Sts. Peter & Paul '19
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.53 (fleet 0.86) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 4–18 (18%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2018 | 1 | 1–6 | — |
| Fall 2017 | 1 | 0–8 | — |
| Spring 2017 | 1 | 3–4 | — |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 3 graded regattas (22 matches) the record is 4–18 against 4.6 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−0.6). 1 regatta clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 2 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 8 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018-03-18 | DC Sail TR | skipper | 0.55 | -1.54 | 1–6 | 2.9 | −2.09 | 2.1 | 98% |
| 2017-10-08 | MDISA Fall Team Race Championship | skipper | 0.52 | -2.48 | 0–8 | 1.0 | ≤−3.00 | 1.5 | >99% |
| 2017-03-12 | SSA Team Race Regatta | skipper | 0.35 | 3.38 | 3–4 | 0.6 | +3.03 | 4.8 | 1% |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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