SSPP Fleet Race

HostTred Avon Yacht Club
Date03/24/2018
TypeIn-District
BoatCFJ
Scoring2 Divisions

#	School	Team	A	B	TOT
1	Severn School	Admirals	27	23	50
2	South River High School	Seahawks	38	13	51
3	Archbishop Spalding	Cavaliers	10	48	58
4	Annapolis High School	Panthers	23	38	61
5	St. Mary's High School (MD)	Saints	35	32	67
6	Key School	Zags	37	36	73
7	Broadneck High School	Bruins	38	57	95
8	Severna Park	Falcons	53	43	96
9	Yorktown High School	Patriots	55	50	105
10	Bishop O'Connell High School	Knights	61	60	121
11	Sts. Peter & Paul	Sabres	66	58	124
12	Leonardtown High School	Raiders	66	71	137
13	Boys Latin	Lakers	77	68	145
14	Walt Whitman High School	Varsity	78	71	149
15	Great Mills High School	Hornets	79	80	159
16	Towson High School	Generals	93	79	172
17	Gunston	Herons	103 MRP	112 MRP	215 MRP

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	TOT	Sailors
Archbishop Spalding	Cavaliers	1	1	1	1	3	3	10	Jake Vickers '18 Noelle Owen '19
Annapolis High School	Panthers	9	6	3	3	1	1	23	Porter Kavle '18 Ava Walker '20
Severn School	Admirals	2	4	7	5	5	4	27	Mariner Fagan '20 Caroline Mcneil '18
St. Mary's High School (MD)	Saints	3	5	16	2	4	5	35	James Golden '20 Allison Forsyth '18
Key School	Zags	4	3	2	10	8	10	37	Nicholas Papadopoulos '18 Luke Koerschner '20
Broadneck High School	Bruins	5	8	5	6	7	7	38	Katherine Bennett '18 Sean Jahnige '18
South River High School	Seahawks	8	DNF	4	4	2	2	38	Leo Boucher '18 [1-6] Hunter Ward '20 [1-2] Vaughan Hood '20 [3-6]
Severna Park	Falcons	14	7	6	8	9	9	53	Ian Mathiesen '18 Katherine Crawford '18
Yorktown High School	Patriots	13	2	11	11	6	12	55	Colman Schofield '21 Matthew Boothby '21
Bishop O'Connell High School	Knights	7	12	9	9	13	11	61	Peter Lobaugh '20 Will Leggett '18
Sts. Peter & Paul	Sabres	6	13	10	12	10	15	66	Caroline James '20 [1-4] Brandon Westerfield '18 [5-6] Ally Shearon '18 [1-4]
Leonardtown High School	Raiders	11	15	8	14	12	6	66	Daniel Unangst '20 Julia Marino '20
Boys Latin	Lakers	10	11	17	17	14	8	77	Blake Vogel '21 [1-2, 5-6] Olivia Yazigi '20 [3-4] Helena Ware '18 [1-2, 5-6]
Walt Whitman High School	Varsity	15	9	12	13	16	13	78	Friso Grolleman '20 [1-2, 5-6] Will Delong '18 [3-4] Liam Gronda '21 [1-2, 5-6]
Great Mills High School	Hornets	12	10	13	16	11	17	79	Lucy Paskoff '20 Finn Ludwig '23
Towson High School	Generals	16	14	15	15	17	16	93	Ethan Rushlow '20 Marina Dryer '21
Gunston	Herons	17	16	14	7	15	14	103 MRP	No Show No Show

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	TOT	Sailors
South River High School	Seahawks	2	4	2	1	2	2	13	Tyler Mowry '18 [1-6] Rachel O'Neil '20 [1-2] Laurel Bollinger '20 [3-6]
Severn School	Admirals	4	1	1	12	1	4	23	Caroline Bayless '19 Abby Tindall '19
St. Mary's High School (MD)	Saints	12	6	3	5	3	3	32	Michael Bisson '18 [1-6] Henry Andress '18 [1-4] Amelia Johnson '21 [5-6]
Key School	Zags	6	13	5	6	5	1	36	Harrison Reisinger '18 [1-2, 5-6] Will Cornell '21 [3-4] Charles Anderson '21 [1-2, 5-6]
Annapolis High School	Panthers	1	2	12	10	6	7	38	Nicholas Salvesen '18 Kimberly Leonard '18
Severna Park	Falcons	3	8	4	4	10	14	43	Benjamin Podlich '18 Kc Galloway '20
Archbishop Spalding	Cavaliers	7	5	7	8	12	9	48	Jack Irvin '17 Caroline Kelly '19
Yorktown High School	Patriots	14	10	6	2	8	10	50	Megan Gimple '18 [1-6] Ryleigh X '21 [1-2, 5-6] Grady X '20 [3-4]
Broadneck High School	Bruins	10	3	10	11	11	12	57	Emma Snead '19 Lucien Parker '20
Sts. Peter & Paul	Sabres	8	7	8	9	13	13	58	Sunny Sturmer '19 [1-6] Sarah Rosa '20 [1-2] Abby Bridges '20 [3-4] Grady Turner '19 [5-6]
Bishop O'Connell High School	Knights	13	15	11	7	9	5	60	Frank Lucchetti '18 [1-2, 5-6] Aidan Young '20 [3-4] Hannah Leggett '20 [1-2, 5-6]
Boys Latin	Lakers	5	12	16	13	16	6	68	William Dryer '20 Conner Sciullo '21
Walt Whitman High School	Varsity	9	9	15	DNF	4	16	71	Jackson Barlow '20 Ethan Schwartz '20
Leonardtown High School	Raiders	11	14	14	14	7	11	71	Emily Williams '20 Ryan Lacey '18
Towson High School	Generals	16	16	9	16	14	8	79	Connor Vogel '20 [1-2, 5-6] Reese Meyers '22 [3-4] Michael Buscemi '19 [1-2, 5-6]
Great Mills High School	Hornets	17	11	17	3	15	17	80	Mark Morris '18 Nico Funya '18
Gunston	Herons	15	17	13	15	17	15	112 MRP	No Show No Show

Boat Speed Analyzer

SlowExpected boat effectFast

−0.080+0.08

Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2017 (5 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team	1A	2A	3A	4A	5A	6A
Annapolis High School Panthers	1	1	3	3	5	5
Archbishop Spalding Cavaliers	2	2	4	4	6	6
Bishop O'Connell High School Knights	3	3	5	5	7	7
Boys Latin Lakers	4	4	6	6	8	8
Broadneck High School Bruins	5	5	7	7	9	9
Great Mills High School Hornets	6	6	8	8	10	10
Key School Zags	8	8	10	10	12	12
Leonardtown High School Raiders	9	9	11	11	13	13
Sts. Peter & Paul Sabres	10	10	12	12	14	14
Severn School Admirals	11	11	13	13	15	15
Severna Park Falcons	12	12	14	14	16	16
South River High School Seahawks	13	13	15	15	17	17
St. Mary's High School (MD) Saints	14	14	16	16	1	1
Gunston Herons	7	7	9	9	11	11
Towson High School Generals	15	15	17	17	2	2
Walt Whitman High School Varsity	16	16	1	1	3	3
Yorktown High School Patriots	17	17	2	2	4	4

Division B

Team	1B	2B	3B	4B	5B	6B
Annapolis High School Panthers	2	2	4	4	6	6
Archbishop Spalding Cavaliers	3	3	5	5	7	7
Bishop O'Connell High School Knights	4	4	6	6	8	8
Boys Latin Lakers	5	5	7	7	9	9
Broadneck High School Bruins	6	6	8	8	10	10
Great Mills High School Hornets	7	7	9	9	11	11
Key School Zags	9	9	11	11	13	13
Leonardtown High School Raiders	10	10	12	12	14	14
Sts. Peter & Paul Sabres	11	11	13	13	15	15
Severn School Admirals	12	12	14	14	16	16
Severna Park Falcons	13	13	15	15	17	17
South River High School Seahawks	14	14	16	16	1	1
St. Mary's High School (MD) Saints	15	15	17	17	2	2
Gunston Herons	8	8	10	10	12	12
Towson High School Generals	16	16	1	1	3	3
Walt Whitman High School Varsity	17	17	2	2	4	4
Yorktown High School Patriots	1	1	3	3	5	5

School / Team	Skipper	Crew
Annapolis High School	Porter Kavle '18	Ava Walker '20
Panthers	Nicholas Salvesen '18	Kimberly Leonard '18
Archbishop Spalding	Jake Vickers '18	Noelle Owen '19
Cavaliers	Jack Irvin '17	Caroline Kelly '19
Bishop O'Connell High School	Peter Lobaugh '20	Will Leggett '18
Knights	Frank Lucchetti '18 [1-2, 5-6] Aidan Young '20 [3-4]	Hannah Leggett '20 [1-2, 5-6]
Boys Latin	Blake Vogel '21 [1-2, 5-6] Olivia Yazigi '20 [3-4]	Helena Ware '18 [1-2, 5-6]
Lakers	William Dryer '20	Conner Sciullo '21
Broadneck High School	Katherine Bennett '18	Sean Jahnige '18
Bruins	Emma Snead '19	Lucien Parker '20
Great Mills High School	Lucy Paskoff '20	Finn Ludwig '23
Hornets	Mark Morris '18	Nico Funya '18
Gunston	No Show	No Show
Herons	No Show	No Show
Key School	Nicholas Papadopoulos '18	Luke Koerschner '20
Zags	Harrison Reisinger '18 [1-2, 5-6] Will Cornell '21 [3-4]	Charles Anderson '21 [1-2, 5-6]
Leonardtown High School	Daniel Unangst '20	Julia Marino '20
Raiders	Emily Williams '20	Ryan Lacey '18
Severn School	Mariner Fagan '20	Caroline Mcneil '18
Admirals	Caroline Bayless '19	Abby Tindall '19
Severna Park	Ian Mathiesen '18	Katherine Crawford '18
Falcons	Benjamin Podlich '18	Kc Galloway '20
South River High School	Leo Boucher '18 [1-6]	Hunter Ward '20 [1-2] Vaughan Hood '20 [3-6]
Seahawks	Tyler Mowry '18 [1-6]	Rachel O'Neil '20 [1-2] Laurel Bollinger '20 [3-6]
St. Mary's High School (MD)	James Golden '20	Allison Forsyth '18
Saints	Michael Bisson '18 [1-6]	Henry Andress '18 [1-4] Amelia Johnson '21 [5-6]
Sts. Peter & Paul	Caroline James '20 [1-4] Brandon Westerfield '18 [5-6]	Ally Shearon '18 [1-4]
Sabres	Sunny Sturmer '19 [1-6]	Sarah Rosa '20 [1-2] Abby Bridges '20 [3-4] Grady Turner '19 [5-6]
Towson High School	Ethan Rushlow '20	Marina Dryer '21
Generals	Connor Vogel '20 [1-2, 5-6] Reese Meyers '22 [3-4]	Michael Buscemi '19 [1-2, 5-6]
Walt Whitman High School	Friso Grolleman '20 [1-2, 5-6] Will Delong '18 [3-4]	Liam Gronda '21 [1-2, 5-6]
Varsity	Jackson Barlow '20	Ethan Schwartz '20
Yorktown High School	Colman Schofield '21	Matthew Boothby '21
Patriots	Megan Gimple '18 [1-6]	Ryleigh X '21 [1-2, 5-6] Grady X '20 [3-4]

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
Should the best sailor sail A?Add your two skippers’ ratings and compare with the field; above it the better skipper belongs in A.
Are the boats even?Boats differ by about 0.3 places a race; fleets are uneven from day one.
Which venues get orderly in a breeze?Some venues get orderly when it blows, a few get messier; the fleet comes first.

All notes →

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SSPP Fleet Race

Division A

Division B

From the notes