BCSC JV #2

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 North East River High School North East River High School Road Warriors 10 13 23
2 Boys Latin Boys Latin Lakers 19 12 31
3 Great Mills High School Great Mills High School Hornets 20 12 32
4 St. Mary's High School (MD) St. Mary's High School (MD) Saints 19 23 42
5 Severn School Severn School Admirals 33 15 48
6 Indian Creek School Indian Creek School Eagles 23 35 58
7 Kent Island High School Kent Island High School Buccaneers 1 26 38 64
8 Annapolis High School Annapolis High School Panthers 37 27 64
9 Broadneck High School Broadneck High School Bruins 26 39 65
10 Towson High School Towson High School Generals 47 19 66
11 Kent Island High School Kent Island High School Buccaneers 2 31 43 74
12 Severna Park Severna Park Falcons 37 41 78
13 Archbishop Spalding Archbishop Spalding Cavaliers 37 47 84
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 TOT Sailors
North East River High School North East River High School Road Warriors 2 2 3 3 10 Iain Shand '19
Lauren O'Neill '20
St. Mary's High School (MD) St. Mary's High School (MD) Saints 4 5 4 6 19 Andrew Tollefson '22
Jessica Groblewski '21
Boys Latin Boys Latin Lakers 5 4 1 9 19 Blake Vogel '21
Helena Ware '18
Great Mills High School Great Mills High School Hornets 3 1 5 11 20 Nico Funya '18
Olivia Sowa '20
Indian Creek School Indian Creek School Eagles 1 3 11 8 23 Ally Snead '19
Adeline Mock '22
Broadneck High School Broadneck High School Bruins 6 8 10 2 26 Morgan Carew '21 [1-4]
Josh Becker '20 [1-2]
Caitlin Rosner '21 [3-4]
Kent Island High School Kent Island High School Buccaneers 1 9 9 7 1 26 Crispin Blamphin '18
Katie Norman '19
Kent Island High School Kent Island High School Buccaneers 2 8 12 6 5 31 Corbin Voorhes '21 [1-4]
Samuel Irizarray '21 [1-2]
Chase O'Malley '22 [3-4]
Severn School Severn School Admirals 11 6 2 DSQ 33 Teddy Cromwell '20
Hayden Lamb '20
Severna Park Severna Park Falcons 7 7 13 10 37 Connor Killeen '21 [1-4]
Janie Powell '21 [1-2]
Jack Alpert '21 [3-4]
Archbishop Spalding Archbishop Spalding Cavaliers 10 11 12 4 37 Griffin Richardson '21
Annapolis High School Annapolis High School Panthers 12 10 8 7 37 Cole Canuel '22
Towson High School Towson High School Generals 13 13 9 12 47 Connor Vogel '20
Michael Buscemi '19
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 TOT Sailors
Boys Latin Boys Latin Lakers 1 5 4 2 12 William Dryer '20
Hailey Austin '20
Great Mills High School Great Mills High School Hornets 2 2 2 6 12 Dale Vanmeter '19
Ryan Lacey '18
North East River High School North East River High School Road Warriors 3 3 6 1 13 Alex Walters '18
Elizabeth Cottage '21
Severn School Severn School Admirals 5 1 5 4 15 Zander King '21
Charlie Granitto '20
Towson High School Towson High School Generals 11 4 1 3 19 Ethan Rushlow '20 [1-4]
Conner Sciullo '21 [1-2]
Marina Dryer '21 [3-4]
St. Mary's High School (MD) St. Mary's High School (MD) Saints 6 9 3 5 23 Cole Wiegand '21 [1-4]
Lucy Duckett '21 [1-2]
Tyler Hughes '22 [3-4]
Annapolis High School Annapolis High School Panthers 4 7 7 9 27 Carter O'Neill '20 [1-2]
Josiah Chase '21 [3-4]
Isabella Fadullon '21 [1-4]
Indian Creek School Indian Creek School Eagles 13 6 9 7 35 Jack Woolls '18 [1-4]
Malcolm 'Cal' Morris-Berlin '22 [1-2]
Olivia Boucher '21 [3-4]
Kent Island High School Kent Island High School Buccaneers 1 8 8 10 12 38 Doug Macdonald '19 [1-2]
Elan Fisher '19 [3-4]
Riley Van Liew '20 [1-2]
Thomas Moulden '20 [3-4]
Broadneck High School Broadneck High School Bruins 10 10 11 8 39 Josh Becker '20
Katie White '20
Severna Park Severna Park Falcons 9 13 8 11 41 Douglas Patrick '20
Pierre Auchincloss '21
Kent Island High School Kent Island High School Buccaneers 2 7 11 12 13 43 Aliya Berger '20 [1-2]
Bill Kennedy '21 [3-4]
Mary Macdonald '21 [1-4]
Archbishop Spalding Archbishop Spalding Cavaliers 12 12 13 10 47 Patrick Fichtner '19
Brennan Flood '19
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.210+0.21
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2018 (3 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A
Annapolis High SchoolAnnapolis High School Panthers1133
Archbishop SpaldingArchbishop Spalding Cavaliers2244
Boys LatinBoys Latin Lakers3355
Broadneck High SchoolBroadneck High School Bruins4466
Great Mills High SchoolGreat Mills High School Hornets5577
Indian Creek SchoolIndian Creek School Eagles6688
Kent Island High SchoolKent Island High School Buccaneers 17799
Kent Island High SchoolKent Island High School Buccaneers 2881010
North East River High SchoolNorth East River High School Road Warriors991111
Severn SchoolSevern School Admirals10101212
Severna ParkSeverna Park Falcons11111313
St. Mary's High School (MD)St. Mary's High School (MD) Saints121211
Towson High SchoolTowson High School Generals131322

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B
Annapolis High SchoolAnnapolis High School Panthers2244
Archbishop SpaldingArchbishop Spalding Cavaliers3355
Boys LatinBoys Latin Lakers4466
Broadneck High SchoolBroadneck High School Bruins5577
Great Mills High SchoolGreat Mills High School Hornets6688
Indian Creek SchoolIndian Creek School Eagles7799
Kent Island High SchoolKent Island High School Buccaneers 1881010
Kent Island High SchoolKent Island High School Buccaneers 2991111
North East River High SchoolNorth East River High School Road Warriors10101212
Severn SchoolSevern School Admirals11111313
Severna ParkSeverna Park Falcons121211
St. Mary's High School (MD)St. Mary's High School (MD) Saints131322
Towson High SchoolTowson High School Generals1133
School / Team SkipperCrew
Annapolis High School Annapolis High School Cole Canuel '22
Panthers Carter O'Neill '20 [1-2]
Josiah Chase '21 [3-4]
Isabella Fadullon '21 [1-4]
Archbishop Spalding Archbishop Spalding Griffin Richardson '21
Cavaliers Patrick Fichtner '19 Brennan Flood '19
Boys Latin Boys Latin Blake Vogel '21 Helena Ware '18
Lakers William Dryer '20 Hailey Austin '20
Broadneck High School Broadneck High School Morgan Carew '21 [1-4] Josh Becker '20 [1-2]
Caitlin Rosner '21 [3-4]
Bruins Josh Becker '20 Katie White '20
Great Mills High School Great Mills High School Nico Funya '18 Olivia Sowa '20
Hornets Dale Vanmeter '19 Ryan Lacey '18
Indian Creek School Indian Creek School Ally Snead '19 Adeline Mock '22
Eagles Jack Woolls '18 [1-4] Malcolm 'Cal' Morris-Berlin '22 [1-2]
Olivia Boucher '21 [3-4]
Kent Island High School Kent Island High School Crispin Blamphin '18 Katie Norman '19
Buccaneers 1 Doug Macdonald '19 [1-2]
Elan Fisher '19 [3-4]
Riley Van Liew '20 [1-2]
Thomas Moulden '20 [3-4]
Kent Island High School Kent Island High School Corbin Voorhes '21 [1-4] Samuel Irizarray '21 [1-2]
Chase O'Malley '22 [3-4]
Buccaneers 2 Aliya Berger '20 [1-2]
Bill Kennedy '21 [3-4]
Mary Macdonald '21 [1-4]
North East River High School North East River High School Iain Shand '19 Lauren O'Neill '20
Road Warriors Alex Walters '18 Elizabeth Cottage '21
Severn School Severn School Teddy Cromwell '20 Hayden Lamb '20
Admirals Zander King '21 Charlie Granitto '20
Severna Park Severna Park Connor Killeen '21 [1-4] Janie Powell '21 [1-2]
Jack Alpert '21 [3-4]
Falcons Douglas Patrick '20 Pierre Auchincloss '21
St. Mary's High School (MD) St. Mary's High School (MD) Andrew Tollefson '22 Jessica Groblewski '21
Saints Cole Wiegand '21 [1-4] Lucy Duckett '21 [1-2]
Tyler Hughes '22 [3-4]
Towson High School Towson High School Connor Vogel '20 Michael Buscemi '19
Generals Ethan Rushlow '20 [1-4] Conner Sciullo '21 [1-2]
Marina Dryer '21 [3-4]

Conditions — 05/12/2018 (8am–6pm)

🌤️Partly cloudy
Humidity 73%  ·  Pressure 1016.8 hPa

Temperature

72°F
↑ 80°F   ↓ 59°F
Feels like 77°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
3.7 kn
avg  ·  max 6.1 kn
Gusts to 23.5 kn
From SE (136°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover68% Sunshine10.0 hrs Humidity73% Pressure1016.8 hPa Rain0.13 in

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: SE 7 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Boys Latin/Towson: a typical day (+0.01)
Nothing in the breeze favours either side; expect results to follow the ratings about as usual.
Fleet adjustment +0.07 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.08
Actual: a strongly underdogs’ day (−0.48 ± 0.14)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.01 means a rating gap counts about 1% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Boys Latin/Towson by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 1 labelled days at Boys Latin/Towson, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →