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BCSC 2018 Fall JV

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 North East River High School North East River High School Road Warriors 11 11 22
2 Severn School Severn School Admirals 9 26 35
3 St. Mary's High School (MD) St. Mary's High School (MD) Saints 21 15 36
4 Sts. Peter & Paul Sts. Peter & Paul Sabres 46 37 83
5 Annapolis High School Annapolis High School Panthers 51 37 88
6 Varsity Varsity Varsity 32 62 94
7 Leonardtown High School Leonardtown High School Raiders 52 51 103
8 Broadneck High School Broadneck High School Bruins 63 42 105
9 Kent Island High School Kent Island High School Buccaneers 42 64 106
10 Archbishop Spalding Archbishop Spalding Cavaliers 46 62 108
11 Indian Creek School Indian Creek School Eagles 56 54 110
12 Severna Park Severna Park Falcons 68 49 117
13 Herons Herons Herons 71 64 135
14 Patuxent Patuxent Panthers 76 68 144
15 Key School Key School Zags 80 80 160
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 TOT Sailors
Severn School Severn School Admirals 1 1 1 2 2 2 9 Teddy Cromwell '20 [1-6]
Rees Tindall '21 [1-4]
Ella May Corckran '22 [5-6]
North East River High School North East River High School Road Warriors 2 2 2 1 3 1 11 Skylor Sweet '22
Isabella Webb '21
St. Mary's High School (MD) St. Mary's High School (MD) Saints 8 3 3 3 1 3 21 Chase Conway '22
Kelly Koerschner '22
Varsity Varsity Varsity 4 7 5 6 6 4 32
Kent Island High School Kent Island High School Buccaneers 3 6 11 9 8 5 42 Corbin Voorhes '21 [1-4]
Doug Macdonald '19 [5-6]
Mary Macdonald '21 [1-2]
Bill Kennedy '21 [3-4]
Riley Van Liew '20 [5-6]
Sts. Peter & Paul Sts. Peter & Paul Sabres 7 11 4 4 5 15 46 Matthew Collinson '20 [1-6]
Tony Evans '20 [1-2, 5-6]
Alexander Harkowa '21 [3-4]
Archbishop Spalding Archbishop Spalding Cavaliers 9 8 6 7 7 9 46 Seamus Seerey '20
Pierce Rizzo '22
Annapolis High School Annapolis High School Panthers DSQ 10 9 5 4 7 51 Cole Canuel '22
Asha Myers '22
Leonardtown High School Leonardtown High School Raiders 10 9 8 10 9 6 52 Addison Musick '20
Hannah Davis '20
Indian Creek School Indian Creek School Eagles 5 4 7 13 15 12 56 Will Morrissey '19
Malcolm 'Cal' Morris-Berlin '22
Broadneck High School Broadneck High School Bruins 6 5 DNF 15 10 11 63 Jon Weed '22 [1-6]
Emilie Orendorff '22 [1-3]
Tyler Hughes '22 [4-6]
Severna Park Severna Park Falcons 12 13 10 11 12 10 68 Douglas Patrick '20
Piper Shrout '22
Herons Herons Herons 11 12 13 8 14 13 71
Patuxent Patuxent Panthers 13 14 DNF 14 11 8 76 Henry Meiser '23 [1, 3-6]
Megan Roberts '20 [2]
Megan Roberts '20 [1, 3-6]
Henry Meiser '23 [2]
Key School Key School Zags 14 15 12 12 13 14 80 Stella Kim '23
Jacqueline Mednick '22
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 TOT Sailors
North East River High School North East River High School Road Warriors 2 1 3 1 3 1 11 Iain Shand '19
Lilliana Webb '23
St. Mary's High School (MD) St. Mary's High School (MD) Saints 4 2 2 2 2 3 15 Andrew Tollefson '22 [1-6]
Ava Hope- Ross '22 [1-2]
Cole Wiegand '21 [3-6]
Severn School Severn School Admirals 3 3 1 DNF 1 2 26 Zander King '21
Raam Fox '22
Sts. Peter & Paul Sts. Peter & Paul Sabres 1 6 6 6 6 12 37 Ole Singelstad '21 [1-4]
Mary Nolan '21 [5-6]
Sarah Rosa '20 [1-6]
Annapolis High School Annapolis High School Panthers 6 9 4 8 4 6 37 Josiah Chase '21
Sam White '23
Broadneck High School Broadneck High School Bruins 5 4 5 3 11 14 42 Paul Speca '22 [1-3]
Sam Tucker '22 [4-6]
Katie White '20 [1-3]
Lili Taber '22 [4-6]
Severna Park Severna Park Falcons 8 10 13 4 5 9 49 Zach Hammel '21
Janie Powell '21
Leonardtown High School Leonardtown High School Raiders 7 5 12 13 7 7 51 Tehya Gaines '21
Carlie Monk '21
Indian Creek School Indian Creek School Eagles 9 8 11 14 8 4 54 Maeve Drury '19
Olivia Boucher '21
Varsity Varsity Varsity 10 13 8 12 9 10 62
Archbishop Spalding Archbishop Spalding Cavaliers 11 12 7 9 10 13 62 Alex Treff '22 [1-6]
Michael Hinrichs '22 [1-3]
Ryan Wood '22 [4-6]
Herons Herons Herons 12 11 14 10 12 5 64
Kent Island High School Kent Island High School Buccaneers BKD 7 9 5 DNF DNS 64 Doug Macdonald '19 [1-2]
Aliya Berger '20 [3-6]
Aliya Berger '20 [1-2]
Catherine Valentino '22 [3-6]
Patuxent Patuxent Panthers 13 14 10 7 13 11 68 Derick Fahnestock '22 [1, 3-6]
Perrin Hupp '20 [2]
Perrin Hupp '20 [1, 3-6]
Derick Fahnestock '22 [2]
Key School Key School Zags DNF DNS 15 11 14 8 80 No Show
No Show
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.110+0.11
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2018 (1 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A
Annapolis High SchoolAnnapolis High School Panthers113355
Archbishop SpaldingArchbishop Spalding Cavaliers224466
Broadneck High SchoolBroadneck High School Bruins335577
Indian Creek SchoolIndian Creek School Eagles557799
Kent Island High SchoolKent Island High School Buccaneers66881010
Key SchoolKey School Zags77991111
Leonardtown High SchoolLeonardtown High School Raiders8810101212
North East River High SchoolNorth East River High School Road Warriors9911111313
PatuxentPatuxent Panthers101012121414
Sts. Peter & PaulSts. Peter & Paul Sabres111113131515
Severn SchoolSevern School Admirals1212141411
Severna ParkSeverna Park Falcons1313151522
St. Mary's High School (MD)St. Mary's High School (MD) Saints14141133
HeronsHerons Herons446688
VarsityVarsity Varsity15152244

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B
Annapolis High SchoolAnnapolis High School Panthers224466
Archbishop SpaldingArchbishop Spalding Cavaliers335577
Broadneck High SchoolBroadneck High School Bruins446688
Indian Creek SchoolIndian Creek School Eagles66881010
Kent Island High SchoolKent Island High School Buccaneers77991111
Key SchoolKey School Zags8810101212
Leonardtown High SchoolLeonardtown High School Raiders9911111313
North East River High SchoolNorth East River High School Road Warriors101012121414
PatuxentPatuxent Panthers111113131515
Sts. Peter & PaulSts. Peter & Paul Sabres1212141411
Severn SchoolSevern School Admirals1313151522
Severna ParkSeverna Park Falcons14141133
St. Mary's High School (MD)St. Mary's High School (MD) Saints15152244
HeronsHerons Herons557799
VarsityVarsity Varsity113355
School / Team SkipperCrew
Annapolis High School Annapolis High School Cole Canuel '22 Asha Myers '22
Panthers Josiah Chase '21 Sam White '23
Archbishop Spalding Archbishop Spalding Seamus Seerey '20 Pierce Rizzo '22
Cavaliers Alex Treff '22 [1-6] Michael Hinrichs '22 [1-3]
Ryan Wood '22 [4-6]
Broadneck High School Broadneck High School Jon Weed '22 [1-6] Emilie Orendorff '22 [1-3]
Tyler Hughes '22 [4-6]
Bruins Paul Speca '22 [1-3]
Sam Tucker '22 [4-6]		 Katie White '20 [1-3]
Lili Taber '22 [4-6]
Indian Creek School Indian Creek School Will Morrissey '19 Malcolm 'Cal' Morris-Berlin '22
Eagles Maeve Drury '19 Olivia Boucher '21
Kent Island High School Kent Island High School Corbin Voorhes '21 [1-4]
Doug Macdonald '19 [5-6]		 Mary Macdonald '21 [1-2]
Bill Kennedy '21 [3-4]
Riley Van Liew '20 [5-6]
Buccaneers Doug Macdonald '19 [1-2]
Aliya Berger '20 [3-6]		 Aliya Berger '20 [1-2]
Catherine Valentino '22 [3-6]
Key School Key School Stella Kim '23 Jacqueline Mednick '22
Zags No Show No Show
Leonardtown High School Leonardtown High School Addison Musick '20 Hannah Davis '20
Raiders Tehya Gaines '21 Carlie Monk '21
North East River High School North East River High School Skylor Sweet '22 Isabella Webb '21
Road Warriors Iain Shand '19 Lilliana Webb '23
Patuxent Patuxent Henry Meiser '23 [1, 3-6]
Megan Roberts '20 [2]		 Megan Roberts '20 [1, 3-6]
Henry Meiser '23 [2]
Panthers Derick Fahnestock '22 [1, 3-6]
Perrin Hupp '20 [2]		 Perrin Hupp '20 [1, 3-6]
Derick Fahnestock '22 [2]
Severn School Severn School Teddy Cromwell '20 [1-6] Rees Tindall '21 [1-4]
Ella May Corckran '22 [5-6]
Admirals Zander King '21 Raam Fox '22
Severna Park Severna Park Douglas Patrick '20 Piper Shrout '22
Falcons Zach Hammel '21 Janie Powell '21
St. Mary's High School (MD) St. Mary's High School (MD) Chase Conway '22 Kelly Koerschner '22
Saints Andrew Tollefson '22 [1-6] Ava Hope- Ross '22 [1-2]
Cole Wiegand '21 [3-6]
Sts. Peter & Paul Sts. Peter & Paul Matthew Collinson '20 [1-6] Tony Evans '20 [1-2, 5-6]
Alexander Harkowa '21 [3-4]
Sabres Ole Singelstad '21 [1-4]
Mary Nolan '21 [5-6]		 Sarah Rosa '20 [1-6]

Conditions — 09/23/2018 (8am–6pm)

🌧️Slight rain
Humidity 93%  ·  Pressure 1023.1 hPa

Temperature

61°F
↑ 64°F   ↓ 58°F
Feels like 62°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
4.7 kn
avg  ·  max 5.4 kn
Gusts to 11.5 kn
From NNE (29°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover100% Sunshine0.0 hrs Humidity93% Pressure1023.1 hPa Rain0.48 in

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: NE 8 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Baltimore County Sailing Center: a favourites’ day (+0.06)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment +0.09 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.15
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.19 ± 0.14)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.06 means a rating gap counts about 5% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Baltimore County Sailing Center by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 11 labelled days at Baltimore County Sailing Center, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →