Severn School '20
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.29 (fleet 3.73) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.01 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 12–7 (63%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2020 | 1 | 1–5 | — |
| Fall 2019 | 1 | 8–2 | — |
| Fall 2018 | 1 | 3–0 | — |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 3 graded regattas (19 matches) the record is 12–7 against 13.9 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−1.9). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 3 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 2 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020-03-07 | Severn School (MDISA) Team Race | skipper | 2.49 | 0.51 | 1–5 | 2.4 | −1.98 | 1.5 | 98% |
| 2019-10-05 | MDISA Team Race Series 2 | skipper | 2.41 | 1.73 | 8–2 | 8.7 | −0.68 | 0.3 | 87% |
| 2018-09-22 | BCSC Fall 2018 JV Team Race | skipper | 2.08 | 5.08 | 3–0 | 2.9 | ≥+3.00 | 0.2 | 85% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2020 Team page Season | |||||
| Severn School (MDISA) Team Race | Skipper | TR | 8 | 38% | — |
| Fall 2019 Team page Season | |||||
| MDISA Team Race Series 2 | Skipper | TR | 10 | 80% | — |
| 2019 Fall Varsity Fleet Race 1 | Skipper | B | 8 | 1.6 | 3.69 |
| Spring 2019 Team page Season | |||||
| SSPP JV Regatta | Skipper | B | 6 | 1.8 | 3.29 |
| NERHS JV Regatta | Skipper | A | 5 | 1.2 | 4.89 |
| MDISA Kent Island JV Regatta | Skipper | A | 5 | 2.6 | 2.68 |
| Fall 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| SCC JV regatta | Skipper | A | 5 | 1.2 | 4.54 |
| MDISA JV Fleet Race | Skipper | A | 4 | 1.2 | 4.08 |
| Kent Island Fall JV #2 | Skipper | A | 4 | 1.0 | — |
| Fall MDISA JV Champs | Skipper | A | 4 | 1.2 | 2.06 |
| BCSC Fall 2018 JV Team Race | Skipper | TR | 6 | 100% | — |
| BCSC 2018 Fall JV | Skipper | A | 6 | 1.5 | 3.94 |
| Spring 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| SCC JV | Skipper | A | 4 | 1.8 | 3.49 |
| North East JV Regatta Spring 2018 | Skipper | A | 5 | 2.0 | 2.81 |
| JV Championship Spring 2018 | Skipper | A | 3 | 4.0 | 2.03 |
| EYC JV Spring Regatta | Skipper | A | 5 | 2.6 | 2.34 |
| BCSC JV #2 | Skipper | A | 3 | 6.3 | 0.11 |
| BCSC High School JV #1 Spring 2018 | Skipper | A | 5 | 1.0 | — |
| Fall 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| SSPP JV Regatta | Skipper | A | 4 | 3.0 | 2.36 |
| MDISA JV Championships at SSPP | Skipper | A | 5 | 1.4 | 4.01 |
| BCSC Fall High School #1 | Skipper | A | 7 | 2.4 | 1.39 |
| Spring 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| SCC Fleet Race - JV | Skipper | A | 4 | 2.0 | 1.78 |
| JV Championship | Skipper | A | 7 | 3.9 | 1.17 |
| Fall 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| JV Championship | Skipper | A | 7 | 4.0 | 1.18 |
| DC Sail JV 15 boat FR | Skipper | B | 5 | 4.2 | 1.16 |
| AYC/SSA Jr. Varsity Regatta | Skipper | A | 6 | 4.8 | 0.46 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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