% |
| 2 | Severn School | 6.78 | 6.10 | 8–2 | 8.7 | −0.68 | 0.3 | 87% |
| 6 | Archbishop Spalding | 3.09 | 1.44 | 1–9 | 2.5 | −1.65 | 1.3 | 96% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Audrey Commerford | Leonardtown High School | 1.27 | 2.23 | 7–3 | 5.7 | +0.96 | 0.7 | 28% |
| Friso Grolleman | Bethesda - Chevy Chase HS | 1.24 | 2.16 | 8–2 | 7.0 | +0.93 | 0.5 | 35% |
| Jon Weed | Broadneck High School | 1.14 | 1.07 | 2–8 | 2.1 | −0.08 | 0.0 | 67% |
| Caitlin Rosner | Broadneck High School | 0.10 | 0.02 | 2–8 | 2.1 | −0.08 | 0.0 | 67% |
| Teddy Cromwell | Severn School | 2.41 | 1.73 | 8–2 | 8.7 | −0.68 | 0.3 | 87% |
| Anna Groszkowski | Archbishop Spalding | 0.99 | -0.66 | 1–9 | 2.5 | −1.65 | 1.3 | 96% |
| Ava Farley | Archbishop Spalding | 1.14 | -0.51 | 1–9 | 2.5 | −1.65 | 1.3 | 96% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Raiders | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Hornets | 1-5-6 |
| 2 | |
Battlin' Baron | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Cavaliers | 4-5-6 |
| 3 | |
Admirals | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Bruins | 3-5-6 |
| 4 | |
Battlin' Baron | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Raiders | 2-5-6 DNS |
| 5 | |
Bruins | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Hornets | 3-4-5 |
| 6 | |
Admirals | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Cavaliers | 3-4-6 |
| 7 | |
Battlin' Baron | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Bruins | 4-5-6 |
| 8 | |
Raiders | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Cavaliers | 3-5-6 |
| 9 | |
Admirals | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Hornets | 3-4-6 |
| 10 | |
Bruins | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Cavaliers | 3-4-6 |
| 11 | |
Battlin' Baron | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Hornets | 1-4-6 |
| 12 | |
Admirals | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Raiders | 3-4-5 |
| 13 | |
Hornets | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Cavaliers | 2-4-5 |
| 14 | |
Raiders | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Bruins | 4-5-6 |
| 15 | |
Battlin' Baron | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Admirals | 2-4-6 |
| 16 | |
Cavaliers | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Bruins | 3-4-6 |
| 17 | |
Hornets | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Battlin' Baron | 2-3-6 |
| 18 | |
Admirals | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Raiders | 4-5-6 |
| 19 | |
Hornets | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Cavaliers | 3-4-5 |
| 20 | |
Admirals | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Bruins | 4-5-6 |
| 21 | |
Raiders | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Battlin' Baron | 3-4-6 |
| 22 | |
Admirals | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Hornets | 3-5-6 |
| 23 | |
Battlin' Baron | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Cavaliers | 3-5-6 |
| 24 | |
Raiders | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Bruins | 3-4-5 |
| 25 | |
Battlin' Baron | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Admirals | 3-4-6 |
| 26 | |
Hornets | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Bruins | 1-5-6 |
| 27 | |
Raiders | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Cavaliers | 4-5-6 |
| 28 | |
Battlin' Baron | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Bruins | 3-4-5 |
| 29 | |
Admirals | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Cavaliers | 4-5-6 |
| 30 | |
Raiders | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Hornets | 4-5-6 |
| School | Team | Skippers | Crew | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Bethesda - Chevy Chase HS | Battlin' Baron | Friso Grolleman '20 Matt Budington '21 Nick Budington '21 |
Coleman Schofield '21 Anna Grolleman '22 Liam Gronda '21 |
|
Severn School | Admirals | Patrick Dolan '21 Teddy Cromwell '20 Zander King '21 |
Alex Brenia '22 Chase Hilliard '21 Hayden Lamb '20 |
|
Leonardtown High School | Raiders | Audrey Commerford '21 Daniel Unangst '20 Tyler Egeli '20 |
Makenna Labor '21 Kyle Edwards '20 Steven Twemlow '20 Hannah Davis '20 |
|
Great Mills High School | Hornets | Lochlann Ludwig '21 Lucy Paskoff '20 Olivia Sowa '20 |
Clare Greenwell '22 Jonathan Stevenson '23 Daniel Aaron '23 Braedon Myers '20 |
|
Broadneck High School | Bruins | Caitlin Rosner '21 Jon Weed '22 Morgan Carew '21 |
Will Harding '22 Lily Newman '21 Lucien Parker '20 |
|
Archbishop Spalding | Cavaliers | Anna Groszkowski '22 Ava Farley '22 Griffin Richardson '21 |
Ty Ryan '22 Joaquin Marquez '21 Claire Woynerowski '22 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.02 means a rating gap counts about 2% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
