Severna Park '20
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.10 (fleet 0.17) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.01 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 0–18 (0%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2019 | 1 | 0–7 | — |
| Fall 2018 | 2 | 0–11 | — |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 3 graded regattas (18 matches) the record is 0–18 against 2.1 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−2.1). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 3 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 3 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019-04-06 | MDISA Team Race Qualifier | skipper | 0.30 | -2.70 | 0–7 | 0.6 | ≤−3.00 | 0.8 | >99% |
| 2018-10-27 | 2018 MDISA Fall Team Race Championship | skipper | 0.15 | -2.85 | 0–8 | 1.3 | ≤−3.00 | 1.9 | >99% |
| 2018-09-22 | BCSC Fall 2018 JV Team Race | skipper | 0.06 | -2.94 | 0–3 | 0.2 | ≤−3.00 | 0.2 | >99% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fall 2019 Team page Season | |||||
| MDISA Varsity at BCSC | Skipper | A | 1 | 16.0 | — |
| MDISA Fleet Race - 9/28 | Skipper | B | 2 | 13.5 | -1.82 |
| 2019 Fall Varsity Fleet Race 1 | Skipper | B | 4 | 9.5 | 0.26 |
| Spring 2019 Team page Season | |||||
| SSPP JV Regatta | Skipper | A | 6 | 8.3 | 0.30 |
| MDISA Team Race Qualifier | Skipper | TR | 7 | 0% | — |
| MDISA Kent Island JV Regatta | Skipper | A | 4 | 7.2 | 0.07 |
| Fall 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| Kent Island JV #1 | Skipper | A | 5 | 5.4 | 0.30 |
| BCSC Fall 2018 JV Team Race | Skipper | TR | 6 | 17% | — |
| BCSC 2018 Fall JV | Skipper | A | 6 | 11.3 | -1.40 |
| 2018 MDISA Fall Team Race Championship | Skipper | TR | 8 | 0% | — |
| Spring 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| EYC JV Spring Regatta | Crew | B | 4 | 1.0 | — |
| DC Sail JV Fleet Race | Skipper | B | 7 | 8.0 | -0.49 |
| BCSC JV #2 | Skipper | B | 4 | 10.2 | -0.99 |
| Fall 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| Kent Island JV | Crew | B | 2 | 5.0 | — |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
To have this profile removed, email quinnbrighton2005@gmail.com.
