Severna Park '18
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.38 (fleet 2.25) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.01 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 9–29 (24%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2018 | 1 | 1–5 | — |
| Fall 2017 | 1 | 1–7 | — |
| Spring 2017 | 1 | 2–5 | — |
| Fall 2016 | 2 | 5–12 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 5 graded regattas (38 matches) the record is 9–29 against 13.7 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−4.7). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 4 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 7 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018-03-10 | SSA Varsity Team Race | skipper | 1.69 | -0.20 | 1–5 | 2.6 | −1.89 | 1.6 | 98% |
| 2017-10-08 | MDISA Fall Team Race Championship | skipper | 1.72 | -0.73 | 1–7 | 3.3 | −2.44 | 2.8 | 99% |
| 2017-03-12 | SSA Team Race Regatta | skipper | 1.69 | 0.76 | 2–5 | 2.9 | −0.93 | 0.4 | 89% |
| 2016-10-29 | MASSA Fall Team Race Championship | skipper | 1.60 | 2.44 | 5–7 | 3.8 | +0.84 | 0.6 | 29% |
| 2016-10-08 | MDISA Fall Team Race Championship | skipper | 1.53 | -1.47 | 0–5 | 1.1 | ≤−3.00 | 1.6 | >99% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| SSPP Fleet Race | Skipper | A | 6 | 8.8 | 0.44 |
| SSA Varsity Team Race | Skipper | TR | 6 | 17% | — |
| MDISA Fleet Race | Skipper | A | 2 | 8.0 | 0.86 |
| Fall 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| MDISA Fall Team Race Championship | Skipper | TR | 8 | 12% | — |
| MDISA Fall Keelboat Qualifier Keelboat | Crew | A | 4 | 3.0 | — |
| MASSA Silver Fleet Race Championship | Skipper | A | 4 | 6.8 | 1.27 |
| AYC/SSA Varsity Fleet Race | Skipper | A | 1 | 6.0 | — |
| Spring 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| SSA Team Race Regatta | Skipper | TR | 7 | 29% | — |
| Saints Peter & Paul Fleet | Skipper | A | 6 | 5.5 | 0.86 |
| MDISA Spring Fleet Race Championship | Skipper | A | 10 | 7.9 | 0.45 |
| MASSA Spring Silver Champs | Skipper | A | 13 | 5.5 | 1.61 |
| DC Sail Varsity FR | Skipper | A | 4 | 4.2 | 0.77 |
| Fall 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| MDISA FALL CHAMPIONSHIP VARSITY | Skipper | A | 5 | 7.8 | -0.03 |
| MDISA Fall Team Race Championship | Skipper | TR | 7 | 0% | — |
| MASSA Fall Team Race Championship | Skipper | TR | 12 | 42% | — |
| MASSA Fall Fleet Silver Championship | Skipper | B | 7 | 4.6 | 1.82 |
| AYC/SSA Fleet Race | Skipper | A | 12 | 3.6 | 2.07 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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