MDISA JV Fleet Race

HostGeorgetown Day/Walt Whitman
Date10/07/2018
TypeIn-League
BoatCFJ
Scoring2 Divisions

#	School	Team	A	B	TOT
1	North East River High School	Road Warriors	13	5	18
2	Severn School	Admirals	5	15	20
3	Saints	Saints	12	15	27
4	Leonardtown High School	Raiders 1	19	25	44
5	Gunston	Herons	26	34	60
6	Sts. Peter & Paul	Sabres	54	15	69
7	Broadneck High School	Bruins	24	47	71
8	Panthers	Panthers	38	37	75
9	Georgetown Day School	Georgetown Day	52	24	76
10	Leonardtown High School	Raiders 2	36	42	78
11	Cavaliers	Cavaliers	40	45	85
12	Unregistered-MASSA	Pirates	38	48	86
13	Patuxent	Panthers	48	40	88
14	Walt Whitman High School	Varsity	56	42	98
15	Falcons	Falcons	49	54	103
16	Great Mills High School	Hornets	44	66	110
17	Key School	Zags	58	58	116

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	TOT	Sailors
Severn School	Admirals	1	1	2	1	5	Teddy Cromwell '20 Hayden Lamb '20
Saints	Saints	4	2	3	3	12
North East River High School	Road Warriors	2	8	1	2	13	Skylor Sweet '22 Isabella Webb '21
Leonardtown High School	Raiders 1	3	3	6	7	19	Tehya Gaines '21 Hannah Davis '20
Broadneck High School	Bruins	9	7	4	4	24	Jon Weed '22 Emilie Orendorff '22
Gunston	Herons	5	4	12	5	26	Severin Schut '21 Charles Shifrin '21
Leonardtown High School	Raiders 2	6	12	5	13	36	Bay Macquilliam '21 Conner Anderson '21
Unregistered-MASSA	Pirates	8	9	10	11	38	Wynne W '22 [1-2] Robert Mailley '20 [3-4] Alex Mcelwee '22 [1-2]
Panthers	Panthers	10	5	7	16	38
Cavaliers	Cavaliers	7	10	13	10	40
Great Mills High School	Hornets	16	11	11	6	44	Julia Sullivan '22 Macy Mccombs '19
Patuxent	Panthers	11	14	14	9	48	Henry Meiser '23 Grace Wilson '23
Falcons	Falcons	12	6	17	14	49
Georgetown Day School	Georgetown Day	13	13	9	17	52	Natalie Armedia '22 [1-4] Ethan Cohen '22 [1-2] Akash Harjivan '20 [3-4]
Sts. Peter & Paul	Sabres	15	15	16	8	54	Ole Singelstad '21 Joshua Sambrano '22
Walt Whitman High School	Varsity	17	16	8	15	56	Sophie B '20 [1-2] Henry Myrick '20 [3-4] Ethan Cohen '22 [1-2] Sophie B '20 [3-4]
Key School	Zags	14	17	15	12	58	Stella Kim '23 Isabel Larosa '23

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	TOT	Sailors
North East River High School	Road Warriors	1	1	2	1	5	Ian Ronald '21 Jamie Cottage '23
Sts. Peter & Paul	Sabres	2	2	7	4	15	Mary Nolan '21 Sunny Sturmer '19
Severn School	Admirals	3	3	1	8	15	Patrick Dolan '21 Raam Fox '22
Saints	Saints	4	5	3	3	15
Georgetown Day School	Georgetown Day	10	4	4	6	24	Jack Kunkel '22 Zach Lighthammer '22
Leonardtown High School	Raiders 1	6	12	5	2	25	Gabe Gutierrez '20 Kyle Edwards '20
Gunston	Herons	5	7	9	13	34	Helen Boone '21 [1-4] Avy Aubin '21 [1-2, 4] Hannah Worth '21 [3]
Panthers	Panthers	11	6	6	14	37
Patuxent	Panthers	9	11	8	12	40	Derick Fahnestock '22 John Kollar '24
Leonardtown High School	Raiders 2	8	10	13	11	42	Andrew Norris '20 Carlie Monk '21
Walt Whitman High School	Varsity	15	8	14	5	42	Bryce Kojak '22 Sarah Henderson '20
Cavaliers	Cavaliers	13	13	10	9	45
Broadneck High School	Bruins	12	14	11	10	47	Sam Tucker '22 Tyler Hughes '22
Unregistered-MASSA	Pirates	16	9	16	7	48	Spencer Gaus '22 Thomas Leggett '22
Falcons	Falcons	7	16	15	16	54
Key School	Zags	14	15	12	17	58	Jacqueline Mednick '22 No Show
Great Mills High School	Hornets	17	17	17	15	66	Clare Greenwell '22 Hannah Collins '24

Boat Speed Analyzer

SlowExpected boat effectFast

−0.100+0.10

Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2018 (2 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team	1A	2A	3A	4A
Panthers Panthers	1	1	3	3
Cavaliers Cavaliers	2	2	4	4
Broadneck High School Bruins	3	3	5	5
Georgetown Day School Georgetown Day	4	4	6	6
Great Mills High School Hornets	5	5	7	7
Key School Zags	7	7	9	9
Leonardtown High School Raiders 1	18	18	10	10
Leonardtown High School Raiders 2	9	9	11	11
North East River High School Road Warriors	10	10	12	12
Patuxent Panthers	11	11	13	13
Sts. Peter & Paul Sabres	12	12	14	14
Severn School Admirals	13	13	15	15
Falcons Falcons	14	14	16	16
Saints Saints	15	15	17	17
Gunston Herons	6	6	18	18
Unregistered-MASSA Pirates	16	16	1	1
Walt Whitman High School Varsity	17	17	2	2

Division B

Team	1B	2B	3B	4B
Panthers Panthers	2	2	2	4
Cavaliers Cavaliers	3	3	3	5
Broadneck High School Bruins	4	4	4	6
Georgetown Day School Georgetown Day	5	5	5	7
Great Mills High School Hornets	6	6	6	18
Key School Zags	18	18	18	10
Leonardtown High School Raiders 1	9	9	9	11
Leonardtown High School Raiders 2	10	10	10	12
North East River High School Road Warriors	11	11	11	13
Patuxent Panthers	12	12	12	14
Sts. Peter & Paul Sabres	13	13	13	15
Severn School Admirals	14	14	14	16
Falcons Falcons	15	15	15	17
Saints Saints	16	16	16	1
Gunston Herons	7	7	7	9
Unregistered-MASSA Pirates	17	17	17	2
Walt Whitman High School Varsity	1	1	1	3

School / Team	Skipper	Crew
Broadneck High School	Jon Weed '22	Emilie Orendorff '22
Bruins	Sam Tucker '22	Tyler Hughes '22
Georgetown Day School	Natalie Armedia '22 [1-4]	Ethan Cohen '22 [1-2] Akash Harjivan '20 [3-4]
Georgetown Day	Jack Kunkel '22	Zach Lighthammer '22
Great Mills High School	Julia Sullivan '22	Macy Mccombs '19
Hornets	Clare Greenwell '22	Hannah Collins '24
Gunston	Severin Schut '21	Charles Shifrin '21
Herons	Helen Boone '21 [1-4]	Avy Aubin '21 [1-2, 4] Hannah Worth '21 [3]
Key School	Stella Kim '23	Isabel Larosa '23
Zags	Jacqueline Mednick '22	No Show
Leonardtown High School	Tehya Gaines '21	Hannah Davis '20
Raiders 1	Gabe Gutierrez '20	Kyle Edwards '20
Leonardtown High School	Bay Macquilliam '21	Conner Anderson '21
Raiders 2	Andrew Norris '20	Carlie Monk '21
North East River High School	Skylor Sweet '22	Isabella Webb '21
Road Warriors	Ian Ronald '21	Jamie Cottage '23
Patuxent	Henry Meiser '23	Grace Wilson '23
Panthers	Derick Fahnestock '22	John Kollar '24
Severn School	Teddy Cromwell '20	Hayden Lamb '20
Admirals	Patrick Dolan '21	Raam Fox '22
Sts. Peter & Paul	Ole Singelstad '21	Joshua Sambrano '22
Sabres	Mary Nolan '21	Sunny Sturmer '19
Unregistered-MASSA	Wynne W '22 [1-2] Robert Mailley '20 [3-4]	Alex Mcelwee '22 [1-2]
Pirates	Spencer Gaus '22	Thomas Leggett '22
Walt Whitman High School	Sophie B '20 [1-2] Henry Myrick '20 [3-4]	Ethan Cohen '22 [1-2] Sophie B '20 [3-4]
Varsity	Bryce Kojak '22	Sarah Henderson '20

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
Should the best sailor sail A?Add your two skippers’ ratings and compare with the field; above it the better skipper belongs in A.
Are the boats even?Boats differ by about 0.3 places a race; fleets are uneven from day one.
Which venues get orderly in a breeze?Some venues get orderly when it blows, a few get messier; the fleet comes first.

All notes →

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MDISA JV Fleet Race

Division A

Division B

From the notes