Broadneck High School '22
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.75 (fleet 2.84) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 7–18 (28%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2021 | 1 | 5–5 | — |
| Fall 2019 | 2 | 2–13 | — |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 3 graded regattas (25 matches) the record is 7–18 against 8.7 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−1.7). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 1 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 2 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021-04-17 | MDISA Team Race Qualifier | skipper | 1.73 | 1.56 | 5–5 | 5.3 | −0.17 | 0.0 | 71% |
| 2019-10-26 | MDISA Team Qualifier | skipper | 1.26 | -1.74 | 0–5 | 1.4 | ≤−3.00 | 2.3 | >99% |
| 2019-10-05 | MDISA Team Race Series 2 | skipper | 1.14 | 1.07 | 2–8 | 2.1 | −0.08 | 0.0 | 67% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fall 2021 Team page Season | |||||
| MDISA Season Opener Gold | Skipper | A | 4 | 4.0 | 1.51 |
| MDISA Fleet Qualifier @SSA | Skipper | A | 10 | 2.4 | 2.40 |
| Spring 2021 Team page Season | |||||
| MDISA SSA Gold Fleet | Skipper | A | 6 | 7.8 | 0.67 |
| MDISA Team Race Qualifier | Skipper | TR | 10 | 50% | — |
| MDISA SSA Gold Fleet Regatta | Skipper | A | 4 | 5.0 | 2.02 |
| MDISA Gold at Chesapeake Experience | Skipper | A, B | 6 | 3.3 | A 1.12 · B 3.23 |
| MDISA Fleet Qualifier | Skipper | A | 9 | 5.8 | 1.11 |
| Fall 2019 Team page Season | |||||
| MDISA Team Race Series 2 | Skipper | TR | 10 | 20% | — |
| MDISA Team Qualifier | Skipper | TR | 5 | 0% | — |
| Spring 2019 Team page Season | |||||
| SSPP JV Regatta | Skipper | A | 6 | 4.3 | 1.67 |
| NERHS JV Regatta | Skipper | A | 5 | 4.0 | 1.48 |
| MDISA SCC JV Fleet race | Skipper | A | 5 | 4.0 | 1.71 |
| MDISA JV Fleet Regatta St.Mary's Ryken | Skipper | A | 5 | 3.6 | 1.75 |
| Fall 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| SCC JV Fleet Regatta | Skipper | B | 5 | 6.4 | -0.05 |
| SCC JV regatta | Skipper | A | 5 | 11.2 | -0.68 |
| MDISA JV Fleet Race | Skipper | A | 4 | 6.0 | 0.61 |
| Kent Island Fall JV #2 | Skipper | A | 4 | 2.8 | 2.21 |
| Fall MDISA JV Champs | Skipper | A | 5 | 2.2 | 3.77 |
| BCSC 2018 Fall JV | Skipper | A | 5 | 9.4 | -0.53 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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